Sudden aseismic fault slip on the south flank of Kilauea volcano

One of the greatest hazards associated with oceanic volcanoes is not volcanic in nature, but lies with the potential for catastrophic flank failure. Such flank failure can result in devastating tsunamis and threaten not only the immediate vicinity, but coastal cities along the entire rim of an ocean basin. Kilauea volcano on the island of Hawaii, USA, is a potential source of such flank failures and has therefore been monitored by a network of continuously recording geodetic instruments, including global positioning system (GPS) receivers, tilt meters and strain meters. Here we report that, in early November 2000, this network recorded transient southeastward displacements, which we interpret as an episode of aseismic fault slip. The duration of the event was about 36 hours, it had an equivalent moment magnitude of 5.7 and a maximum slip velocity of about 6[?]cm per day. Inversion of the GPS data reveals a shallow-dipping thrust fault at a depth of 4.5[?]km that we interpret as the down-dip extension of the Hilina Pali--Holei Pali normal fault system. This demonstrates that continuously recording geodetic networks can detect accelerating slip, potentially leading to warnings of volcanic flank collapse.     

Mechanism of force generation by myosin heads in skeletal muscle

Muscles generate force and shortening in a cyclical interaction between the myosin head domains projecting from the myosin filaments and the adjacent actin filaments. Although many features of the dynamic performance of muscle are determined by the rates of attachment and detachment of myosin and actin, the primary event in force generation is thought to be a conformational change or 'working stroke' in the actin-bound myosin head. According to this hypothesis, the working stroke is much faster than attachment or detachment, but can be observed directly in the rapid force transients that follow step displacement of the filaments. Although many studies of the mechanism of muscle contraction have been based on this hypothesis, the alternative view-that the fast force transients are caused by fast components of attachment and detachment--has not been excluded definitively. Here we show that measurements of the axial motions of the myosin heads at ?ngstr?m resolution by a new X-ray interference technique rule out the rapid attachment/detachment hypothesis, and provide compelling support for the working stroke model of force generation.     

Performance constraints in decathletes

Physical performance by vertebrates is thought to be constrained by trade-offs between antagonistic pairs of ecologically relevant traits and between conflicting specialist and generalist phenotypes, but there is surprisingly little evidence to support this reasoning. Here we analyse the performance of world-class athletes in standardized decathlon events and find that it is subject to both types of trade-off, after correction has been made for differences between athletes in general ability across all 10 events. These trade-offs may have imposed important constraints on the evolution of physical performance in humans and other vertebrates.     

The methodological origins of Newton’s queries

This paper analyses the different ways in which Isaac Newton employed queries in his writings on natural philosophy. It is argued that queries were used in three different ways by Newton and that each of these uses is best understood against the background of the role that queries played in the Baconian method that was adopted by the leading experimenters of the early Royal Society. After a discussion of the role of queries in Francis Bacon’s natural historical method, Newton’s queries in his Trinity Notebook are shown to reveal the influence of his early reading in the new experimental philosophy. Then after a discussion of Robert Hooke’s view of the role of queries, the paper turns to an assessment of Newton’s correspondence and Opticks. It is argued that the queries in his correspondence with Oldenburg on his early optical experiments are closely tied to an experimental program, whereas the queries in the Opticks are more discursive and speculative, but that each of these uses of queries represents a significant Baconian legacy in his natural philosophical methodology.     

Aggregation of equivalence relations

Each ofn attributes partitions a set of items into equivalence classes. Aconsistent aggregator of then partitions is defined as an aggregate partition that satisfies an independence condition and a unanimity condition. It is shown that the class of consistent aggregators is precisely the class ofconjunctive aggregators. That is, for each consistent aggregator there is a nonempty subsetN of the attributes such that two items are equivalent in the aggregate partition if and only if they are equivalent with respect to each attribute inN.     

The Ackoff factor

My mother wanted me to become a wealthy corporate executive. My father didn't care what I became as long as I didn't do too well at it. Russ Ackoff wanted me to become whatever I wanted, and the better I could do at it, the happier he would be. I chose the last of these and have enjoyed every minute. Thanks, Russ.     

The consistency,coherence and calibration of holistic,decomposed and recomposed judgemental probability forecasts

In this paper we make an empirical investigation of the relationship between the consistency, coherence and validity of probability judgements in a real-world forecasting context. Our results indicate that these measures of the adequacy of an individual's probability assessments are not closely related as we anticipated. Twenty-nine of our thirty-six subjects were better calibrated in point probabilities than in odds and our subjects were, in general more coherent using point probabilities than odds forecasts. Contrary to our expectations we found very little difference in forecasting response and performance between simple and compound holistic forecasts. This result is evidence against the ‘divide-and-conquer’ rationale underlying most applications of normative decision theory. In addition, our recompositions of marginal and conditional assessments into compound forecasts were no better calibrated or resolved than their holistic counterparts. These findings convey two implications for forecasting. First, untrained judgemental forecasters should use point probabilities in preference to odds. Second, judgemental forecasts of complex compound probabilities may be as well assessed holistically as they are using methods of decomposition and recomposition. In addition, our study provides a paradigm for further studies of the relationship between consistency, coherence and validity in judgemental probability forecasting.     

Seasonal adjustment and kalman filtering: Extension to periodic variances

This paper reviews the relations between the methods of seasonal adjustment used by official statistical agencies and the ‘model-based’ methods that postulate explicit stochastic models for the unobserved components of a time series and apply optimal signal extraction theory to obtain a seasonally adjusted series. The Kalman filter implementation of the model-based methods is described and some recent results on its properties are reviewed. The model-based methods employ homogeneous or time-invariant models that assume in particular that the autocovariance structure does not vary with the season. Relaxing this leads to the class of models known as periodic models, and an example of a seasonally heterosceclastic unobserved-components ARIMA (SHUCARIMA) model is presented. The calculation of the standard error of a seasonally adjusted series via the Kalman filter is extended to this periodic model and illustrated for a monthly rainfall series.     

On a family of finite moving‐average trend filters for the ends of series

A family of finite end filters is constructed using a minimum revisions criterion and based on a local dynamic model operating within the span of a given finite central filter. These end filters are equivalent to evaluating the central filter with unavailable future observations replaced by constrained optimal linear predictions. Two prediction methods are considered: best linear unbiased prediction and best linear biased prediction where the bias is time invariant. The properties of these end filters are determined. In particular, they are compared to X‐11 end filters and to the case where the central filter is evaluated with unavailable future observations predicted by global ARIMA models as in X‐11‐ARIMA or X‐12‐ARIMA. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.