地震灾害后不同受灾人群身心应激症状影响度分析

面对地震带来的巨大灾难,通过探讨地震后不同类型灾民身心应激症状的影响度,有利于有针对性地对灾民进行心理救助,减轻灾害影响,提高灾害救援效果。本文将地震后灾民身心应激症状分解为4个指标,即生理症状、认知症状、情绪症状和行为症状。采用突变级数法构建了地震灾害后灾民身心应激症状突变模型,并以5·12汶川地震为例做实证研究,对不同类型受灾人群身心应激症状影响度进行了分析。通过对比研究发现,不同类型人群身心应激症状所受影响程度不同,女性、中老年组以及重灾区人群身心应激症状最严重。即使同一类人群,在面对同样灾害时,其在生理症状、认知症状、情绪症状和行为症状4个方面所受影响程度也不同。本文采用突变模型对地震灾害后灾民身心应激症状进行研究,所得结论与既往相关研究结论基本一致,表明模型的评价结果可靠、有效,为灾后减灾工作提供了新的思路和方法。     

基于遗传算法的直觉模糊C均值聚类算法

 针对一般直觉模糊C均值聚类算法在寻优过程中易陷入局部最优解的问题,利用遗传算法具备全局寻优的优点,提出了一种基于遗传算法的直觉模糊C均值聚类算法。在该算法中聚类中心为直觉模糊数,这使得遗传过程中个体信息变得复杂,进而增大了约束问题的处理难度。本文对产生的个体采用适时分段的归一化方法,很好地解决了该问题。仿真结果表明该算法所得聚类结果不仅准确而且更为细致。     

某类重特大火灾数值模拟研究

某酒吧火灾、深圳舞王俱乐部火灾和福建长乐拉丁酒吧火灾的发生场所和火灾原因类似,且短时间就造成大量人员伤亡,研究这类火灾防控措施有较好的意义。本文利用FDS软件构造某酒吧的火灾模型,合理分析场所的人员情况设定疏散模拟参数,根据火场情况设定合适的火灾场景,分析热辐射、烟气温度、烟气毒性、烟气能见度等参数的变化过程,并得到可用疏散时间。结合CFE软件进行人员疏散过程模拟,模拟的预期火灾人员伤亡与实际情况较好相符;并对不同的可燃物类型、消防设施状况和待疏散人数进行火灾后果分析,可燃物分析结果说明装修用聚氨酯泡沫吸音棉是造成火灾极速蔓延的直接原因,这类材料产生大量的有毒浓烟,很快就造成人员伤亡;不同消防设施模拟分析的结果体现了自动消防设施的重要作用,公共娱乐场所的自动喷水灭火系统应推广快速响应喷头,未按国家标准安装自动消防设施是造成重大火灾人员伤亡的成灾原因;对酒吧不同待疏散人数的火灾预期伤亡数定量分析证明了公共娱乐场所定员管理的重要意义;模拟分析的结果可用于此类火灾成因分析和火灾防控措施研究。     

Serum levels of perfluorinated compounds in the general population in Shenzhen, China

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) have been detected in many environmental matrices, biota, and nonoccupationally exposed populations in China recently. However, little is known about the distribution and levels of various PFCs in the general population living in areas where there is PFC exposure. In the present study, the levels and prevalence of ten target PFCs were determined in 227 serum samples from a population of nonoccupationally exposed individuals in Shenzhen, China. Results indicated that human exposure to PFCs was prevalent in Shenzhen. Perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) was the dominant PFC contaminant in the serum samples, with a median concentration of 6.72 ng/mL, followed by perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) with a median concentration of 2.07 ng/mL. Other PFCs were detected at much lower concentrations, with median concentrations ranging from 0.02 to 0.87 ng/mL. Statistically, no significant (P>0.05) gender differences were observed for any of the PFCs. Significant (P<0.01) positive correlations were found between age and serum concentrations of the target PFCs, except for perfluorobutane sulfonate (R = 0.16, P = 0.01), perfluorohexanoic acid (R = 0.08, P = 0.22), and perfluoroheptanoic acid (R = 0.11, P = 0.10). Based on the one-compartment pharmacokinetic model, the total daily intakes of PFOA and PFOS for the general population in Shenzhen were calculated as 0.63 and 0.20 ng/kg body weight/day, respectively.     

Rolling-induced microstructure change in Zr_(65)Al_(7.5)Ni_(10)Cu_(12.5)Ag_5 bulk metallic glass

The microstructures and free-volume evolutions of as-cast and pre-annealed Zr65Al7.5Ni10Cu12.5Ag5 bulk metallic glasses during rolling deformation have been investigated. No phase transformation is detected in the as-cast/rolled specimen. However,the structural stability of the glass against plastic deformation is worse after pre-annealing,indicated by nanocrystallization in preannealed/rolled specimens with large deformation degrees. Moreover,with increasing deformation degree,the free-volume content in a ...     

A comparison of optimization theories for energy conservation in heat exchanger groups

In general,thermal processes can be classified into two categories: heat-work conversion processes and heat transfer processes. Correspondingly,the optimization of thermal processes has to have two different criteria:the well known entropy generation minimization method and the recently proposed entransy dissipation maximization method. This study analyzes the thermal issues in a heat exchanger group,and optimizes the unit arrangements under different constraints based on a suitable optimization crite-rion. The result indicates that the principle of minimum entropy generation rate is valid for optimizing heat exchangers in a ther-modynamic cycle with given boundary temperatures. In contrast,the entransy dissipation maximization is more suitable in heat exchanger optimizations involving only heat transfer processes. Furthermore,the entropy generation rate induced by dumping used streams into ambient surroundings has to be taken into account,except for that originating from the hot and cold-ends of heat exchangers,when using the entropy generation minimization to optimize heat exchangers undergoing a thermodynamic cycle.     

Forced response of atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium simulated by a climate system model

Variations in global atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium are simulated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. The model was driven by reconstructions of both natural forcing (solar variability and volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol). The model results are compared against proxy reconstruction data. The reconstructed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was out of phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the last millennium. During the ...     

论思维的复杂系统模型暨新一代专家系统的设想

在复杂系统研究思想指导下,构建了基于神经元网络结构的复杂系统思维模型,提出以网络节点表示概念,以网络连接表示命题,以网络回路实现知识表达,以网络节点间的时空动力学激发实现演绎推理等思维活动的理论新框架,并以此为基础对新一代专家系统进行了设计。     

救荒野豌豆对根竞争的响应及其识别机制

以救荒野豌豆为材料,研究其对邻体根的响应机制以及根之间的识别方式.结果表明:邻体根存在时,叶、茎、冠、根生物量,根冠比和花数量均没有变化,而繁殖生物量明显增加,表明根的生长与繁殖不存在权衡,也表明救荒野豌豆能够检测到邻体根的存在并做出响应;根之间的识别方式既有直接接触,也有间接的化感作用.     

中国经济发展与环境质量动态关系

运用向量误差修正模型,对中国人均GDP与污染物排放量之间关系进行先验性因果检验,并基于层次分析法测算了中国坏境污染综合指数.在此基础上,根据经济增长与环境质量的实际变动趋势,选用二次函数对人均GDP与环境污染综合指数之间的动态关系进行模拟.结果显示:无论从长期或短期来看,都存在着从人均GDP到各种污染物排放量的单向因果关系;中国环境污染综合指数随人均GDP的增加呈现上升趋势,环境质量随经济发展而逐步好转的现象尚未出现.从经济发展方式、环境政策等方面对导致上述结果的原因进行了解释.