Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

物理化学实验多媒体课件的设计与应用

论述了物理化学实验课件经过多年的制作实践是如何从内容到方法逐步完善的设计理念 .使完成的物理化学实验课件在教学中得到广泛的应用 ,并收到传统教学所不能获得的教学效果 ,同时也得到了学生和专家以及同行的肯定 .     

DETERMINATION OF KRAFT LIGNIN CONCENTRATIONS BY FTIR

A fast and accurate method based on FTIR is developed for determining the lignin content and its characteristic bands in alkali solutions. The work consisted of two main parts: 1) establishing a predictive model and 2) determination of the accuracy of the model. The model was derived by applying the partial least squares algorithm for multivariate analyses to a set of spectrum data obtained from selected IR absorption regions in the range of 1600 - 900 cm-1. The model was tested with spent liquors obtained from commercial pulp mills.The accuracy of the predictive model is extremely high suitable for commercial applications,particularly for monitoring the dynamic response of modern kraft pulping processes.     

浅谈新型墙体材料——煤矸石空心砖

煤矸石空心砖是一种新型环保墙体材料，符合国家及山西省出台的限制生产和使用实心黏土砖，鼓励发展新型建筑材料的政策。利用煤矸石制造的空心砖可以作为保温材料，既可节约建筑能耗，又可节约土地资源，减少环境污染。煤矸石空心砖同黏土实心砖相比，具有高强、轻质、隔音、隔热、保温、防震等优点，市场前景良好。     

Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

热连轧精轧机组温度模型的改进

从实际生产数据入手,研究了温度模型设定精度的现状及设定精度与各影响因素之间的关系,同时还消化了原来的温度模型程序并将其移植到微机上.经大量的离线统计回归分析,提出了一个行之有效的温度模型改进方案.该改进方案的思路同样适合其他热轧生产线.     

Timed bromocriptine administration reduces body fat stores in obese subjects and hyperglycemia in type II diabetics.

Obese postmenopausal female volunteers were given timed daily oral dosages of bromocriptine, and tested for reduction of body fat stores. This dopamine agonist has been shown to reset circadian rhythms that are altered in obese animals and to reduce body fat levels in several animal models. The participants were instructed not to alter their existing exercise and eating behavior during treatment. Skinfold measurements were taken on 33 subjects as indices of body fat. The measurements (e.g., suprailiac) were reduced after six weeks by about 25%, which represents a reduction of 11.7% of the total body fat. These dramatic decreases in body fat, which are equivalent to that produced by severe caloric restriction, were accompanied by more modest reductions of body weight (2.5%), indicating a possible conservation of protein that is usually lost as a consequence of such caloric restriction. The effects of bromocriptine treatment on body fat and hyperglycemia were also examined in non-insulin dependent diabetics being treated with oral hypoglycemics (7 subjects) or insulin (7 subjects). Total body fat was reduced by 10.7% and 5.1% in diabetics on oral hypoglycemics and insulin, respectively, without any significant reductions in body weight. Hyperglycemia was reduced in most of the 15 diabetic subjects treated leading to euglycemia and even cessation of hypoglycemic drugs in 3 of the 7 subjects during 4-8 weeks of bromocriptine treatment. These findings support the hypothesis that obesity and type II diabetes may be treated effectively with bromocriptine when administered at the proper times and dosages.     

Preferential excretion of glycated albumin in C57BL-Ks-J mice: effects of diabetes.

Urinary excretion of glycated albumin was quantitated in genetically hyperglycemic mice (C57BL-Ks-J, db/db mice), a model for non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, and compared with their non-diabetic littermates. The data indicated a preferential excretion of glycated albumin in non-diabetic mice. This phenomenon of 'editing' of glycated albumin is decreased significantly in diabetic mice. Quantitative measurements of overall excretion of glycated albumin suggested that the loss of editing in diabetic mice is due to the dilution of glycated albumin by the unmodified albumin which is excreted in large amounts in diabetic mice. Therefore, the loss of editing observed in this model resembled the one we characterized in insulin-dependent diabetic humans and a streptozotocin-diabetic rat model.     

Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.