曲线分类建模方法及其在多地区GDP预测中的应用

传统方法解决大规模时序曲线的预测建模问题,需要对每条曲线逐一建模,这使得建模工作量相当庞大,在实际应用中缺乏可操作性.为此,提出了一种解决此问题的新方法--曲线分类建模方法.该方法先减少曲线的模型种类,再进行曲线分类和分类建模,在尽可能保留原始信息的前提下大大降低了建模的工作量.文中阐述了该方法的原理和计算过程,并应用于多国家和地区GDP曲线的预测案例,说明该方法的实用性和有效性.     

基于改进RPCA的连铸过程数据可靠性研究

连铸过程数据的可靠性是连铸二冷动态控制系统成功应用的前提。针对正常连铸冷却过程慢时变、非稳态和多输入多输出特性,提出了基于改进递归主元分析方法监控连铸二冷配水过程数据的可靠性,这其中包括了用于建模的协方差阵、主元和两种报警控制限的递归更新,并通过小波除噪消除样本数据的噪声和奇异点。现场数据仿真结果表明应用此方法进行连铸过程监控可以明显减少误报的发生。     

Modeling simulation and experiment of micro-Doppler signature of precession

Spatial precession is a special micro-motion of the spinning-directional target, and the micro-Doppler signature of the cone-shaped target with precession is studied. The micro-motion model of precession is built first, and then the micro-Doppler model is developed based on the proposed concept of micro-motion matrix, by which the theoretical formula of micro-Doppler signature of precession is derived. In order to further approach to the actual case, the occlusion effect is firstly considered in micro-Doppler, and the simulated result with occlusion effect is well in accordance with the measured result in microwave anechoic chamber, which suggests that the micro motion model and micro-Doppler model of precession are both valid.     

Coordination-theoretic approach to modelling grid service composition process

A grid service composite process is made up of complex coordinative activities. Developing the appropriate model of grid service coordinative activities is an important foundation for the grid service composition. According to the coordination theory, this paper elaborates the process of the grid service composition by using UML 2.0, and proposes an approach to modelling the grid service composition process based on the coordination theory. This approach helps not only to analyze accurately the task activities and relevant dependencies among task activities, but also to facilitate the adaptability of the grid service orchestration to further realize the connectivity, timeliness, appropriateness and expansibility of the grid service composition.     

装备备件两级闭环供应链库存优化与分析

研究备件两级闭环供应链系统结构与备件运转流程.通过建立单项备件供应可用度模型,构建了两级闭环供应链库存系统优化模型,并运用边际效能分析算法合理配置基层级和基地级备件库存量,实现了在有限购置费用资源约束条件下的系统供应效能最大化,分析得出提高两级维修能力可以改善系统供应效能.     

Adaptive functional link network control of near-space vehicles with dynamical uncertainties

The control law design for a near-space hypersonic vehicle (NHV) is highly challenging due to its inherent nonlinearity, plant uncertainties and sensitivity to disturbances. This paper presents a novel functional link network (FLN) control method for an NHV with dynamical thrust and parameter uncertainties. The approach devises a new partially-feedback-functional-link-network (PFFLN) adaptive law and combines it with the nonlinear generalized predictive control (NGPC) algorithm. The PFFLN is employed for approximating uncertainties in flight. Its weights are online tuned based on Lyapunov stability theorem for the first time. The learning process does not need any offline training phase. Additionally, a robust controller with an adaptive gain is designed to offset the approximation error. Finally, simulation results show a satisfactory performance for the NHV attitude tracking, and also illustrate the controller's robustness.     

基于顾客-销售商互动反馈的库存控制策略仿真

针对服务水平影响顾客潜在需求和销售商库存水平的复杂系统问题,运用服从特定分布的离散随机数模拟市场中受销售商历史服务水平影响的顾客反馈需求,建立以总销售利润最大为目标的销售商库存系统动力学仿真模型模拟顾客-销售商间的互动反馈关系,基于STELLA软件动态模拟服务水平控制策略下库存系统中物流和信息流的传递和反馈。最后的实例仿真结果验证了模型和算法的合理有效性,指出了敏感型销售商与固执型销售商在面对不同顾客需求时的绩效差异,这也表明了提出的算法在现代商品销售中的实用性。

Abstract：

A System Dynamics-based modeling methodology for inventory management simulation was developed to realize the relationships between stochastic customer demand influenced by service level and dealer inventory.In the model,total cost was substituted by total sales profit as the end objective of dealer inventory management decisions.The SD program STELLA was used to simulate the feedback between customer and dealer dynamically.The simulation model was validated by realistic data and several cases were studied.The difference of operating performance between sensitive dealer and inflexible dealer was revealed.     

组织模型与自适应机理分析

通过组织资源的功能矩阵、资源结构矩阵、任务需求矩阵、任务顺序关系矩阵、责任区域分配矩阵、协作交流矩阵、过程信息流矩阵和管理与控制关系的描述建立组织的静态视图,基于组织描述的静态视图探索了组织结构与使命环境一致性测度函数、组织变革的风险与收益测度函数.基于组织模型及其测度方法提出组织自适应行为是组织鲁棒性与适应性的综合与平衡.在组织鲁棒性特征上分析了组织结构鲁棒性与过程鲁棒性机理;在组织适应性特征上分析了组织过程连续与离散条件下组织结构的变迁机理.     

传感器网络中基于最小覆盖重叠的移动部署

为了优化随机部署的传感器网络的覆盖率,提出了基于最小覆盖重叠(MCO,Minimum Coverage Overlap)的分布式移动部署算法.算法执行时,每个节点根据获得的邻居节点位置信息,计算节点覆盖圆周上覆盖重叠的分布情况,并沿着最大程度减小覆盖重叠的方向移动.通过算法的迭代运行,使网络覆盖重叠程度尽量减小,从而最大限度的优化了网络的覆盖率.仿真结果表明,与基于Voronoi图的算法相比,MCO算法在覆盖率、移动效率、移动距离和部署时间等方面具有更高的性能.     

一种MPEG2解码同步算法及其分析

讨论了MPEG2解码系统的时间模型和各种基本流的同步机理 ,详细介绍了MPEG2系统时间时钟的恢复 ,设计出具体的采用锁相环 (PLL)的时钟恢复电路 ,给出了针对节目流 (PS流 )的解码器同步算法的具体实现及其相应电路 ,针对各种失步情况 ,做出了具体的错误掩盖处理。算法及几个主要电路设计适用于各种MPEG2解码器。