Modelling and Trading the English and German Stock Markets with Novelty Optimization Techniques

The motivation for this paper was the introduction of novel short‐term models to trade the FTSE 100 and DAX 30 exchange‐traded funds (ETF) indices. There are major contributions in this paper which include the introduction of an input selection criterion when utilizing an expansive universe of inputs, a hybrid combination of partial swarm optimizer (PSO) with radial basis function (RBF) neural networks, the application of a PSO algorithm to a traditional autoregressive moving model (ARMA), the application of a PSO algorithm to a higher‐order neural network and, finally, the introduction of a multi‐objective algorithm to optimize statistical and trading performance when trading an index. All the machine learning‐based methodologies and the conventional models are adapted and optimized to model the index. A PSO algorithm is used to optimize the weights in a traditional RBF neural network, in a higher‐order neural network (HONN) and the AR and MA terms of an ARMA model. In terms of checking the statistical and empirical accuracy of the novel models, we benchmark them with a traditional HONN, with an ARMA, with a moving average convergence/divergence model (MACD) and with a naïve strategy. More specifically, the trading and statistical performance of all models is investigated in a forecast simulation of the FTSE 100 and DAX 30 ETF time series over the period January 2004 to December 2015 using the last 3 years for out‐of‐sample testing. Finally, the empirical and statistical results indicate that the PSO‐RBF model outperforms all other examined models in terms of trading accuracy and profitability, even with mixed inputs and with only autoregressive inputs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Broad phylogenomic sampling improves resolution of the animal tree of life

Long-held ideas regarding the evolutionary relationships among animals have recently been upended by sometimes controversial hypotheses based largely on insights from molecular data. These new hypotheses include a clade of moulting animals (Ecdysozoa) and the close relationship of the lophophorates to molluscs and annelids (Lophotrochozoa). Many relationships remain disputed, including those that are required to polarize key features of character evolution, and support for deep nodes is often low. Phylogenomic approaches, which use data from many genes, have shown promise for resolving deep animal relationships, but are hindered by a lack of data from many important groups. Here we report a total of 39.9 Mb of expressed sequence tags from 29 animals belonging to 21 phyla, including 11 phyla previously lacking genomic or expressed-sequence-tag data. Analysed in combination with existing sequences, our data reinforce several previously identified clades that split deeply in the animal tree (including Protostomia, Ecdysozoa and Lophotrochozoa), unambiguously resolve multiple long-standing issues for which there was strong conflicting support in earlier studies with less data (such as velvet worms rather than tardigrades as the sister group of arthropods), and provide molecular support for the monophyly of molluscs, a group long recognized by morphologists. In addition, we find strong support for several new hypotheses. These include a clade that unites annelids (including sipunculans and echiurans) with nemerteans, phoronids and brachiopods, molluscs as sister to that assemblage, and the placement of ctenophores as the earliest diverging extant multicellular animals. A single origin of spiral cleavage (with subsequent losses) is inferred from well-supported nodes. Many relationships between a stable subset of taxa find strong support, and a diminishing number of lineages remain recalcitrant to placement on the tree.     

Mutation of Vps54 causes motor neuron disease and defective spermiogenesis in the wobbler mouse

Vacuolar-vesicular protein sorting (Vps) factors are involved in vesicular trafficking in eukaryotic cells. We identified the missense mutation L967Q in Vps54 in the wobbler mouse, an animal model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and also characterized a lethal allele, Vps54(beta-geo). Motoneuron survival and spermiogenesis are severely compromised in the wobbler mouse, indicating that Vps54 has an essential role in these processes.     

Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation

Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period. Projections with climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate-ecosystem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations, a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass, owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord, and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.     

The mass of the missing baryons in the X-ray forest of the warm-hot intergalactic medium

Recent cosmological measurements indicate that baryons comprise about four per cent of the total mass-energy density of the Universe, which is in accord with the predictions arising from studies of the production of the lightest elements. It is also in agreement with the actual number of baryons detected at early times (redshifts z > 2). Close to our own epoch (z < 2), however, the number of baryons detected add up to just over half (approximately 55 per cent) of the number seen at z > 2 (refs 6-11), meaning that about approximately 45 per cent are 'missing'. Here we report a determination of the mass-density of a previously undetected population of baryons, in the warm-hot phase of the intergalactic medium. We show that this mass density is consistent, within the uncertainties, with the mass density of the missing baryons.     

Revisiting the saproxylic beetle ‘Propomacrus cypriacus Alexis & Makris, 2002’ (Coleoptera: Euchiridae) using molecular,morphological and ecological data

Propomacrus cypriacus a saproxylic beetle endemic to Cyprus, was described as a species distinct from P. bimucronatus on the basis of a few morphological characters and has been evaluated as Critically Endangered by IUCN, as it depends on veteran trees and has a restricted distribution. Herein we explored the distribution, ecology, morphology and genetic variation of the populations from Cyprus, and we attempted a phylogenetic analysis including related species based on two mitochondrial and one nuclear DNA markers. We also used published mtDNA divergence rates to date cladogenetic events. Despite extensive sampling, we found only a small number of individuals, adding a few additional localities to the known distribution of the species, and we identified two more host species to those previously reported. Morphological examination showed that only the form of male protibiae differs consistently in Cyprus populations compared to those of P. bimucronatus from Turkey and the Lebanon. Nevertheless, genetic analyses do not support a distinct species status for populations from Cyprus, which should instead be considered as a subspecies of P. bimucronatus. Morphological and ecological data further support this conclusion. Cyprus populations have diverged from nearby continental ones in mid to late Pleistocene.     

A choice-semantical approach to theoretical truth

A central topic in the logic of science concerns the proper semantic analysis of theoretical sentences, that is sentences containing theoretical terms. In this paper, we present a novel choice-semantical account of theoretical truth based on the epsilon-term definition of theoretical terms. Specifically, we develop two ways of specifying the truth conditions of theoretical statements in a choice functional semantics, each giving rise to a corresponding logic of such statements. In order to investigate the inferential strength of these logical systems, we provide a translation of each truth definition into a modal definition of theoretical truth. Based on this, we show that the stronger notion of choice-semantical truth captures more adequately our informal semantic understanding of scientific statements.