Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: The relative performance of judgementally revised versus non-revised forecasts

The judgemental revision of sales forecasts is an issue which is receiving increasing attention in the forecasting literature. This paper compares the performance of forecasts after revision by managers with that of the forecasts which were accepted by them without revision. The data set consists of sales forecasting data from an industrial company, spanning six quarterly periods and relating to some 900 individual products. The findings show that, in general, the improvements made by managers bring the forecast errors of revised forecasts more into line with non-revised forecasts, but the change is often marginal, and the best result is equivalence between revised and non-revised forecasts.     

Direct integration of Hox and segmentation gene inputs during Drosophila development

During Drosophila embryogenesis, segments, each with an anterior and posterior compartment, are generated by the segmentation genes while the Hox genes provide each segment with a unique identity. These two processes have been thought to occur independently. Here we show that abdominal Hox proteins work directly with two different segmentation proteins, Sloppy paired and Engrailed, to repress the Hox target gene Distalless in anterior and posterior compartments, respectively. These results suggest that segmentation proteins can function as Hox cofactors and reveal a previously unanticipated use of compartments for gene regulation by Hox proteins. Our results suggest that these two classes of proteins may collaborate to directly control gene expression at many downstream target genes.     

Calcium transients in astrocyte endfeet cause cerebrovascular constrictions

Cerebral blood flow (CBF) is coupled to neuronal activity and is imaged in vivo to map brain activation. CBF is also modified by afferent projection fibres that release vasoactive neurotransmitters in the perivascular region, principally on the astrocyte endfeet that outline cerebral blood vessels. However, the role of astrocytes in the regulation of cerebrovascular tone remains uncertain. Here we determine the impact of intracellular Ca(2+) concentrations ([Ca(2+)](i)) in astrocytes on the diameter of small arterioles by using two-photon Ca(2+) uncaging to increase [Ca(2+)](i). Vascular constrictions occurred when Ca(2+) waves evoked by uncaging propagated into the astrocyte endfeet and caused large increases in [Ca(2+)](i). The vasoactive neurotransmitter noradrenaline increased [Ca(2+)](i) in the astrocyte endfeet, the peak of which preceded the onset of arteriole constriction. Depressing increases in astrocyte [Ca(2+)](i) with BAPTA inhibited the vascular constrictions in noradrenaline. We find that constrictions induced in the cerebrovasculature by increased [Ca(2+)](i) in astrocyte endfeet are generated through the phospholipase A(2)-arachidonic acid pathway and 20-hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid production. Vasoconstriction by astrocytes is a previously unknown mechanism for the regulation of CBF.     

The knockout mouse project

Mouse knockout technology provides a powerful means of elucidating gene function in vivo, and a publicly available genome-wide collection of mouse knockouts would be significantly enabling for biomedical discovery. To date, published knockouts exist for only about 10% of mouse genes. Furthermore, many of these are limited in utility because they have not been made or phenotyped in standardized ways, and many are not freely available to researchers. It is time to harness new technologies and efficiencies of production to mount a high-throughput international effort to produce and phenotype knockouts for all mouse genes, and place these resources into the public domain.     

Assessing the impact of population stratification on genetic association studies

Population stratification refers to differences in allele frequencies between cases and controls due to systematic differences in ancestry rather than association of genes with disease. It has been proposed that false positive associations due to stratification can be controlled by genotyping a few dozen unlinked genetic markers. To assess stratification empirically, we analyzed data from 11 case-control and case-cohort association studies. We did not detect statistically significant evidence for stratification but did observe that assessments based on a few dozen markers lack power to rule out moderate levels of stratification that could cause false positive associations in studies designed to detect modest genetic risk factors. After increasing the number of markers and samples in a case-cohort study (the design most immune to stratification), we found that stratification was in fact present. Our results suggest that modest amounts of stratification can exist even in well designed studies.     

Mantle compensation of active metamorphic core complexes at Woodlark rift in Papua New Guinea

In many highly extended rifts on the Earth, tectonic removal of the upper crust exhumes mid-crustal rocks, producing metamorphic core complexes. These structures allow the upper continental crust to accommodate tens of kilometres of extension, but it is not clear how the lower crust and underlying mantle respond. Also, despite removal of the upper crust, such core complexes remain both topographically high and in isostatic equilibrium. Because many core complexes in the western United States are underlain by a flat Moho discontinuity, it has been widely assumed that their elevation is supported by flow in the lower crust or by magmatic underplating. These processes should decouple upper-crust extension from that in the mantle. In contrast, here we present seismic observations of metamorphic core complexes of the western Woodlark rift that show the overall crust to be thinned beneath regions of greatest surface extension. These core complexes are actively being exhumed at a rate of 5-10 km Myr(-1), and the thinning of the underlying crust appears to be compensated by mantle rocks of anomalously low density, as indicated by low seismic velocities. We conclude that, at least in this case, the development of metamorphic core complexes and the accommodation of high extension is not purely a crustal phenomenon, but must involve mantle extension.     

A neural correlate of response bias in monkey caudate nucleus

Primates are equipped with neural circuits in the prefrontal cortex, the parietal cortex and the basal ganglia that predict the availability of reward during the performance of behavioural tasks. It is not known, however, how reward value is incorporated in the control of action. Here we identify neurons in the monkey caudate nucleus that create a spatially selective response bias depending on the expected gain. In behavioural tasks, the monkey had to make a visually guided eye movement in every trial, but was rewarded for a correct response in only half of the trials. Reward availability was predictable on the basis of the spatial position of the visual target. We found that caudate neurons change their discharge rate systematically, even before the appearance of the visual target, and usually fire more when the contralateral position is associated with reward. Strong anticipatory activity of neurons with a contralateral preference is associated with decreased latency for eye movements in the contralateral direction. We conclude that this neuronal mechanism creates an advance bias that favours a spatial response when it is associated with a high reward value.