排序方式: 共有42条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
21.
In this paper we suggest a framework to assess the degree of reliability of provisional estimates as forecasts of final data, and we re‐examine the question of the most appropriate way in which available data should be used for ex ante forecasting in the presence of a data‐revision process. Various desirable properties for provisional data are suggested, as well as procedures for testing them, taking into account the possible non‐stationarity of economic variables. For illustration, the methodology is applied to assess the quality of the US M1 data production process and to derive a conditional model whose performance in forecasting is then tested against other alternatives based on simple transformations of provisional data or of past final data. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
22.
Origin of the dielectric dead layer in nanoscale capacitors 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Capacitors are a mainstay of electronic integrated circuits and devices, where they perform essential functions such as storing electrical charge, and blocking direct current while allowing alternating currents to propagate. Because they are often the largest components in circuits, extensive efforts are directed at reducing their size through the use of high-permittivity insulators such as perovskite-structure SrTiO3 (refs 1, 2), which should provide more capacitance per unit area of device. Unfortunately, most experiments on thin-film SrTiO3 capacitors have yielded capacitance values that are orders of magnitude smaller than expected. The microscopic origin of this reduced capacitance, which is often discussed in terms of a low-permittivity interfacial 'dead layer', is not well understood. Whether such a dead layer exists at all, and if so, whether it is an intrinsic property of an ideal metal-insulator interface or a result of processing issues such as defects and strains, are controversial questions. Here we present fully ab initio calculations of the dielectric properties of realistic SrRuO3/SrTiO3/SrRuO3 nanocapacitors, and show that the observed dramatic capacitance reduction is indeed an intrinsic effect. We demonstrate the existence of a dielectric dead layer by calculating the dielectric profile across the interface and analyse its origin by extracting the ionic and electronic contributions to the electrostatic screening. We establish a correspondence between the dead layer and the hardening of the collective SrTiO3 zone-centre polar modes, and determine the influence of the electrode by repeating our calculations for Pt/SrTiO3/Pt capacitors. Our results provide practical guidelines for minimizing the deleterious effects of the dielectric dead layer in nanoscale devices. 相似文献
23.
Aftershocks driven by a high-pressure CO2 source at depth 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
In northern Italy in 1997, two earthquakes of magnitudes 5.7 and 6 (separated by nine hours) marked the beginning of a sequence that lasted more than 30 days, with thousands of aftershocks including four additional events with magnitudes between 5 and 6. This normal-faulting sequence is not well explained with models of elastic stress transfer, particularly the persistence of hanging-wall seismicity that included two events with magnitudes greater than 5. Here we show that this sequence may have been driven by a fluid pressure pulse generated from the coseismic release of a known deep source of trapped high-pressure carbon dioxide (CO2). We find a strong correlation between the high-pressure front and the aftershock hypocentres over a two-week period, using precise hypocentre locations and a simple model of nonlinear diffusion. The triggering amplitude (10-20 MPa) of the pressure pulse overwhelms the typical (0.1-0.2 MPa) range from stress changes in the usual stress triggering models. We propose that aftershocks of large earthquakes in such geologic environments may be driven by the coseismic release of trapped, high-pressure fluids propagating through damaged zones created by the mainshock. This may provide a link between earthquakes, aftershocks, crust/mantle degassing and earthquake-triggered large-scale fluid flow. 相似文献
24.
Takeda Y Costa S Delamarre E Roncal C Leite de Oliveira R Squadrito ML Finisguerra V Deschoemaeker S Bruyère F Wenes M Hamm A Serneels J Magat J Bhattacharyya T Anisimov A Jordan BF Alitalo K Maxwell P Gallez B Zhuang ZW Saito Y Simons M De Palma M Mazzone M 《Nature》2011,479(7371):122-126
PHD2 serves as an oxygen sensor that rescues blood supply by regulating vessel formation and shape in case of oxygen shortage. However, it is unknown whether PHD2 can influence arteriogenesis. Here we studied the role of PHD2 in collateral artery growth by using hindlimb ischaemia as a model, a process that compensates for the lack of blood flow in case of major arterial occlusion. We show that Phd2 (also known as Egln1) haplodeficient (Phd2(+/-)) mice displayed preformed collateral arteries that preserved limb perfusion and prevented tissue necrosis in ischaemia. Improved arteriogenesis in Phd2(+/-) mice was due to an expansion of tissue-resident, M2-like macrophages and their increased release of arteriogenic factors, leading to enhanced smooth muscle cell (SMC) recruitment and growth. Both chronic and acute deletion of one Phd2 allele in macrophages was sufficient to skew their polarization towards a pro-arteriogenic phenotype. Mechanistically, collateral vessel preconditioning relied on the activation of canonical NF-κB pathway in Phd2(+/-) macrophages. These results unravel how PHD2 regulates arteriogenesis and artery homeostasis by controlling a specific differentiation state in macrophages and suggest new treatment options for ischaemic disorders. 相似文献
25.
