Quantitative Estimates of Outcrossing Rates in a Natural Population of Caldesia grandis （Alismataceae）

Outcrossing rate in a natural population of Caldesia grandis was estimated by the dominant random amplified polymorphism DNA (RAPD) marker using 10 open-pollinated progeny arrays of 24 individuals. The multilocus outcrossing rate estimated based on all 25 RAPD loci was 0.872 ±0.033 and the single-locus outcrossing rate was 0.795 ±0.032. Multilocus estimates did not differ significantly from the single-locus estimates. The fixation index, F, in the progeny estimated from RAPD data was -0.142 ±0.000. The estimates of multilocus outcrossing rates (t_m) and single-locus outcrossing rates (t_s) obtained from MLDT clearly indicate that outcrossing is predominant in the open-pollinated C. grandis population. An empirical analysis suggests that 15 should be the minimum number of dominant marker loci necessary to achieve robust estimates of t_m.     

Forecasting high‐frequency financial data with the ARFIMA–ARCH model

Financial data series are often described as exhibiting two non‐standard time series features. First, variance often changes over time, with alternating phases of high and low volatility. Such behaviour is well captured by ARCH models. Second, long memory may cause a slower decay of the autocorrelation function than would be implied by ARMA models. Fractionally integrated models have been offered as explanations. Recently, the ARFIMA–ARCH model class has been suggested as a way of coping with both phenomena simultaneously. For estimation we implement the bias correction of Cox and Reid ( 1987 ). For daily data on the Swiss 1‐month Euromarket interest rate during the period 1986–1989, the ARFIMA–ARCH (5,d,2/4) model with non‐integer d is selected by AIC. Model‐based out‐of‐sample forecasts for the mean are better than predictions based on conditionally homoscedastic white noise only for longer horizons (τ > 40). Regarding volatility forecasts, however, the selected ARFIMA–ARCH models dominate. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rock outcrops harbor native perennials in type-converted coastal scrub

Type-conversion of coastal scrub to exotic annual grassland has been extensive in certain parts of southern California, especially in drier inland locales. Field observations suggest that rock outcrops harbor native perennials associated with coastal scrub vegetation after conversion to exotic annual grassland has occurred. Surveys were conducted to test this observation. In addition, measures of fossorial mammal disturbance, soil depth, exotic annual plant abundance, and soil moisture were collected and used to infer potential mechanisms that may influence patterns of native and exotic vegetation. Results showed that larger outcrops are associated with more native perennial species than smaller outcrops, consistent with predictions based on species-area relationships. In addition, the edges of rock outcrops were shown to have greater native perennial species richness than the surrounding exotic annual grassland matrix. Higher soil moisture, lower soil depth, and less disturbance by Botta’s pocket gopher ( Thomomys bottae ) were also found at the edge of rock outcrops compared to the surrounding grassland matrix. Furthermore, soil depth was positively correlated with pocket gopher disturbance and with exotic annual grass cover. Rock outcrops serve as refuge habitat for native coastal scrub perennials in areas where exotic annual grasses have become dominant. Rock outcrops may become increasingly important for conservation efforts if remaining coastal scrub vegetation continues to deteriorate. Ha sido extensa la conversión de matorral costero a pradera anual exótica en ciertas partes del sur de California, especialmente en localidades áridas del interior. Observaciones de campo indican que los afloramientos rocosos albergan plantas perennes nativas asociadas con vegetación de matorral costero después de la conversión a pradera anual exótica. Llevamos a cabo estudios para comprobar esta observación. También medimos la perturbación por mamíferos fosoriales, la profundidad del suelo, la abundancia de plantas anuales exóticas y la humedad del suelo para inferir los posibles mecanismos que pudieran influenciar la distribución de vegetación nativa y foránea. Los resultados mostraron que los afloramientos rocosos grandes se asocian con más especies de plantas perennes nativas que los afloramientos pequeños; esto concuerda con predicciones basadas en relaciones especies-área. Además, los bordes de los afloramientos rocosos demostraron tener mayor riqueza de especies de plantas perennes nativas que la pradera exótica circundante. También encontramos mayor humedad del suelo, menor profundidad del suelo y menos perturbación ocasionada por la tuza de Botta ( Thomomys bottae ) en el borde de los afloramientos rocosos en comparación con la pradera circundante. Además, la profundidad del suelo estuvo correlacionada positivamente con la perturbación por tuzas y con la cubierta de pastos anuales exóticos. En resumen, los afloramientos rocosos probaron servir de hábitat de refugio para plantas perennes nativas del matorral costero donde han llegado a dominar los pastos anuales exóticos. Los afloramientos rocosos podrían volverse cada vez más importantes para los esfuerzos de conservación si la vegetación restante del matorral costero sigue deteriorándose.     

Revised checklist of the vascular plants of Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah

Prior to 1960, when the senior author wrote a dissertation on the plant ecology of the Paunsaugunt Plateau forests of Bryce Canyon National Park, relatively little plant taxonomic work had been done in the area. A checklist was prepared in 1971 that included 218 species of higher plants. During the field seasons 1978, 1979, and 1980, additional plants were collected during a second plant community study of the forests. The junior author spent the summer of 1980 at the park collecting plants in additional plant communities and organizing the herbarium collection. This checklist includes the additional species collected and updates the nomenclature of the vascular plants presently known to occur within the boundaries of Bryce Canyon National Park.     

Knowing of the Unknowable

A number of systemic theories appear to be converging in conclusion. The conclusion is that things are inherently unknowable to the human mind. People are coming to know of the unknowable. This paper introduces such ideas in the context of systemic practice. Implications for efficiency, effectiveness, and ethical matters are discussed.     

Editorial

Systemic Practice and Action Research -     

Predicting the signs of forecast errors

The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecasters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.