Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Palaeoclimatic distribution models predict Pleistocene refuges for the Neotropical harvestman Geraeocormobius sylvarum (Arachnida: Opiliones: Gonyleptidae)

This paper primarily aims to test a Pleistocene refuge-type scenario, as previously proposed for the gonyleptid Geraeocormobius sylvarum, a semi-deciduous forests dweller in subtropical Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Palaeodistributional models of this species were built using MaxEnt for two Last Glacial Maximum (LGM = 21,000 years ago) simulations – Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) – and for 6000 years ago (?6k = HCO, the Holocene climatic optimum). Both LGM models retrieved a fragmented pattern. For CCSM, range was split into multiple, scattered fragments. MIROC resulted in very few patches, with a decided range reduction because of a strong humidity drop. Models for ?6k recovered a moderate range expansion. No past connection between the core area and the yungas was predicted. Analysis of variables importance showed that two precipitation predictors (bc18, precipitation warmest quarter; bc14, precipitation driest month) and two temperature predictors (bc7, temperature annual range; bc9, mean temperature driest quarter) scored as the most influencing overall. The Limiting Factor analysis recognized them as limiting too, in different parts of the species range. LGM palaeomodels of G. sylvarum are compatible with the refuge hypothesis invoked in previous molecular analyses, to explain the high genetic diversity found in the core area. Additionally, the results reinforced the hypothesis of the recent anthropogenic origin of the yungas disjunct populations.     

Raspailiidae (Porifera: Demospongiae: Axinellida) from the Mexican Pacific Ocean with the description of seven new species

The taxonomy of the family Raspailiidae has always been controversial. The family was first included in the order Poecilosclerida. It was then allocated to the order Axinellida and later moved back to Poecilosclerida. Currently with the development of molecular tools it has been assigned to the order Axinellida. In this contribution we describe 10 species from the Mexican Pacific Ocean. Seven of them are new to science: Raspailia (Parasyringella) rubra sp. nov., Raspailia (Raspaxilla) hymani (Dickinson 1945 Dickinson, MG. 1945. Sponges on the Gulf of California. Allan Hancock Pac Exp, 11(1): 1–251.  [Google Scholar]), Raspailia (Raspaxilla) hyle (de Laubenfels 1930 de Laubenfels, MW. 1930. The sponges of California. (Abstracts of dissertations for the degree of doctor of philosophy). Stanford Univ Bull, 5(98): 24–29.  [Google Scholar]), Aulospongus cerebella (Dickinson 1945 Dickinson, MG. 1945. Sponges on the Gulf of California. Allan Hancock Pac Exp, 11(1): 1–251.  [Google Scholar]), Aulospongus californianus sp. nov., Aulospongus aurantiacus sp. nov., Eurypon patriciae sp. nov., Eurypon tylospinosum sp. nov., Eurypon diversicolor sp. nov. and Eurypon brunus sp. nov. We discuss the genus Eurypon and include a table for all the species described worldwide with some comments about this genus. http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:D462084B-EE9C-4C61-884A-C9DB70003B4A     

Active transport of Ca2+ by an artificial photosynthetic membrane

Transport of calcium ions across membranes and against a thermodynamic gradient is essential to many biological processes, including muscle contraction, the citric acid cycle, glycogen metabolism, release of neurotransmitters, vision, biological signal transduction and immune response. Synthetic systems that transport metal ions across lipid or liquid membranes are well known, and in some cases light has been used to facilitate transport. Typically, a carrier molecule located in a symmetric membrane binds the ion from aqueous solution on one side and releases it on the other. The thermodynamic driving force is provided by an ion concentration difference between the two aqueous solutions, coupling to such a gradient in an auxiliary species, or photomodulation of the carrier by an asymmetric photon flux. Here we report a different approach, in which active transport is driven not by concentration gradients, but by light-induced electron transfer in a photoactive molecule that is asymmetrically disposed across a lipid bilayer. The system comprises a synthetic, light-driven transmembrane Ca2+ pump based on a redox-sensitive, lipophilic Ca2+-binding shuttle molecule whose function is powered by an intramembrane artificial photosynthetic reaction centre. The resulting structure transports calcium ions across the bilayer of a liposome to develop both a calcium ion concentration gradient and a membrane potential, expanding Mitchell's concept of a redox loop mechanism for protons to include divalent cations. Although the quantum yield is relatively low (approximately 1 per cent), the Ca2+ electrochemical potential developed is significant.     

