Local to unity,long‐horizon forecasting thresholds for model selection in the AR(1)

This article introduces a novel framework for analysing long‐horizon forecasting of the near non‐stationary AR(1) model. Using the local to unity specification of the autoregressive parameter, I derive the asymptotic distributions of long‐horizon forecast errors both for the unrestricted AR(1), estimated using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and for the random walk (RW). I then identify functions, relating local to unity ‘drift’ to forecast horizon, such that OLS and RW forecasts share the same expected square error. OLS forecasts are preferred on one side of these ‘forecasting thresholds’, while RW forecasts are preferred on the other. In addition to explaining the relative performance of forecasts from these two models, these thresholds prove useful in developing model selection criteria that help a forecaster reduce error. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The green June beetle (Cotinis nitida) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae): local variation in the beetle’s major avian predators and in the competition for mates

The green June beetle (Cotinis nitida) was observed in northern Virginia for a second and third flight season. The study yielded some results that were consistent with earlier findings, namely that mate-locating beetles were vulnerable to attack by avian predators and matings occurred primarily early in the flight season. Novel findings included the following: (1) blue jays (Cyanocitta cristata) were the major predators, not common grackles (Quiscalus quiscala), (2) some jays appeared to selectively prey on female beetles, (3) competition for mates among male beetles could be so intense that some males attempted to copulate with already mated (unreceptive) females, and (4) the sex ratio of the beetle population feeding on wild blackberries remained near equality late in the flight season despite the fact that the sex ratio of the population of beetles at the emergence site became highly female-biased over time.     

Swimming and bipedal bottom-running in the pig-nosed turtle Carettochelys insculpta Ramsay, 1886

The pig-nosed freshwater turtle Carettochelys insculpta Ramsay, 1886 has paddle-shaped foreflippers that resemble those of sea turtles. These turtles exhibit a wide range of swimming capabilities. As well as swimming by the action of synchronized foreflippers alone, they sometimes used alternate hindlimb action at the same time. They could swim by ipsilaterally synchronized action of all four limbs, or by hindlimb action alone (combined with stabilizer/lift function of the foreflippers). The turtles also showed flexibility in bottom-walking. Besides the ipsilaterally synchronized quadrupedal action characteristic of other freshwater turtles, they exhibited a bipedal walking mechanism never previously described. Propelled by alternate action of the hindlimbs, the animals held the head and plastron above the substratum, with the large foreflippers acting to provide anterior lift and stability against roll and yaw. Because both hindlimbs were sometimes off the substratum simultaneously during bipedal locomotion, their duty factors were < 0.5, implying a bipedal run.