On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

Are you growing systems thinking managers? Use a systems model to teach and practice organizational analysis and planning,management policy,and organizational development

This paper discusses the use of the Kast and Rosenzweig systems and contingency model for teaching and practice in organizational analysis and planning, management policy, and organizational development. The need for an organizational model for graduate students and field-based managers and executives is identified. The model is presented beginning with the Kast and Rosenzweig work, with integration of research by Daft, Schein, Trist, Deal and Kennedy, Ackoff, Delbecq, and Mintzberg. The teaching and practice uses of the model in four areas are presented, including organizational analysis and planning, management policy making, and organizational development. In each area case examples of the use of the model in teaching and practice are presented. Needs for future research and implications for the use of the model are discussed.     

The crystal-like anatomical uniformity of the striate cortex

The visual field is topographically mapped onto the primary visual cortex (V1), forming a retinotopic map which is far more detailed for the foveal regions than for the periphery. We found that receptive field (RF) size in monkey V1 increases with eccentricity, and that a 1—2 m² V1 region contains roughly a complete set of machinery necessary to analyze a visual-field area whose size is about that of the RFs of the cells. This allows V1 to be anatomically uniform, and is in sharp contrast with the retina.     

生物序列分析

这次演讲将回顾近 1 0多年来应用某些随机模型于生物序列分析的研究工作 .这些模型本身有很长的历史 ,可追溯到 3 0多年以前 ,尽管从那时起 ,这些模型已经产生了很多新的变种 .在生物序列分析中模型的作用是归总那些涉及到在生物信息学中已知的模体 (motif)或域 (domain)的信息 ,并且提供一种工具在另一序列片段中寻找模体或域的实例 (instance) .我们将逐步介绍模体模型 ,从非常简单的 ,非随机情况开始 ,进而是更复杂的情况 ,直至近来的关于模体的剖面隐马氏模型 .第二个例子是来自利用一个或两个物种的序列数据进行基因发现 ,其中广义隐马氏模型或广义成对 (pair)隐马氏模型已被证实非常有效     

Chromosomal effects of adeno-associated virus vector integration.

Adeno-associated virus (AAV) vectors are currently being used in several clinical gene-therapy trials (see the NIH OBA Human Gene Transfer Clinical Trials Database); however, little is known about the chromosomal effects of vector integration. Here we report that integrated vector proviruses are associated with chromosomal deletions and other rearrangements and are frequently located on chromosome 19 (although not at the wildtype AAV integration site).     

Energetic landscape of alpha-lytic protease optimizes longevity through kinetic stability.

During the evolution of proteins the pressure to optimize biological activity is moderated by a need for efficient folding. For most proteins, this is accomplished through spontaneous folding to a thermodynamically stable and active native state. However, in the extracellular bacterial alpha-lytic protease (alphaLP) these two processes have become decoupled. The native state of alphaLP is thermodynamically unstable, and when denatured, requires millennia (t1/2 approximately 1,800 years) to refold. Folding is made possible by an attached folding catalyst, the pro-region, which is degraded on completion of folding, leaving alphaLP trapped in its native state by a large kinetic unfolding barrier (t1/2 approximately 1.2 years). alphaLP faces two very different folding landscapes: one in the presence of the pro-region controlling folding, and one in its absence restricting unfolding. Here we demonstrate that this separation of folding and unfolding pathways has removed constraints placed on the folding of thermodynamically stable proteins, and allowed the evolution of a native state having markedly reduced dynamic fluctuations. This, in turn, has led to a significant extension of the functional lifetime of alphaLP by the optimal suppression of proteolytic sensitivity.     

Indoxyl derivatives of drug metabolites

Summary Indoxyl derivatives were detected as minor products among the urinary metabolites of two trial drugs, a benzodiazepine (GP 55 129) and a benzophenone (CGP 11 952). Their structures were elucidated by NMR and mass spectroscopy. Presumably, metabolites containing potential aldehyde functions react spontaneously with endogenous indoxyl. Such derivatives have not hitherto been encountered in drug metabolism.     

地下感应式通信理论的研究

本文研究了地下矿井内,电波沿巷道内线缆传播的可行性及单线波模的传播与衰减规律,研究巷道内电小天线与线缆之间的耦合情况,从而为实际工作提供理论依据。     

Catecholamine metabolism in the vas deferens and the adrenal gland with special reference to the central catecholamine-depleted state

Experiments were carried out to elucidate the role of central catecholamines in regulating catecholamine metabolism in the vas deferens and adrenal gland of the rat. Rats were injected intracerebroventricularly (i.c.v.) with either vehicle or 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA). Groups of animals pretreated with vehicle or 6-OHDA (i.c.v.) were injected intraperitoneally (i.p.) with alpha-methyl-para-tyrosine (AMT), a tyrosine hydroxylase inhibitor. Catecholamine turnover rates were estimated by determining norepinephrine or epinephrine content after administrating AMT.Central norepinephrine and dopamine contents decreased significantly (p<0.05) after treatment with 6-OHDA and AMT. The norepinephrine content of the vas deferens of rats pretreated with 6-OHDA was markedly reduced (p<0.001) after administration of AMT, whereas that of the vehicle-treated rats remained unchanged. Administration of 6-OHDA had no effect on the norepinephrine or epinephrine content of the adrenal gland.The present results indicate that central monoaminergic neurons have an inhibitory effect on the adrenergic neurons of the vas deferens. In contrast, this inhibitory regulation does not appear to be exerted on the adrenal glands.     

氧化物半导瓷中晶界势垒的起源

提出了一个关于氧化物半导瓷晶界势垒起源的新观点，认为晶界势垒起源于烧结过程中外界氧在晶界中的扩散，与材料的结构、化学缺陷、掺杂、外界气氛、烧结工艺、组成状态等有密切关系，并用此理论解释了许多实验现象。