On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

Effects of vitamin B12 on plasma melatonin rhythm in humans: increased light sensitivity phase-advances the circadian clock?

Vitamin B12 (methylcobalamin) was administered orally (3 mg/day) to 9 healthy subjects for 4 weeks. Nocturnal melatonin levels after exposure to bright light (ca. 2500 lx) were determined, as well as the levels of plasma melatonin over 24 h. The timing of sleep was also recorded. Vitamin B12 was given blind to the subjects and crossed over with placebo. We found that the 24-h melatonin rhythm was significantly phase-advanced (1.1 h) in the vitamin B12 trial as compared with that in the placebo trial. In addition, the 24-h mean of plasma melatonin level was much lower in the vitamin B12 trial than with the placebo. Furthermore, the nocturnal melatonin levels during bright light exposure were significantly lower in the vitamin B12 trial than with the placebo. On the other hand, vitamin B12 did not affect the timing of sleep. These findings raise the possibility that vitamin B12 phase-advances the human circadian rhythm by increasing the light sensitivity of the circadian clock.     

Growth hormone signal transduction

Growth hormone (GH) promotes animal growth by stimulating bone and cartilage cell proliferation, and influences carbohydrate and lipid metabolism. Some of these effects are brought about indirectly via somatomedin induction in hepatocytes, others by acting directly on the target cells. In either case, GH first binds to specific receptors on cells to trigger a sequence of biochemical events culminating in a biological response. Recently much has been learnt about the molecular structure of GH receptor, its binding to ligand, and the ensuing signal transduction events.     

Seasonality in human sleep.

The timing of sleep and sleep EEG parameters in 10 healthy male subjects were investigated in four seasons under controlled conditions. The phase of nocturnal sleep was delayed about one and a half hours in winter as compared to that in summer. The duration of stage 4 sleep decreased and REM sleep increased significantly in winter compared with summer. The seasonality in the timing of sleep can be explained by photoperiodic time cues, but the changes in sleep EEG parameters are difficult to explain in terms of photoperiod.     

DNA fingerprinting transforms the art of cell authentication.

The increasing diversity of new cell cultures is seriously stretching the capabilities of traditional methods of identification. DNA fingerprinting is set to play an important role in increasing confidence in the authenticity of cultures in research and industry.