Nonparametric density forecast based on time‐ and state‐domain

We propose a new nonparametric density forecast based on time‐ and state‐domain smoothing. We analyze some of its asymptotic properties and provide an empirical illustration. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification and characterization of new functional truncated variants of somatostatin receptor subtype 5 in rodents

Somatostatin and cortistatin exert multiple biological actions through five receptors (sst1-5); however, not all their effects can be explained by activation of sst1-5. Indeed, we recently identified novel truncated but functional human sst5-variants, present in normal and tumoral tissues. In this study, we identified and characterized three novel truncated sst5 variants in mice and one in rats displaying different numbers of transmembrane-domains [TMD; sst5TMD4, sst5TMD2, sst5TMD1 (mouse-variants) and sst5TMD1 (rat-variant)]. These sst5 variants: (1) are functional to mediate ligand-selective-induced variations in [Ca²⁺]_i and cAMP despite being truncated; (2) display preferential intracellular distribution; (3) mostly share full-length sst5 tissue distribution, but exhibit unique differences; (4) are differentially regulated by changes in hormonal/metabolic environment in a tissue- (e.g., central vs. systemic) and ligand-dependent manner. Altogether, our results demonstrate the existence of new truncated sst5-variants with unique ligand-selective signaling properties, which could contribute to further understanding the complex, distinct pathophysiological roles of somatostatin and cortistatin.     

New distribution records for the Querétero dusky rattlesnake Crotalus aquilus (Viperidae), with comments on morphology and habitat use

We provide the 1st documented accounts of the Mexican endemic rattlesnake Crotalus aquilus from the state of México. The new records extend the known distribution of the species into a region where it may be sympatric with the superficially similar C. triseriatus . Because these taxa have previously been subject to some taxonomic confusion, we performed a preliminary morphological comparison using individuals of both species obtained from proximal localities. Our analyses support the supposition that these taxa are morphologically distinct. The new localities for C. aquilus are situated in high valleys that have been extensively modified by human settlement and agriculture.     

Yield curve forecast combinations based on bond portfolio performance

We propose an economically motivated forecast combination strategy in which model weights are related to portfolio returns obtained by a given forecast model. An empirical application based on an optimal mean–variance bond portfolio problem is used to highlight the advantages of the proposed approach with respect to combination methods based on statistical measures of forecast accuracy. We compute average net excess returns, standard deviation, and the Sharpe ratio of bond portfolios obtained with nine alternative yield curve specifications, as well as with 12 different forecast combination strategies. Return‐based forecast combination schemes clearly outperformed approaches based on statistical measures of forecast accuracy in terms of economic criteria. Moreover, return‐based approaches that dynamically select only the model with highest weight each period and discard all other models delivered even better results, evidencing not only the advantages of trimming forecast combinations but also the ability of the proposed approach to detect best‐performing models. To analyze the robustness of our results, different levels of risk aversion and a different dataset are considered.     

Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value?

We used a panel of 29 advanced and emerging market countries to investigate whether the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) fiscal forecasts add value in terms of forecast accuracy and information content, relative to private sector forecasts (from Consensus Economics). We find that: (i) WEO forecasts are not significantly less accurate than Consensus forecasts; (ii) WEO and Consensus forecasts tend to mutually encompass one another; and (iii) each source of forecasts appears to contain some information that is not embedded in the other source.     

Neotropical Lispe (Diptera: Muscidae): notes,redescriptions and key to species

The following species of the fly genus Lispe are redescribed: L. albitarsis (Stein, 1898), L. latana Snyder, 1949, L. levis (Stein, 1911), L. lisarba Snyder, 1949, L. nasoni (Stein, 1898), L. serotina Wulp, 1896, L. setuligera (Stein, 1911) and L. vilis (Stein, 1911). Additionally, a new diagnosis is proposed for L. rufitibialis Macquart, 1843, and in order to fix the identity of the name the lectotype is designated. To facilitate species identification, a pictorial key for the species of Lispe in the Neotropical region and distribution maps are presented, together with the first published illustrations of the male terminalia of L. latana, L. levis and L. lisarba, and the female of L. lisarba.     

Activity patterns and habitat use of pudu deer (Pudu puda) in a mountain forest of south-central Chile

The pudu (Pudu puda) is a small, endemic deer, and the only native ungulate found in Chilean and Argentinean temperate forests. Its ecology, including its double role as an herbivore and as a prey, is poorly known. Therefore, it is pressing to gain a better understanding of the pudu given that its habitat is being transformed rapidly by anthropogenic causes. On a coastal mountain range in south-central Chile, we conducted a habitat use study and examined the activity patterns of the pudu using camera traps. The study area was a large native forest patch, surrounded by commercial plantations which would not constitute a habitat for this deer. Using a sampling effort of 7559 camera days, we found that this deer was largely nocturnal with little activity during daytime. The pudu selected Araucaria forests, and avoided Nothofagus forests. These behaviours suggest that the pudu traded off habitat use patterns and activity time to avoid predation, mainly by puma which is the top predator in the rich local community of carnivores occurring in the latter habitat.     

Similarity between the effects of suprachiasmatic nuclei lesions and of pinealectomy on gonadotropin release in ovariectomized,sulpiride-treated and melatonin-replaced rats

The aim of this study was to compare the effects of pineal indole treatments on LH and FSH release in pinealectomized and suprachiasmatic lesioned and ovariectomized rats rendered hyperprolactinemic by acute sulpiride treatment. pinealectomy or suprachiasmatic nuclei lesions in female rats both decreased plasma LH and FHS at 10, but not at 20 d after surgery, whereas the daily afternoon administration of melatonin effectively restored levels of both gonadotropins to control values. In ovariectomized rats, pinealectomy or suprachiasmatic nuclei lesions were ineffective in counteracting the high plasma levels of LH and FSH. However, sulpiride treatment in both pinealectomized and suprachiasmatic nuclei lesioned and castrated female rats significantly decreased the levels of LH and FSH, an effect which was counteracted by daily afternoon melatonin administration. Other pineal indoles tested, i.e., 5-hydroxy- and 5-methoxytryptophol, were ineffective in regulating gonadotropin levels. The results suggest that the pineal gland, through its hormone melatonin, can modulate gonadotropin secretion by acting on a dopamine mechanism independent of hypothalamic suprachiasmatic areas.