Gordon Pask's Conversation Theory: A Domain Independent Constructivist Model of Human Knowing

Although it is conceded (as argued by many)that distinct knowledge domains do presentparticular problems of coming to know, in thispaper it is argued that it is possible (anduseful) to construct a domain independent modelof the processes of coming to know, one inwhich observers share understandings and do soin agreed ways. The model in question is partof the conversation theory (CT) of Gordon Pask. CT, as a theory of theory construction andcommunication, has particular relevance forfoundational issues in science and scienceeducation. CT explicitly propounds a ``radicalconstructivist' (RC) epistemology. A briefaccount is given of the main tenets of RC andCT's place in that tradition and the traditionsof cybernetics. The paper presents a briefnon-technical account of the main concepts ofCT including elaborations by Laurillard andHarri-Augstein and Thomas. As part of CT, Pask also elaborated a methodology – knowledgeand task analysis – for analysing the structureof different knowledge domains; thismethodology is sketched in outline.     

Prey selection and food habits of Burrowing Owls in Colorado

Food habits of Burrowing Owls ( Speotyto cunicularia ) were studied during the breeding seasons of 1990 and 1991 in central Colorado. Concurrent insect availability studies were conducted to determine selection for specific insect families. Analysis of 1445 castings indicated use of only one insect family, the carrion beetles (Silphidae), at a rate greater than expected based on availability in one year. Castings and prey remains showed different dietary components. Prey remains showed greater use of small mammals, moths, amphibians, and passerines, and castings indicated greater use of mice and beetles. Methodology in raptor food habits studies may therefore bias results.     

Identification of asymmetric prediction intervals through causal forces

When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with the trend based on extrapolation. Series in which the expected trend conflicts with the extrapolated trend are called contrary series. We hypothesized that contrary series would have asymmetric forecast errors, with larger errors in the direction of the expected trend. Using annual series that contained minimal information about causality, we examined 671 contrary forecasts. As expected, most (81%) of the errors were in the direction of the causal forces. Also as expected, the asymmetries were more likely for longer forecast horizons; for six‐year‐ahead forecasts, 89% of the forecasts were in the expected direction. The asymmetries were often substantial. Contrary series should be flagged and treated separately when prediction intervals are estimated, perhaps by shifting the interval in the direction of the causal forces. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correspondence on the selection of error measures for comparisons among forecasting methods

Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment (GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based their conclusion on the fact that rankings based on GFESM remain unaltered if the series are linearly transformed. In this paper, we argue that this evaluation ignores other important criteria. Also, their conclusions were illustrated by a simulation study whose relationship to real data was not obvious. Thirdly, prior empirical studies show that the mean square error is an inappropriate measure to serve as a basis for comparison. This undermines the claims made for the GFESM.     

Training Load Monitoring Algorithms on Highly Sub-Metered Home Electricity Consumption Data

The growing interest in energy-efficient buildings is driving changes in investment, design, and occupant behavior. To better focus cost and resource conservation efforts, electricity consumption feedback can be used to provide motivation, guidance, and verification. Disaggregating by end-use helps both consumers and producers to identify targets for conservation. While hardware-based sub-metering is costly and labor-intensive, non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) is capable of gathering detailed energy-use data with minimal equipment cost and installation time. However, variations in measurements between metering devices complicate the process of compiling the necessary appliance profiles. Future work involves the devel-opment of NILM algorithms using sensor fusion and detailed appliance-level data gathered from a highly-sensed house currently being constructed near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.