Massimiliano Badino 《Foundations of Science》2006,11(4):323-347
The foundation of statistical mechanics and the explanation of the success of its methods rest on the fact that the theoretical values of physical quantities (phase averages) may be compared with the results of experimental measurements (infinite time averages). In the 1930s, this problem, called the ergodic problem, was dealt with by ergodic theory that tried to resolve the problem by making reference above all to considerations of a dynamic nature. In the present paper, this solution will be analyzed first, highlighting the fact that its very general nature does not duly consider the specificities of the systems of statistical mechanics. Second, Khinchin’s approach will be presented, that starting with more specific assumptions about the nature of systems, achieves an asymptotic version of the result obtained with ergodic theory. Third, the statistical meaning of Khinchin’s approach will be analyzed and a comparison between this and the point of view of ergodic theory is proposed. It will be demonstrated that the difference consists principally of two different perspectives on the ergodic problem: that of ergodic theory puts the state of equilibrium at the center, while Khinchin’s attempts to generalize the result to non-equilibrium states. 相似文献
26.
Michael J. Artis Anindya Banerjee Massimiliano Marcellino 《Journal of forecasting》2005,24(4):279-298
Data are now readily available for a very large number of macroeconomic variables that are potentially useful when forecasting. We argue that recent developments in the theory of dynamic factor models enable such large data sets to be summarized by relatively few estimated factors, which can then be used to improve forecast accuracy. In this paper we construct a large macroeconomic data set for the UK, with about 80 variables, model it using a dynamic factor model, and compare the resulting forecasts with those from a set of standard time‐series models. We find that just six factors are sufficient to explain 50% of the variability of all the variables in the data set. These factors, which can be shown to be related to key variables in the economy, and their use leads to considerable improvements upon standard time‐series benchmarks in terms of forecasting performance. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
27.
In this paper we examine how BVARs can be used for forecasting cointegrated variables. We propose an approach based on a Bayesian ECM model in which, contrary to the previous literature, the factor loadings are given informative priors. This procedure, applied to Italian macroeconomic series, produces more satisfactory forecasts than different prior specifications or parameterizations. Providing an informative prior on the factor loadings is a crucial point: a flat prior on the ECM terms combined with an informative prior on the lagged endogenous variables coefficients gives too much importance to the long‐run properties with respect to the short‐run dynamics. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
28.
The hedging of weather risks has become extremely relevant in recent years, promoting the diffusion of weather‐derivative contracts. The pricing of such contracts requires the development of appropriate models for the prediction of the underlying weather variables. Within this framework, a commonly used specification is the ARFIMA‐GARCH. We provide a generalization of such a model, introducing time‐varying memory coefficients. Our model satisfies the empirical evidence of the changing memory level observed in average temperature series, and provides useful improvements in the forecasting, simulation, and pricing issues related to weather derivatives. We present an application related to the forecast and simulation of a temperature index density, which is then used for the pricing of weather options. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
29.
Massimiliano G. Bianchi Donatella Bardelli Martina Chiu Ovidio Bussolati 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》2014,71(11):2001-2015
Excitatory amino acid transporters (EAATs) are high-affinity Na+-dependent carriers of major importance in maintaining glutamate homeostasis in the central nervous system. EAAT3, the human counterpart of the rodent excitatory amino acid carrier 1 (EAAC1), is encoded by the SLC1A1 gene. EAAT3/EAAC1 is ubiquitously expressed in the brain, mostly in neurons but also in other cell types, such as oligodendrocyte precursors. While most of the glutamate released in the synapses is taken up by the “glial-type” EAATs, EAAT2 (GLT-1 in rodents) and EAAT1 (GLAST), the functional role of EAAT3/EAAC1 is related to the subtle regulation of glutamatergic transmission. Moreover, because it can also transport cysteine, EAAT3/EAAC1 is believed to be important for the synthesis of intracellular glutathione and subsequent protection from oxidative stress. In contrast to other EAATs, EAAT3/EAAC1 is mostly intracellular, and several mechanisms have been described for the rapid regulation of the membrane trafficking of the transporter. Moreover, the carrier interacts with several proteins, and this interaction modulates transport activity. Much less is known about the slow regulatory mechanisms acting on the expression of the transporter, although several recent reports have identified changes in EAAT3/EAAC1 protein level and activity related to modulation of its expression at the gene level. Moreover, EAAT3/EAAC1 expression is altered in pathological conditions, such as hypoxia/ischemia, multiple sclerosis, schizophrenia, and epilepsy. This review summarizes these results and provides an overall picture of changes in EAAT3/EAAC1 expression in health and disease. 相似文献
30.