Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于神经网络的企业信用等级评估

企业信用等级评估是金融领域重要的问题，论文采用人工神经网络模型研究企业信用等级的评估问题，按照企业样本在信用等级的分布状况来抽样，然后，根据企业样本性质的不同，将其分为制造业和非制造业两大类，利用偏相关分析方法建立了企业信用评级的指标体系，此外，还介绍了几种企业信用评级常用的评估模型，并将神经网络评估模型的性能和其他的信用评估模型作了比较，实验结果表明神经网络模型具有更好的预测准确性。     

管理系统的最经济控制问题

依据最经济控制问题的概念及其对无确定性数学模型系统分析存在的局限性，对现代管理系统最经济控制问题，提出了在满足系统基本要求前提下。实现控制功能及品质与控制成本比最佳或最划算的模型定义，并对管理系统的可靠性、ABC管理法、WSR方法论等方面的可靠性成本、运行成本和最佳收益等最经济控制问题进行了研究．     

Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

Effect of volatile anesthetics on the circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin

The characteristic circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin undergoes a remarkable sign inversion on addition of halothane, chloroform and other volatile anesthetics. This sign inversion, which is completely reversed by removal of the anesthetic, reflects a pronounced conformational change of the bound ligand; probably a complete inversion of chirality. The observation suggests that association of volatile anesthetics with proteins can markedly alter the internal topography of receptor sites and potentially influence the stereoselectivity of ligand binding.     

负反馈电桥在电阻传感器线性化中的应用

本文介绍利用信号流图及梅森公式分析设计负反馈电桥电路,以及在电阻传感器测量线性化中的应用。     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

磁光光盘动态性能的研究

该文报道了所研制的具有AIN/TbFeCo/AIN/AI四层结构磁光光盘的动态性能测试结果.当记录信息位尺寸为1μm时,信息读出载噪比大于45dB,载噪比随盘片径向位置而异.文中根据测试结果,讨论了影响载噪比的诸因素.