Can We Predict the Financial Markets Based on Google's Search Queries?

We look into the interaction of Google's search queries and several aspects of international equity markets. Using a novel methodology for selecting words and a vector autoregressive modeling approach, we study whether the search queries of finance‐related words can have an impact on returns, volatility of returns and traded volume in four different English‐speaking countries. We identify several words whose search frequency is associated with changes in the dependent variables. In particular, we find that increases in search queries including the word stock predict increased volatility and decreased index returns over the next week. On top of that, we investigate the performance of a market‐timing strategy based on the search frequency of this word and benchmark it against random words from the Word‐Net database and a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy. The results of this empirical application are positive and particularly stronger during the global crisis of 2009. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microhabitat selection in the sand recluse spider (Sicarius thomisoides): the effect of rock size and temperature

In spiders, temperature is considered an important environmental variable for microhabitat selection. In this study, we evaluated the effect of temperature and rock size on the presence of the sand recluse spider Sicarius thomisoides and the degree of selectivity in different locations. This species is a large spider that lives under rocks in desert and semi-desert climates and is particularly active during the summer. In Chile, these spiders can be found at both coastal and inland locations under different thermal conditions, where usually the temperatures are lower near the coast. If large-scale climatic conditions are important for this species, they may be expected to select lower rock temperatures on the coast than at inland locations. In addition, we would expect that the spiders would choose larger rocks in inland compared to coast locations, which reduce the effect of high temperatures. We found that the probability of finding individuals of this species increased according to rock temperature and rock size in the field. Our results suggest that S. thomisoides prefers larger and warmer rocks to shelter under during the day, this selectivity being similar at both coastal and inland locations. Thus, this species tends to select rocks with the same thermal and structural conditions, independent of the climatic conditions.     

Increased migration of olfactory ensheathing cells secreting the Nogo receptor ectodomain over inhibitory substrates and lesioned spinal cord

Olfactory ensheathing cell (OEC) transplantation emerged some years ago as a promising therapeutic strategy to repair injured spinal cord. However, inhibitory molecules are present for long periods of time in lesioned spinal cord, inhibiting both OEC migration and axonal regrowth. Two families of these molecules, chondroitin sulphate proteoglycans (CSPG) and myelin-derived inhibitors (MAIs), are able to trigger inhibitory responses in lesioned axons. Mounting evidence suggests that OEC migration is inhibited by myelin. Here we demonstrate that OEC migration is largely inhibited by CSPGs and that inhibition can be overcome by the bacterial enzyme Chondroitinase ABC. In parallel, we have generated a stable OEC cell line overexpressing the Nogo receptor (NgR) ectodomain to reduce MAI-associated inhibition in vitro and in vivo. Results indicate that engineered cells migrate longer distances than unmodified OECs over myelin or oligodendrocyte-myelin glycoprotein (OMgp)-coated substrates. In addition, they also show improved migration in lesioned spinal cord. Our results provide new insights toward the improvement of the mechanisms of action and optimization of OEC-based cell therapy for spinal cord lesion.     

Massive glycosaminoglycan-dependent entry of Trp-containing cell-penetrating peptides induced by exogenous sphingomyelinase or cholesterol depletion

Among non-invasive cell delivery strategies, cell-penetrating peptide (CPP) vectors represent interesting new tools. To get fundamental knowledge about the still debated internalisation mechanisms of these peptides, we modified the membrane content of cells, typically by hydrolysis of sphingomyelin or depletion of cholesterol from the membrane outer leaflet. We quantified and visualised the effect of these viable cell surface treatments on the internalisation efficiency of different CPPs, among which the most studied Tat, R₉, penetratin and analogues, that all carry the N-terminal biotin-Gly₄ tag cargo. Under these cell membrane treatments, only penetratin and R₆W₃ underwent a massive glycosaminoglycan (GAG)-dependent entry in cells. Internalisation of the other peptides was only slightly increased, similarly in the absence or the presence of GAGs for R₉, and only in the presence of GAGs for Tat and R₆L₃. Ceramide formation (or cholesterol depletion) is known to lead to the reorganisation of membrane lipid domains into larger platforms, which can serve as a trap and cluster receptors. These results show that GAG clustering, enhanced by formation of ceramide, is efficiently exploited by penetratin and R₆W₃, which contains Trp residues in their sequence but not Tat, R₉ and R₆L₃. Hence, these data shed new lights on the differences in the internalisation mechanism and pathway of these peptides that are widely used in delivery of cargo molecules.     

