The impact of seasonal constants on forecasting seasonally cointegrated time series

In this paper we focus on the effect of (i) deleting, (ii) restricting or (iii) not restricting seasonal intercept terms on forecasting sets of seasonally cointegrated macroeconomic time series for Austria, Germany and the UK. A first empirical result is that the number of cointegrating vectors as well as the relevant estimated parameter values vary across the three models. A second result is that the quality of out-of-sample forecasts critically depends on the way seasonal constants are treated. In most cases, predictive performance can be improved by restricting the effects of seasonal constants. However, we find that the relative advantages and disadvantages of each of the three methods vary across the data sets and may depend on sample-specific features. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A collision in 2009 as the origin of the debris trail of asteroid P/2010 A2

The peculiar object P/2010?A2 was discovered in January 2010 and given a cometary designation because of the presence of a trail of material, although there was no central condensation or coma. The appearance of this object, in an asteroidal orbit (small eccentricity and inclination) in the inner main asteroid belt attracted attention as a potential new member of the recently recognized class of main-belt comets. If confirmed, this new object would expand the range in heliocentric distance over which main-belt comets are found. Here we report observations of P/2010?A2 by the Rosetta spacecraft. We conclude that the trail arose from a single event, rather than a period of cometary activity, in agreement with independent results. The trail is made up of relatively large particles of millimetre to centimetre size that remain close to the parent asteroid. The shape of the trail can be explained by an initial impact ejecting large clumps of debris that disintegrated and dispersed almost immediately. We determine that this was an asteroid collision that occurred around 10 February 2009.     

Thinking Through the Prism of Life

The article provides an overview of the argument in Robert Scharff’s paper “Displacing epistemology: Being in the midst of technoscientific practice” (Scharff 2011), focusing on his central objective, to articulate a hidden ground of the current controversies in the philosophy of science and technology studies, between objectivism and constructivism, through a deeper confrontation with Heidegger’s legacy. The commentary addresses two aspects of Scharffs argument that deserve to be developed further, namely how it both criticizes and cultivates itself an ideal of the meta-knower, and how the idea of thinking from the perspective of life in Dilthey’s sense can be critically reflected through Heidegger’s later criticism. By rehearsing Heidegger’s understanding of truth as aletheia, and also his gradually increased criticism of the very concept of life, the commentary tries to show how Scharff’s intervention can in fact be strengthened against possible criticism.     

基于拉格朗日模型的CO2气固两相圆管内突扩流动沉积特性分析

CO2在通过安全阀的排放过程中,形成的固体CO2在安全阀下游管道突扩处沉积,导致管路的堵塞和冻结,危害被保护系统的安全.为了寻求减少固体CO2在安全阀下游管道突扩处的沉积量和进一步避免管道堵塞的方法,利用拉格朗日模型对CO2气固两相紊流在突扩管内的流动和沉积特性进行计算,通过比较沉积率计算值与实验值,验证了计算结果的合理性;利用该模型分析了各种流动参数对流动和沉积特性的影响.结果表明,通过安全阀开启排放过程中生成的固体颗粒直径尽可能远离颗粒回流量的峰值区域(即颗粒直径0.04~0.07 mm,St数为3.2~9.8的区域),可以降低固体CO2的沉积量,从而避免管道的堵塞和冻结.具体可以通过设计适当的安全阀开启时最小流通截面面积做到.     

Superoxide anion scavenging effect and superoxide dismutase activity ofGinkgo biloba extract

Summary Ginkgo biloba extract is known to be efficient in diseases associated with free radical generation. The purpose of this work was to study, under in vitro conditions, the action ofGinkgo biloba extract (Gbe) against superoxide anion ( ), which is directly or indirectly implicated in cell damage.Gbe appears to have both an scavenging effect and also a superoxide dismutase activity. Its antiradical effect was demonstrated by low temperature electron spin resonance and in a non-enzymatic system (phenazine methosulfate-NADH), and its enzymatic activity was shown by polarographic determination.     

Collaborative Assessments in Computer Science Education: A Survey

As computer science enrollments continue to surge, assessments that involve student collaboration may play a more critical role in improving student learning. We provide a review on some of the most commonly adopted collaborative assessments in computer science, including pair programming, collaborative exams, and group projects. Existing research on these assessment formats is categorized and compared. We also discuss potential future research topics on the aforementioned collaborative assessment formats.     

Abductive Reasoning as a Way of Worldmaking

The author deals with the operational core oflogic, i.e. its diverse procedures ofinference, in order to show that logicallyfalse inferences may in fact be right because –in contrast to logical rationality – theyactually enlarge our knowledge of the world.This does not only mean that logically trueinferences say nothing about the world, butalso that all our inferences are inventedhypotheses the adequacy of which cannot beproved within logic but only pragmatically. Inconclusion the author demonstrates, through therelationship between rule-following andrationality, that it is most irrational to wantto exclude the irrational: it may, at times, bemost rational to think and infer irrationally.Focussing on the operational aspects of knowingas inferring does away with the hiatus betweenlogic and life, cognition and the world(reality) – or whatever other dualism one wantsto invoke –: knowing means inferring, inferringmeans rule-governed interpreting, interpretingis a constructive, synthetic act, and aconstruction that proves adequate (viable) inthe ``world of experience', in life, in thepraxis of living, is, to the constructivistmind, knowledge. It is the practice of livingwhich provides the orienting standards forconstructivist thinking and its judgments ofviability. The question of truth is replaced bythe question of viability, and viabilitydepends on the (right) kind of experiential fit.     

DSC analyses of static and dynamic precipitation of an Al–Mg–Si–Cu aluminum alloy

In the present investigation, both static and dynamic precipitations of an Al–Mg–Si–Cu aluminum alloy after solid-solution treatment(SST)were comparatively analyzed using differential scanning calorimetry(DSC). Dynamic aging was performed in the SST alloy through equal channel angular pressing(ECAP) at different temperatures of room temperature, 110, 170, 191 and 300 1C. For comparison, static artificial aging was conducted in the SST alloy at 191 1C with two aging times of 4 and 10 h. The DSC analyses reveal that the dynamic precipitation has occurred in the ECAPed samples, while the activation energies associated with the strengthening precipitates in the dynamic samples are considerably higher than the energies in the SST and static aged samples. The higher activation energies are probably attributed to the smaller grains and higher dislocation density developed after ECAP. The results in the present investigation allow the prediction of the type of the dynamic precipitates to influence the strength of the ultrafine grained alloy during ECAP at various temperatures.