Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

Nonlinear response of biophoton emission to external perturbations.

By considering an exciplex system consisting of collective molecules in interaction with both the 'pumping' fields and the biophoton fields, the two-level exciplex model and the three-level exciplex model are presented. They are useful for the investigation of the quasi-stationary behaviour of biophoton emission, and biophoton emission as a dynamic process in the presence of external perturbations. Our theoretical results predict a series of nonlinear effects, such as chaos, fractal behaviour, and non-equilibrium phase transition. These effects characterize the coherence nature of living systems. In our approaches, there are two important quantities f and x, which can be used to mark the working points of the two-level and three-level exciplex systems. All the influences of external perturbations on the exciplex systems, e.g. change of temperature, the addition of agents, exposure to light, etc., can be interpreted as shifts of the working points of the systems, leading to a diversity of nonlinear response of biophoton emission. In addition, the agreements of the theoretical results and the corresponding experimental observations on biophoton emission from biological systems in the presence of external perturbations are demonstrated.     

Goniothalamicin and annonacin: Bioactive acetogenins fromGoniothalamus giganteus (Annonaceae)

Summary Using brine shrimp lethality for activity-directed fractionation, goniothalamicin (I), a new tetrahydroxy-mono-tetrahydrofuran fatty acid -lactone (acetogenin), has been isolated from ethanolic extracts of the stem bark ofGoniothalamus giganteus Hook. f., Thomas (Annonaceae). This novel compound was found to be cytotoxic and insecticidal and inhibited the formation of crown gall tumors on potato discs. Annonacin (II), the only other reported mono-tetrahydrofuran acetogenin, was also isolated; the previously reported 9ASK (astrocytoma reversal) activity ofII was confirmed, andII is now also found to be weakly active against 3PS murine leukemia.     

Gigantecin: A novel antimitotic and cytotoxic acetogenin,with nonadjacent tetrahydrofuran rings,fromGoniothalamus giganteus (Annonaceae)

Summary Gigantecin (I), a novel tetrahydroxy-di-tetrahydrofuran fatty acid -lactone (acetogenin), was isolated from an ethanolic extract of the stem bark ofGoniothalamus giganteus Hook. f., Thomas (Annonaceae), by means of activity-directed fractionation (brine shrimp lethality test). This new compound is extremely cytotoxic to human tumor cells, inhibits crown gall tumors on potato discs, and is active in an assay designed to detect antimitotic agents (9 ASK).     

Examination of naturally occurring polyacetylenes and α-terthienyl for their ability to induce cytogenetic damage

Summary -Terthienyl and 5 polyacetylenes were examined for chromosome damaging activity using Syrian hamster cells. None of these naturally occurring compounds induced sister chromatid exchanges and neither -terthienyl nor phenylheptatriyne induced chromosome aberrations.The authors wish to thank the National Science and Engineering Research Council for financial support of this research.     

Forecasting in the presence of level shifts

This article addresses the problem of forecasting time series that are subject to level shifts. Processes with level shifts possess a nonlinear dependence structure. Using the stochastic permanent breaks (STOPBREAK) model, I model this nonlinearity in a direct and flexible way that avoids imposing a discrete regime structure. I apply this model to the rate of price inflation in the United States, which I show is subject to level shifts. These shifts significantly affect the accuracy of out‐of‐sample forecasts, causing models that assume covariance stationarity to be substantially biased. Models that do not assume covariance stationarity, such as the random walk, are unbiased but lack precision in periods without shifts. I show that the STOPBREAK model outperforms several alternative models in an out‐of‐sample inflation forecasting experiment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

单片机多机通信中中间通信机的设计

介绍了单片机树型网络多机通信系统的结构及一种用两片单片机AT89C52的双CPU电路方案实现树型网络多机通信中中间通信机的新方法．     

露天矿山高陡岩石边坡失稳的三维离散元分析

通过对大冶露天矿边坡失稳的三维离散元分析，讨论了边坡失稳原因，不仅为滑坡防治提供了参考依据，对高陡岩岩边坡失稳机制的认识也提供了参考。