Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition

In this paper we explore methodologies appropriate for evaluating a forecasting competition when the participants predict a number of variables that may be related to each other and are judged for a single period. Typically, forecasting competitions are judged on a variable‐by‐variable basis, but a multivariate analysis is required to determine how each competitor performed overall. We use three different multivariate tests to determine an overall winner for a forecasting competition for the German economy across 25 different institutions for a single time period using a vector of eight key economic variables. We find that neglecting the cross‐variable relationships greatly alters the outcome of the forecasting competition. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exercise-induced BCL2-regulated autophagy is required for muscle glucose homeostasis

Exercise has beneficial effects on human health, including protection against metabolic disorders such as diabetes. However, the cellular mechanisms underlying these effects are incompletely understood. The lysosomal degradation pathway, autophagy, is an intracellular recycling system that functions during basal conditions in organelle and protein quality control. During stress, increased levels of autophagy permit cells to adapt to changing nutritional and energy demands through protein catabolism. Moreover, in animal models, autophagy protects against diseases such as cancer, neurodegenerative disorders, infections, inflammatory diseases, ageing and insulin resistance. Here we show that acute exercise induces autophagy in skeletal and cardiac muscle of fed mice. To investigate the role of exercise-mediated autophagy in vivo, we generated mutant mice that show normal levels of basal autophagy but are deficient in stimulus (exercise- or starvation)-induced autophagy. These mice (termed BCL2 AAA mice) contain knock-in mutations in BCL2 phosphorylation sites (Thr69Ala, Ser70Ala and Ser84Ala) that prevent stimulus-induced disruption of the BCL2-beclin-1 complex and autophagy activation. BCL2 AAA mice show decreased endurance and altered glucose metabolism during acute exercise, as well as impaired chronic exercise-mediated protection against high-fat-diet-induced glucose intolerance. Thus, exercise induces autophagy, BCL2 is a crucial regulator of exercise- (and starvation)-induced autophagy in vivo, and autophagy induction may contribute to the beneficial metabolic effects of exercise.     

双取代簇阴离子RuCo3(CO)10(PPh3)2-与(PPh3Au)+的反应研究

双取代簇合物NEt4RuCo3(CO)10(PPh3)2与固体(PPh3Ay)Cl和TlPF6反应,生成了双取代簇合物AuPPh3RuCo3(CO)10(PPh3)2·CH2Cl2 Ⅰ后,双取代簇合物Ⅰ又逐渐转变为单取代簇合物AuPPh3RuCo3(CO)11(PPh3)Ⅱ.它们的组成和结构已通过元素分析、IR、31PNMR、59 Co NMR及有关反应验证.双取代簇合物Ⅰ中的两个取代基位置与反应物NEt4RuCo3(CO)10(PPh3)2中两个取代基的位置相同,即两个取代基中,一个占据与钴结合的位置(Co-P),而另一个占据与钌结合的位置(Ru-P).单取代簇合物Ⅱ中的一个取代基占据与钌结合的位置(Ru-P).