The consistency,coherence and calibration of holistic,decomposed and recomposed judgemental probability forecasts

In this paper we make an empirical investigation of the relationship between the consistency, coherence and validity of probability judgements in a real-world forecasting context. Our results indicate that these measures of the adequacy of an individual's probability assessments are not closely related as we anticipated. Twenty-nine of our thirty-six subjects were better calibrated in point probabilities than in odds and our subjects were, in general more coherent using point probabilities than odds forecasts. Contrary to our expectations we found very little difference in forecasting response and performance between simple and compound holistic forecasts. This result is evidence against the ‘divide-and-conquer’ rationale underlying most applications of normative decision theory. In addition, our recompositions of marginal and conditional assessments into compound forecasts were no better calibrated or resolved than their holistic counterparts. These findings convey two implications for forecasting. First, untrained judgemental forecasters should use point probabilities in preference to odds. Second, judgemental forecasts of complex compound probabilities may be as well assessed holistically as they are using methods of decomposition and recomposition. In addition, our study provides a paradigm for further studies of the relationship between consistency, coherence and validity in judgemental probability forecasting.     

Seasonal adjustment and kalman filtering: Extension to periodic variances

This paper reviews the relations between the methods of seasonal adjustment used by official statistical agencies and the ‘model-based’ methods that postulate explicit stochastic models for the unobserved components of a time series and apply optimal signal extraction theory to obtain a seasonally adjusted series. The Kalman filter implementation of the model-based methods is described and some recent results on its properties are reviewed. The model-based methods employ homogeneous or time-invariant models that assume in particular that the autocovariance structure does not vary with the season. Relaxing this leads to the class of models known as periodic models, and an example of a seasonally heterosceclastic unobserved-components ARIMA (SHUCARIMA) model is presented. The calculation of the standard error of a seasonally adjusted series via the Kalman filter is extended to this periodic model and illustrated for a monthly rainfall series.     

Dissociation between compensatory renal growth and induction of (Na++K+-ATPase in rat kidney after uninefrectomy

Zusammenfassung Nach Uninephrektomie und bilateraler Adrenalektomie entsteht eine Dissoziation zwischen der Nierenvergrösserung und der (Na⁺+K⁺)-ATPase Aktivität. Es besteht wahrscheinlich kein Zusammenhang zwischen der Nierenvergrösserung und der Induktion von (Na⁺+K⁺)-ATPase. Auch in der vergrösserten Niere sind die Nebennierenhormone notwendig, um die (Na⁺+K⁺)-ATPase zu erhalten.

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The work was supported by a grant from P. Carl Petersen's Fund. Mrs.Birthe Bagge Hansen provided excellent technical assistance.     

Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future

Atmospheric aerosols counteract the warming effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases by an uncertain, but potentially large, amount. This in turn leads to large uncertainties in the sensitivity of climate to human perturbations, and therefore also in carbon cycle feedbacks and projections of climate change. In the future, aerosol cooling is expected to decline relative to greenhouse gas forcing, because of the aerosols' much shorter lifetime and the pursuit of a cleaner atmosphere. Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

Evolutionary diversification of TTX-resistant sodium channels in a predator-prey interaction

Understanding the molecular genetic basis of adaptations provides incomparable insight into the genetic mechanisms by which evolutionary diversification takes place. Whether the evolution of common traits in different lineages proceeds by similar or unique mutations, and the degree to which phenotypic evolution is controlled by changes in gene regulation as opposed to gene function, are fundamental questions in evolutionary biology that require such an understanding of genetic mechanisms. Here we identify novel changes in the molecular structure of a sodium channel expressed in snake skeletal muscle, tsNa(V)1.4, that are responsible for differences in tetrodotoxin (TTX) resistance among garter snake populations coevolving with toxic newts. By the functional expression of tsNa(V)1.4, we show how differences in the amino-acid sequence of the channel affect TTX binding and impart different levels of resistance in four snake populations. These results indicate that the evolution of a physiological trait has occurred through a series of unique functional changes in a gene that is otherwise highly conserved among vertebrates.     

Adaptive evolution of non-coding DNA in Drosophila

A large fraction of eukaryotic genomes consists of DNA that is not translated into protein sequence, and little is known about its functional significance. Here I show that several classes of non-coding DNA in Drosophila are evolving considerably slower than synonymous sites, and yet show an excess of between-species divergence relative to polymorphism when compared with synonymous sites. The former is a hallmark of selective constraint, but the latter is a signature of adaptive evolution, resembling general patterns of protein evolution in Drosophila. I estimate that about 40-70% of nucleotides in intergenic regions, untranslated portions of mature mRNAs (UTRs) and most intronic DNA are evolutionarily constrained relative to synonymous sites. However, I also use an extension to the McDonald-Kreitman test to show that a substantial fraction of the nucleotide divergence in these regions was driven to fixation by positive selection (about 20% for most intronic and intergenic DNA, and 60% for UTRs). On the basis of these observations, I suggest that a large fraction of the non-translated genome is functionally important and subject to both purifying selection and adaptive evolution. These results imply that, although positive selection is clearly an important facet of protein evolution, adaptive changes to non-coding DNA might have been considerably more common in the evolution of D. melanogaster.     

Trace element signature of subduction-zone fluids, melts and supercritical liquids at 120-180 km depth

Fluids and melts liberated from subducting oceanic crust recycle lithophile elements back into the mantle wedge, facilitate melting and ultimately lead to prolific subduction-zone arc volcanism. The nature and composition of the mobile phases generated in the subducting slab at high pressures have, however, remained largely unknown. Here we report direct LA-ICPMS measurements of the composition of fluids and melts equilibrated with a basaltic eclogite at pressures equivalent to depths in the Earth of 120-180 km and temperatures of 700-1,200 degrees C. The resultant liquid/mineral partition coefficients constrain the recycling rates of key elements. The dichotomy of dehydration versus melting at 120 km depth is expressed through contrasting behaviour of many trace elements (U/Th, Sr, Ba, Be and the light rare-earth elements). At pressures equivalent to 180 km depth, however, a supercritical liquid with melt-like solubilities for the investigated trace elements is observed, even at low temperatures. This mobilizes most of the key trace elements (except the heavy rare-earth elements, Y and Sc) and thus limits fluid-phase transfer of geochemical signatures in subduction zones to pressures less than 6 GPa.     

Global hotspots of species richness are not congruent with endemism or threat

Biodiversity hotspots have a prominent role in conservation biology, but it remains controversial to what extent different types of hotspot are congruent. Previous studies were unable to provide a general answer because they used a single biodiversity index, were geographically restricted, compared areas of unequal size or did not quantitatively compare hotspot types. Here we use a new global database on the breeding distribution of all known extant bird species to test for congruence across three types of hotspot. We demonstrate that hotspots of species richness, threat and endemism do not show the same geographical distribution. Only 2.5% of hotspot areas are common to all three aspects of diversity, with over 80% of hotspots being idiosyncratic. More generally, there is a surprisingly low overall congruence of biodiversity indices, with any one index explaining less than 24% of variation in the other indices. These results suggest that, even within a single taxonomic class, different mechanisms are responsible for the origin and maintenance of different aspects of diversity. Consequently, the different types of hotspots also vary greatly in their utility as conservation tools.