Oil financialization and volatility forecast: Evidence from multidimensional predictors

Using the generalized dynamic factor model, this study constructs three predictors of crude oil price volatility: a fundamental (physical) predictor, a financial predictor, and a macroeconomic uncertainty predictor. Moreover, an event‐triggered predictor is constructed using data extracted from Google Trends. We construct GARCH‐MIDAS (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity–mixed‐data sampling) models combining realized volatility with the predictors to predict oil price volatility at different forecasting horizons. We then identify the predictive power of the realized volatility and the predictors by the model confidence set (MCS) test. The findings show that, among the four indexes, the financial predictor has the most predictive power for crude oil volatility, which provides strong evidence that financialization has been the key determinant of crude oil price behavior since the 2008 global financial crisis. In addition, the fundamental predictor, followed by the financial predictor, effectively forecasts crude oil price volatility in the long‐run forecasting horizons. Our findings indicate that the different predictors can provide distinct predictive information at the different horizons given the specific market situation. These findings have useful implications for market traders in terms of managing crude oil price risk.     

Muscleblind participates in RNA toxicity of expanded CAG and CUG repeats in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Caenorhabditis elegans</Emphasis>

We have utilized Caenorhabditis elegans as a model to investigate the toxicity and underlying mechanism of untranslated CAG repeats in comparison to CUG repeats. Our results indicate that CAG repeats can be toxic at the RNA level in a length-dependent manner, similar to that of CUG repeats. Both CAG and CUG repeats of toxic length form nuclear foci and co-localize with C. elegans muscleblind (CeMBL), implying that CeMBL may play a role in repeat RNA toxicity. Consistently, the phenotypes of worms expressing toxic CAG and CUG repeats, including shortened life span and reduced motility rate, were partially reversed by CeMbl over-expression. These results provide the first experimental evidence to show that the RNA toxicity induced by expanded CAG and CUG repeats can be mediated, at least in part, through the functional alteration of muscleblind in worms.     

Research on internet traffic classification techniques using supervised machine learning

Internet traffic classification is vital to the areas of network operation and management. Traditional classification methods such as port mapping and payload analysis are becoming increasingly difficult as newly emerged applications (e.g. Peer-to-Peer) using dynamic port numbers, masquerading techniques and encryption to avoid detection. This paper presents a machine learning (ML) based traffic classification scheme, which offers solutions to a variety of network activities and provides a platform of performance evaluation for the classifiers. The impact of dataset size, feature selection, number of application types and ML algorithm selection on classification performance is analyzed and demonstrated by the following experiments: (1) The genetic algorithm based feature selection can dramatically reduce the cost without diminishing classification accuracy. (2) The chosen ML algorithms can achieve high classification accuracy. Particularly, REPTree and C45 outperform the other ML algorithms when computational complexity and accuracy are both taken into account. (3) Larger dataset and fewer application types would result in better classification accuracy. Finally, early detection with only several initial packets is proposed for real-time network activity and it is proved to be feasible according to the preliminary results.     

氯代苯酚类化合物分子连接性指数与光催化活性关系研究

对水中有机物定量结构-光催化降解活性相关(QSAR)模型的研究工作较少.用分子连接性指数法成功地建立了11个氯酚类化合物光催化降解反应速率常数与分子连接性指数之间的QSAR模型.二氧化碳生成速率常数模型为:KCO2=43.445Χpc-61.124Χp+76.23(R=0.947,n=9);表观降解速率常数模型为:Kapp=2.85lgKow-2.974Χp-0.13 ( R=0.954,n=11).计算值与实验值吻合的很好,表明所提取的结构参量较好地反映这类化合物的结构特性与光催化活性的关系.取代基相同的条件下,反应速率常数与简单分子连接性指数有很好相关性,这说明化合物的光催化降解性能受分子结构特别是空间因素影响较大.     

灭幼脲Ⅰ号防治松毛虫的研究

灭幼脲是一类昆虫生长调节剂,对幼虫具有致迟效应,对卵具有杀伤作用.本文研究了它对松毛虫的生长和发育的抑制效应和对松毛虫卵的毒效作用,并进行了大面积防治试验.结果证明,灭幼脲对松毛虫毒性高、用量小、成本低、效果好,是一种理想的杀虫剂.     

含Sc铝镁合金超塑变形行为与显微组织特征

研究了含微量Ｓｃ元素的ＡｌＭｇ合金在超塑变形过程中的力学行为和显微组织．结果表明：合金可在较宽温度和应变速率范围内获得良好的超塑性．在温度为５２０℃,初始应变速率为１６７×１０－３ｓ－１条件下拉伸变形时最大延伸率可以达到３９６％．显微组织分析发现,合金的超塑性效应是由变形初期的动态再结晶诱发产生,其超塑变形过程可分为亚晶超塑性阶段、过渡阶段和细晶超塑性阶段．     

底部空气柱装药爆破效果模型试验研究

本文通过水泥砂浆模型上的一系列爆破漏斗试验,研究底部空气柱装药的爆破效果,分析了底部空气柱长度变化对爆破作用的影响规律。结果表明,底部空气柱长度与装药深度之比为0.4～0.8时,爆破效果最佳,爆破体积比传统的装药结构增大45％～55％,显著提高了炸药能量有效利用率。文中提出了底部空气柱效应新概念,探讨了底部空气柱效应的作用机理。     

非均匀覆盖层谐振腔天线设计

提出了一种非均匀覆盖层谐振腔天线设计方法.通过构造反射系数幅值随天线口径面位置变化的函数来实现谐振腔天线覆盖层的非均匀化.使用金属化过孔作为周期结构覆盖层的谐振单元,分别设计出满足反射系数变化的变谐振单元长度和变过孔直径的两种非均匀覆盖层谐振腔天线.它们的阻抗特性、方向图和增益,同具有等反射系数变化规律的非均匀介质覆盖层谐振腔天线一致.结果表明,覆盖层的反射系数变化规律是非均匀覆盖层谐振腔天线的决定因数.设计出的两种非均匀覆盖层谐振腔天线实测|S_(11)| -10dB阻抗带宽均大于8%,增益均大于18dBi,同时在阻抗带宽内增益相比峰值增益下降均小于1.5dB.     

丝网印刷碳纳米管显示器驱动电路的研制

为解决采用丝网印刷技术制作的碳纳米管显示器件(CNT-FED)驱动电压高、亮度均匀性差的问题,设计并实现了电压控制的寻址与显示分离型的驱动电路.采用分离高压控制器件实现了行、列驱动电压波形,并利用反向高压控制暗像素点,不仅能满足丝网印刷CNT-FED 700~1 000 V的高压驱动要求,并且有效抑制了漏电流导致的串亮现象.在各行电路上设计了限流电阻,对场发射电流起到反馈作用,有效改善了亮度均匀性.该驱动电路成本低,且从电路角度提升了丝网印刷CNT-FED的亮度和发光均匀性.测试结果表明:由新电路驱动的CNT-FED可实现动画显示,峰值亮度可达到1 400 cd/m2.     

关于设计的十年一问(下)

以十年分段,针对1900年到2000年110年间的11件经典设计作品,展开了对设计的一系列追问,包括宏观层面的工业化问题、商业化问题、创新问题;史观层面的包豪斯理想、人道主义精神与后现代趣味;微观层面的形式美问题、材料问题、技术问题、人机问题与情感问题等,以此帮助我们认识并理解设计的本质特性,使我们的知识能力、工作方法和思维方式不断充实与完善,以适应并解决社会诸环节发展变化所带来的新问题与新视点.