Nonparametric Quantile Regression‐Based Classifiers for Bankruptcy Forecasting

An improved classification device for bankruptcy forecasting is proposed. The proposed approach relies on mainstream classifiers whose inputs are obtained from a so‐called multinorm analysis, instead of traditional indicators such as the ROA ratio and other accounting ratios. A battery of industry norms (computed by using nonparametric quantile regressions) is obtained, and the deviations of each firm from this multinorm system are used as inputs for the classifiers. The approach is applied to predict bankruptcy on a representative sample of Spanish manufacturing firms. Results indicate that our proposal may significantly enhance predictive accuracy, both in linear and nonlinear classifiers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Models as Points of View: The Case of System Dynamics

We propose an analysis of the notion of model as crucially related to the notion of point of view. A model in this sense would always suggest a certain way of looking at a real system, a certain way of thinking about it and a certain way of acting upon it. We focus on System Dynamics as a paradigmatic case with respect to many of the features and problems we can find in the field of modelling and simulation. We analyse in detail some of those features. All of them would be present in many other cases of construction and use of models. Furthermore, they would support the thesis that a model can be fruitfully understood as offering a point of view capable of improving our own points of view over a certain system. The point of view offered by the model could include both non-conceptual and conceptual contents, it would have a complex structure and behaviour, and it would have direct consequences on the decisions made by the subjects adopting that point of view.     

Post-traumatic stress disorder is associated with PACAP and the PAC1 receptor

Pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide (PACAP) is known to broadly regulate the cellular stress response. In contrast, it is unclear if the PACAP-PAC1 receptor pathway has a role in human psychological stress responses, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Here we find, in heavily traumatized subjects, a sex-specific association of PACAP blood levels with fear physiology, PTSD diagnosis and symptoms in females. We examined 44 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning the PACAP (encoded by ADCYAP1) and PAC1 (encoded by ADCYAP1R1) genes, demonstrating a sex-specific association with PTSD. A single SNP in a putative oestrogen response element within ADCYAP1R1, rs2267735, predicts PTSD diagnosis and symptoms in females only. This SNP also associates with fear discrimination and with ADCYAP1R1 messenger RNA expression in human brain. Methylation of ADCYAP1R1 in peripheral blood is also associated with PTSD. Complementing these human data, ADCYAP1R1 mRNA is induced with fear conditioning or oestrogen replacement in rodent models. These data suggest that perturbations in the PACAP-PAC1 pathway are involved in abnormal stress responses underlying PTSD. These sex-specific effects may occur via oestrogen regulation of ADCYAP1R1. PACAP levels and ADCYAP1R1 SNPs may serve as useful biomarkers to further our mechanistic understanding of PTSD.     

Postnatal loss of Dlk1 imprinting in stem cells and niche astrocytes regulates neurogenesis

The gene for the atypical NOTCH ligand delta-like homologue 1 (Dlk1) encodes membrane-bound and secreted isoforms that function in several developmental processes in vitro and in vivo. Dlk1, a member of a cluster of imprinted genes, is expressed from the paternally inherited chromosome. Here we show that mice that are deficient in Dlk1 have defects in postnatal neurogenesis in the subventricular zone: a developmental continuum that results in depletion of mature neurons in the olfactory bulb. We show that DLK1 is secreted by niche astrocytes, whereas its membrane-bound isoform is present in neural stem cells (NSCs) and is required for the inductive effect of secreted DLK1 on self-renewal. Notably, we find that there is a requirement for Dlk1 to be expressed from both maternally and paternally inherited chromosomes. Selective absence of Dlk1 imprinting in both NSCs and niche astrocytes is associated with postnatal acquisition of DNA methylation at the germ-line-derived imprinting control region. The results emphasize molecular relationships between NSCs and the niche astrocyte cells of the microenvironment, identifying a signalling system encoded by a single gene that functions coordinately in both cell types. The modulation of genomic imprinting in a stem-cell environment adds a new level of epigenetic regulation to the establishment and maintenance of the niche, raising wider questions about the adaptability, function and evolution of imprinting in specific developmental contexts.     

Northern Hemisphere forcing of climatic cycles in Antarctica over the past 360,000 years

The Milankovitch theory of climate change proposes that glacial-interglacial cycles are driven by changes in summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The timing of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere at glacial-interglacial transitions (which are known as terminations) relative to variations in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere is an important test of this hypothesis. So far, it has only been possible to apply this test to the most recent termination, because the dating uncertainty associated with older terminations is too large to allow phase relationships to be determined. Here we present a new chronology of Antarctic climate change over the past 360,000 years that is based on the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen molecules in air trapped in the Dome Fuji and Vostok ice cores. This ratio is a proxy for local summer insolation, and thus allows the chronology to be constructed by orbital tuning without the need to assume a lag between a climate record and an orbital parameter. The accuracy of the chronology allows us to examine the phase relationships between climate records from the ice cores and changes in insolation. Our results indicate that orbital-scale Antarctic climate change lags Northern Hemisphere insolation by a few millennia, and that the increases in Antarctic temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration during the last four terminations occurred within the rising phase of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. These results support the Milankovitch theory that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation triggered the last four deglaciations.     

Genome of the marsupial Monodelphis domestica reveals innovation in non-coding sequences

We report a high-quality draft of the genome sequence of the grey, short-tailed opossum (Monodelphis domestica). As the first metatherian ('marsupial') species to be sequenced, the opossum provides a unique perspective on the organization and evolution of mammalian genomes. Distinctive features of the opossum chromosomes provide support for recent theories about genome evolution and function, including a strong influence of biased gene conversion on nucleotide sequence composition, and a relationship between chromosomal characteristics and X chromosome inactivation. Comparison of opossum and eutherian genomes also reveals a sharp difference in evolutionary innovation between protein-coding and non-coding functional elements. True innovation in protein-coding genes seems to be relatively rare, with lineage-specific differences being largely due to diversification and rapid turnover in gene families involved in environmental interactions. In contrast, about 20% of eutherian conserved non-coding elements (CNEs) are recent inventions that postdate the divergence of Eutheria and Metatheria. A substantial proportion of these eutherian-specific CNEs arose from sequence inserted by transposable elements, pointing to transposons as a major creative force in the evolution of mammalian gene regulation.     

Light-cone-like spreading of correlations in a quantum many-body system

In relativistic quantum field theory, information propagation is bounded by the speed of light. No such limit exists in the non-relativistic case, although in real physical systems, short-range interactions may be expected to restrict the propagation of information to finite velocities. The question of how fast correlations can spread in quantum many-body systems has been long studied. The existence of a maximal velocity, known as the Lieb-Robinson bound, has been shown theoretically to exist in several interacting many-body systems (for example, spins on a lattice)--such systems can be regarded as exhibiting an effective light cone that bounds the propagation speed of correlations. The existence of such a 'speed of light' has profound implications for condensed matter physics and quantum information, but has not been observed experimentally. Here we report the time-resolved detection of propagating correlations in an interacting quantum many-body system. By quenching a one-dimensional quantum gas in an optical lattice, we reveal how quasiparticle pairs transport correlations with a finite velocity across the system, resulting in an effective light cone for the quantum dynamics. Our results open perspectives for understanding the relaxation of closed quantum systems far from equilibrium, and for engineering the efficient quantum channels necessary for fast quantum computations.