Palaeobiology: Argentinian unhatched pterosaur fossil

Our knowledge of the eggs and embryos of pterosaurs, the Mesozoic flying reptiles, is sparse. Until now, the recent discovery of an ornithocheirid embryo from 121-million-year-old rocks in China constituted the only reliable evidence of an unhatched pterosaur. Here we describe an embryonic fossil of a different pterosaur from the Early Cretaceous lacustrine deposits of Loma del Pterodaustro (the Lagarcito Formation, which is about 100 million years old) in central Argentina. This new fossil provides insight into the eggshell morphology, early growth and nesting environments of pterosaurs.     

Spatial proximity of translocation-prone gene loci in human lymphomas

Cancer cells frequently have disease-specific chromosome rearrangements. It is poorly understood why translocations between chromosomes recur at specific breakpoints in the genome. Here we provide evidence that higher-order spatial genome organization is a contributing factor in the formation of recurrent translocations. We show that MYC, BCL and immunoglobulin loci, which are recurrently translocated in various B-cell lymphomas, are preferentially positioned in close spatial proximity relative to each other in normal B cells. Loci in spatial proximity are non-randomly positioned towards the nuclear interior in normal B cells. This locus proximity is the consequence of higher-order genome structure rather than a property of individual genes. Our results suggest that the formation of specific translocations in human lymphomas, and perhaps other tissues, is determined in part by higher-order spatial organization of the genome.     

An increased estimate of the merger rate of double neutron stars from observations of a highly relativistic system

The merger of close binary systems containing two neutron stars should produce a burst of gravitational waves, as predicted by the theory of general relativity. A reliable estimate of the double-neutron-star merger rate in the Galaxy is crucial in order to predict whether current gravity wave detectors will be successful in detecting such bursts. Present estimates of this rate are rather low, because we know of only a few double-neutron-star binaries with merger times less than the age of the Universe. Here we report the discovery of a 22-ms pulsar, PSR J0737-3039, which is a member of a highly relativistic double-neutron-star binary with an orbital period of 2.4 hours. This system will merge in about 85 Myr, a time much shorter than for any other known neutron-star binary. Together with the relatively low radio luminosity of PSR J0737-3039, this timescale implies an order-of-magnitude increase in the predicted merger rate for double-neutron-star systems in our Galaxy (and in the rest of the Universe).     

Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models

This paper deals with the analysis of the number of tourists travelling to the Canary Islands by means of using different seasonal statistical models. Deterministic and stochastic seasonality is considered. For the latter case, we employ seasonal unit roots and seasonally fractionally integrated models. As a final approach, we also employ a model with possibly different orders of integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. All these models are compared in terms of their forecasting ability in an out‐of‐sample experiment. The results in the paper show that a simple deterministic model with seasonal dummy variables and AR(1) disturbances produce better results than other approaches based on seasonal fractional and integer differentiation over short horizons. However, increasing the time horizon, the results cannot distinguish between the model based on seasonal dummies and another using fractional integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A record of Permian subaqueous vent activity in southeastern Brazil

The remarkable occurrence of more than 4,500 conical siliceous mounds in an area of less than 1.5 square kilometres has been reported in the Paraná basin, near Anhembi, S?o Paulo, in southeastern Brazil. These structures, which are up to two metres high, are thought to have been formed at the margin of a very shallow, broad but waning internal sea, and it was originally suggested that they are stromatolites. Yet their restricted occurrence, unusual abundance and nearly pure siliceous composition have never been satisfactorily explained by this hypothesis. Here we report field and laboratory observations on their shape, construction, composition and mineralogy. On the basis of our data we suggest that the conical mounds are the result of subaqueous Late Permian vent activity in southwestern Gondwana. The present siliceous cone field differs considerably from other Palaeozoic siliceous hot spring deposits, such as those at Rhynie, Scotland, and the Drummond basin, Australia, and therefore represents an unusual occurrence of vent activity.