Forecasting Longevity Gains Using a Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Model

In this paper a multivariate time series model using the seemingly unrelated time series equation (SUTSE) framework is proposed to forecast longevity gains. The proposed model is represented in state space form and uses Kalman filtering to estimate the unobservable components and fixed parameters. We apply the model both to male mortality rates in Portugal and the USA. Our results compare favorably, in terms of mean absolute percentage error, in‐sample and out‐of‐sample, to those obtained by the Lee–Carter method and some of its extensions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A decision rule to minimize daily capital charges in forecasting value‐at‐risk

Under the Basel II Accord, banks and other authorized deposit‐taking institutions (ADIs) have to communicate their daily risk estimates to the monetary authorities at the beginning of the trading day, using a variety of value‐at‐risk (VaR) models to measure risk. Sometimes the risk estimates communicated using these models are too high, thereby leading to large capital requirements and high capital costs. At other times, the risk estimates are too low, leading to excessive violations, so that realized losses are above the estimated risk. In this paper we analyze the profit‐maximizing problem of an ADI subject to capital requirements under the Basel II Accord as ADIs have to choose an optimal VaR reporting strategy that minimizes daily capital charges. Accordingly, we suggest a dynamic communication and forecasting strategy that responds to violations in a discrete and instantaneous manner, while adapting more slowly in periods of no violations. We apply the proposed strategy to Standard & Poor's 500 Index and show there can be substantial savings in daily capital charges, while restricting the number of violations to within the Basel II penalty limits. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Natural variation at Strubbelig Receptor Kinase 3 drives immune-triggered incompatibilities between Arabidopsis thaliana accessions

Accumulation of genetic incompatibilities within species can lead to reproductive isolation and, potentially, speciation. In this study, we show that allelic variation at SRF3 (Strubbelig Receptor Family 3), encoding a receptor-like kinase, conditions the occurrence of incompatibility between Arabidopsis thaliana accessions. The geographical distribution of SRF3 alleles reveals that allelic forms causing epistatic incompatibility with a Landsberg erecta allele at the RPP1 resistance locus are present in A. thaliana accessions in central Asia. Incompatible SRF3 alleles condition for an enhanced early immune response to pathogens as compared to the resistance-dampening effect of compatible SRF3 forms in isogenic backgrounds. Variation in disease susceptibility suggests a basis for the molecular patterns of a recent selective sweep detected at the SRF3 locus in central Asian populations.     

Common variants at TRAF3IP2 are associated with susceptibility to psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an inflammatory joint disease that is distinct from other chronic arthritides and which is frequently accompanied by psoriasis vulgaris (PsV) and seronegativity for rheumatoid factor. We conducted a genome-wide association study in 609 German individuals with PsA (cases) and 990 controls with replication in 6 European cohorts including a total of 5,488 individuals. We replicated PsA associations at HLA-C and IL12B and identified a new association at TRAF3IP2 (rs13190932, P = 8.56 × 10?1?). TRAF3IP2 was also associated with PsV in a German cohort including 2,040 individuals (rs13190932, P = 1.95 × 10?3). Sequencing of the exons of TRAF3IP2 identified a coding variant (p.Asp10Asn, rs33980500) as the most significantly associated SNP (P = 1.13 × 10?2?, odds ratio = 1.95). Functional assays showed reduced binding of this TRAF3IP2 variant to TRAF6, suggesting altered modulation of immunoregulatory signals through altered TRAF interactions as a new and shared pathway for PsA and PsV.