孕早期睡眠时长与午睡频次对妊娠糖尿病的影响

目的 探讨孕早期睡眠时长和午睡频次对妊娠糖尿病(GDM)的影响.方法 采用病例对照研究设计,选取2018年4月至2019年5月在安徽省妇幼保健院、吉安市妇幼保健院产检的孕妇作为研究对象.通过问卷调查收集研究对象的睡眠和午睡等信息,GDM的诊断来自孕中期常规口服葡萄糖耐量试验结果.结果 共纳入500名研究对象,其中病例组...     

基于时间窗的SVDBN近似推理算法研究

变结构动态贝叶斯网络(SVDBN)在处理非稳态过程的不确定问题具有其独特的优越性。为克服SVDBN推理算法不能实现在线推理的缺陷,在引入SVDBN的时间窗和时间窗宽度概念基础上,阐述了基于时间窗的SVDBN在线近似推理机制,提出了2种在线近似推理算法,即基于时间窗的变结构离散动态贝叶斯网络(SVDDBN)递推推理算法和基于时间窗的SVDDBN快速推理算法。通过仿真实验验证了这2种算法的有效性,并从复杂度、适用范围及更新时间等方面进行了比较。     

基于共识粒子群的全局优化求解方法

针对粒子群优化(PSO, particle swarm optimization)和高效全局优化(EGO, efficient global optimization)两种算法的特点,提出一种共识粒子群和局部代理模型协同的全局黑箱优化算法(CPSO-LSM, consensus particle swarm optimization and local surrogate model)。该算法固定PSO算法周期对粒子进行分群并在粒子达成共识后停止,将每群粒子周围的优质子区域输出作为代理模型的建模区域,通过比较各区域最优值获得高质量最优解甚至全局最优解。不仅避免了PSO冗长的计算过程、提高了建立代理模型的速度和精度还可以避免陷入局部最优。通过对比其他算法在标准测试函数的仿真结果,CPSO-LSM具有较好的收敛速度和求解精度。     

城市疫情传播和复工强度建模及相关性分析

以多源大数据为基础构建模型,分析全国34个典型城市因疫情导致的人口迁徙变化和人力缺口,并通过迁徙基数推算其他各城市的复工强度。仿真结果证明SEIR仓室模型能够较好地模拟此次疫情发展趋势,利用其估计各城市内部新型冠状病毒感染肺炎的基本再生数,结合人力缺口对复工强度进行回顾性的矩阵分析,以总结我国此次抗疫经验。相关性分析阶段对K-means无监督聚类后的城市集群进行回归分析,结果表明对于大部分城市而言,复工强度的大小与其人力缺口、基本再生数以及人均GDP水平有明显的相关关系。     

自适应的无线融断网络路由算法研究

无线融断网络具有长延时、高动态拓扑、链路不稳定等特点,伴随着网络联接缺乏源端到目的端的持续性,为解决网络通信困难的问题,将多头绒泡菌的智能性和自适应性引入,提出一种自适应的无线融断网络路由算法。搭建无线融断网络模型,推导出链路容量的数学表达;设计下一跳节点的选择策略和最佳路由选择策略,实现在融断网络环境下的数据尽力投递。仿真实验表明,该算法能够在网络开销率较低的情况下,达到良好的数据投递,且平均延迟小。     

Credit Scoring Based on the Set-Valued Identification Method

Credit scoring is one of the key problems in financial risk managements. This paper studies the credit scoring problem based on the set-valued identification method, which is used to explain the relation between the individual attribute vectors and classification for the credit worthy and credit worthless lenders. In particular, system parameters are estimated by the set-valued identification algorithm based on a given recognition criteria. In order to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method, practical experiments are conducted for credit card applicants of Australia and credit card holders from Taiwan, respectively. The empirical results show that the set-valued model has a higher prediction accuracy on both small and large numbers of data set compared with logistic regression model. Furthermore, parameters estimated by the set-valued identification method are more stable,which provide a meaningful and logical explanation for extracting factors that influence the borrowers' credit scorings.     

Dynamic Event-Triggered Control for Nonlinear Systems: A Small-Gain Approach

An event-triggered control(ETC) system transmits data packages and updates control inputs only when the predefined criterion is satisfied. In this way, network communication and computing resources are scheduled more reasonably in contrast to the traditional periodic sampling strategy.Small-gain approach proposed in recent literatures is a new modeling method to deal with nonlinear ETC systems. Different from traditional ETC models, stability criteria are proposed in the form of input to state stability(ISS) gain to design the triggering mechanisms. This paper introduces additional dynamic variables in this model and proposes a small-gain based dynamic event-triggered strategy.Sufficient conditions to guarantee the stability of the system are derived with the help of cyclic-smallgain theorem and Zeno behaviors are avoided to ensure the feasibility of this method in practical applications. Numerical simulations are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.     

Nuclear Norm Subspace System Identification and Its Application on a Stochastic Model of Plague

The discrete-time model of plague is deduced by zero-order holder based on the continuoustime model. Due to the existence of stochastic disturbances, the stochastic model is given corresponding to the discrete-time model. The state estimation and noise reduction of the stochastic model are achieved by designing Kalman filter. Nuclear norm minimization is to structure the low-rank matrix approximation instead of the singular value decomposition in the process of subspace system identification. According to the plague data from the World Health Organization, the system matrices and noise intensity of the model are identified. Simulations are carried out to show the higher approximation capability of the proposed method.     

Forecasting stock volatility in the presence of extreme shocks: Short-term and long-term effects

This paper introduces a novel generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity–mixed data sampling–extreme shocks (GARCH-MIDAS-ES) model for stock volatility to examine whether the importance of extreme shocks changes in different time ranges. Based on different combinations of the short- and long-term effects caused by extreme events, we extend the standard GARCH-MIDAS model to characterize the different responses of the stock market for short- and long-term horizons, separately or in combination. The unique timespan of nearly 100 years of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) daily returns allows us to understand the stock market volatility under extreme shocks from a historical perspective. The in-sample empirical results clearly show that the DJIA stock volatility is best fitted to the GARCH-MIDAS-SLES model by including the short- and long-term impacts of extreme shocks for all forecasting horizons. The out-of-sample results and robustness tests emphasize the significance of decomposing the effect of extreme shocks into short- and long-term effects to improve the accuracy of the DJIA volatility forecasts.     

浅谈Web数据库

介绍了通过www访问web数据库的优点以及Web数据库的结构、原理和常用的访问技术,并将它与传统的数据库访问方式和构架模式C/S模式进行了优缺点的分析。