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61.
We first present scenario analysis as a qualitative forecasting technique useful for strategic planning. Then we develop an overview of the two classes of methods for scenario analysis described in the literature. Based on both classes, a new method is developed which especially fits the needs of strategic planning. The method can be divided into three stages: 1. Determination of compatible scenarios, 2. Determination of scenario probabilities, and 3. Determination of main scenarios. An example is given to illustrate the method. 相似文献
62.
A H Martin 《Experientia》1968,24(5):476-477
63.
Although molecular data have revealed the vast scope of microbial diversity, two fundamental questions remain unanswered even for well-defined natural microbial communities: how many bacterial types co-exist, and are such types naturally organized into phylogenetically discrete units of potential ecological significance? It has been argued that without such information, the environmental function, population biology and biogeography of microorganisms cannot be rigorously explored. Here we address these questions by comprehensive sampling of two large 16S ribosomal RNA clone libraries from a coastal bacterioplankton community. We show that compensation for artefacts generated by common library construction techniques reveals fine-scale patterns of community composition. At least 516 ribotypes (unique rRNA sequences) were detected in the sample and, by statistical extrapolation, at least 1,633 co-existing ribotypes in the sampled population. More than 50% of the ribotypes fall into discrete clusters containing less than 1% sequence divergence. This pattern cannot be accounted for by interoperon variation, indicating a large predominance of closely related taxa in this community. We propose that such microdiverse clusters arise by selective sweeps and persist because competitive mechanisms are too weak to purge diversity from within them. 相似文献
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Seymour B O'Doherty JP Dayan P Koltzenburg M Jones AK Dolan RJ Friston KJ Frackowiak RS 《Nature》2004,429(6992):664-667
The ability to use environmental stimuli to predict impending harm is critical for survival. Such predictions should be available as early as they are reliable. In pavlovian conditioning, chains of successively earlier predictors are studied in terms of higher-order relationships, and have inspired computational theories such as temporal difference learning. However, there is at present no adequate neurobiological account of how this learning occurs. Here, in a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study of higher-order aversive conditioning, we describe a key computational strategy that humans use to learn predictions about pain. We show that neural activity in the ventral striatum and the anterior insula displays a marked correspondence to the signals for sequential learning predicted by temporal difference models. This result reveals a flexible aversive learning process ideally suited to the changing and uncertain nature of real-world environments. Taken with existing data on reward learning, our results suggest a critical role for the ventral striatum in integrating complex appetitive and aversive predictions to coordinate behaviour. 相似文献
67.
To explain the evolution of cooperation by natural selection has been a major goal of biologists since Darwin. Cooperators help others at a cost to themselves, while defectors receive the benefits of altruism without providing any help in return. The standard game dynamical formulation is the 'Prisoner's Dilemma', in which two players have a choice between cooperation and defection. In the repeated game, cooperators using direct reciprocity cannot be exploited by defectors, but it is unclear how such cooperators can arise in the first place. In general, defectors are stable against invasion by cooperators. This understanding is based on traditional concepts of evolutionary stability and dynamics in infinite populations. Here we study evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations. We show that a single cooperator using a strategy like 'tit-for-tat' can invade a population of defectors with a probability that corresponds to a net selective advantage. We specify the conditions required for natural selection to favour the emergence of cooperation and define evolutionary stability in finite populations. 相似文献
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Iron corrosion by novel anaerobic microorganisms 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Corrosion of iron presents a serious economic problem. Whereas aerobic corrosion is a chemical process, anaerobic corrosion is frequently linked to the activity of sulphate-reducing bacteria (SRB). SRB are supposed to act upon iron primarily by produced hydrogen sulphide as a corrosive agent and by consumption of 'cathodic hydrogen' formed on iron in contact with water. Among SRB, Desulfovibrio species--with their capacity to consume hydrogen effectively--are conventionally regarded as the main culprits of anaerobic corrosion; however, the underlying mechanisms are complex and insufficiently understood. Here we describe novel marine, corrosive types of SRB obtained via an isolation approach with metallic iron as the only electron donor. In particular, a Desulfobacterium-like isolate reduced sulphate with metallic iron much faster than conventional hydrogen-scavenging Desulfovibrio species, suggesting that the novel surface-attached cell type obtained electrons from metallic iron in a more direct manner than via free hydrogen. Similarly, a newly isolated Methanobacterium-like archaeon produced methane with iron faster than do known hydrogen-using methanogens, again suggesting a more direct access to electrons from iron than via hydrogen consumption. 相似文献