The effectiveness of imprecise probability forecasts

In this paper we investigate the feasibility of algorithmically deriving precise probability forecasts from imprecise forecasts. We provide an empirical evaluation of precise probabilities that have been derived from two types of imprecise probability forecasts: probability intervals and probability intervals with second-order probability distributions. The minimum cross-entropy (MCE) principle is applied to the former to derive precise (i.e. additive) probabilities; expectation (EX) is used to derive precise probabilities in the latter case. Probability intervals that were constructed without second-order probabilities tended to be narrower than and contained in those that were amplified by second-order probabilities. Evidence that this narrowness is due to motivational bias is presented. Analysis of forecasters' mean Probability Scores for the derived precise probabilities indicates that it is possible to derive precise forecasts whose external correspondence is as good as directly assessed precise probability forecasts. The forecasts of the EX method, however, are more like the directly assessed precise forecasts than those of the MCE method.     

Book reviews

Affiliated to Astrophysics Div., Space Science Department, European Space Agency.     

Regulation of the bacterial cell cycle by an integrated genetic circuit

How bacteria regulate cell cycle progression at a molecular level is a fundamental but poorly understood problem. In Caulobacter crescentus, two-component signal transduction proteins are crucial for cell cycle regulation, but the connectivity of regulators involved has remained elusive and key factors are unidentified. Here we identify ChpT, an essential histidine phosphotransferase that controls the activity of CtrA, the master cell cycle regulator. We show that the essential histidine kinase CckA initiates two phosphorelays, each requiring ChpT, which lead to the phosphorylation and stabilization of CtrA. Downregulation of CckA activity therefore results in the dephosphorylation and degradation of CtrA, which in turn allow the initiation of DNA replication. Furthermore, we show that CtrA triggers its own destruction by promoting cell division and inducing synthesis of the essential regulator DivK, which feeds back to downregulate CckA immediately before S phase. Our results define a single integrated circuit whose components and connectivity can account for the cell cycle oscillations of CtrA in Caulobacter.     

Mechanotransduction through growth-factor shedding into the extracellular space

Physical forces elicit biochemical signalling in a diverse array of cells, tissues and organisms, helping to govern fundamental biological processes. Several hypotheses have been advanced that link physical forces to intracellular signalling pathways, but in many cases the molecular mechanisms of mechanotransduction remain elusive. Here we find that compressive stress shrinks the lateral intercellular space surrounding epithelial cells, and triggers cellular signalling via autocrine binding of epidermal growth factor family ligands to the epidermal growth factor receptor. Mathematical analysis predicts that constant rate shedding of autocrine ligands into a collapsing lateral intercellular space leads to increased local ligand concentrations that are sufficient to account for the observed receptor signalling; direct experimental comparison of signalling stimulated by compressive stress versus exogenous soluble ligand supports this prediction. These findings establish a mechanism by which mechanotransduction arises from an autocrine ligand-receptor circuit operating in a dynamically regulated extracellular volume, not requiring induction of force-dependent biochemical processes within the cell or cell membrane.     

黄土高原西缘在AD 1875~2003期间石笋氧同位素记录的季风降水变化与海气系统的联系

基于黄土高原西部甘肃武都万象洞中一根石笋0~16 mm之间的5个高精度²³⁰Th年代和103个δ¹⁸O数据, 重建了亚洲季风边缘区过去100多年来高分辨率的季风降水变化历史. 通过与武都器测降水数据对比发现, 最近50多年来石笋氧同位素组成受降雨量效应的影响, 指示了亚洲季风的强弱变化及其带来的降水量信息. 近100多年来亚洲季风的变化历史可分为季风降水增强期(AD 1875~1900)、季风降水减弱期(AD 1901~1946)和季风降水再次增强期(AD 1947~2003) 3个气候段, 而且这3个季风变化阶段与通过历史文献记载建立的旱涝指数变化相似. 近100多年来万象洞石笋氧同位素记录的季风强度变化与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)密切相关, 年代际时间尺度上PDO暖(冷)相位与季风降水的减少(增加)对应; 但在1977年之后出现了季风降水变化和PDO的反相位关系, 很可能是北太平洋在1976/1977年前后发生的年代际气候跃变的反映. 说明现代亚洲季风强度及季风降水变化通过海气相互作用与太平洋密切相关. 这种关系将有助于亚洲季风区水循环的预测, 而且可以利用洞穴观测数据来提高气候模型的预测能力.