Subset threshold autoregression

We develop in this paper an efficient way to select the best subset threshold autoregressive model. The proposed method uses a stochastic search idea. Differing from most conventional approaches, our method does not require us to fix the delay or the threshold parameters in advance. By adopting the Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we can identify the best subset model from a very large of number of possible models, and at the same time estimate the unknown parameters. A simulation experiment shows that the method is very effective. In its application to the US unemployment rate, the stochastic search method successfully selects lag one as the time delay and five best models from more than 4000 choices. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Huntington's disease candidate region exhibits many different haplotypes.

Analysis of 78 Huntington's disease (HD) chromosomes with multi-allele markers revealed 26 different haplotypes, suggesting a variety of independent HD mutations. The most frequent haplotype, accounting for about one third of disease chromosomes, suggests that the disease gene is between D4S182 and D4S180. However, the paucity of an expected class of chromosomes that can be related to this major haplotype by assuming single crossovers may reflect the operation of other mechanisms in creating haplotype diversity. Some of these mechanisms sustain alternative scenarios that do not require a multiple mutational origin for HD and/or its positioning between D4S182 and D4S180.     

Truth and openness: an epistemology for interpretive systemology

Both an ontoepistemology for reductionist modern science (counter-ontoepistemology) and an ontology for interpretive Systemology have been outlined in the two preceding papers in this special issue ofSystems Practice. In the present article, the notion of “truth” is interpreted in terms of both the ontoepistemology of “reductionism” and the ontology of interpretive systemology. Both interpretations are discussed. Such a discussion represents the objective of this paper, that is, to outline the epistemological “face” of the ontoepistemology of interpretive systemology. In order to design that “epistemological face,” the relation between ontology and epistemology must be clarified. Such a relation is seen from the standpoint already provided by the ontology. After the discussion on the notion of truth, the general shape of a systemic-interpretive inquiring process is outlined.     

Preliminary data on the chromosome cycle ofLycœides idas L.

Riassunto Nella specieLycides idas L. si osservano variazioni numeriche dei cromosomi anche nelle spermatogonie di uno stesso individuo. Questo fatto è posto in relazione con la presenza nelle femmine dei caratteri secondari dei due sessi, come risultato dell'unione tra gameti con assetti sbilanciati.