Antarctic accumulation seasonality

The resemblance of the orbitally filtered isotope signal from the past 340 kyr in Antarctic ice cores to Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity has been used to suggest that the northern hemisphere may drive orbital-scale global climate changes. A recent Letter by Laepple et al. suggests that, contrary to this interpretation, this semblance may instead be explained by weighting the orbitally controlled Antarctic seasonal insolation cycle with a static (present-day) estimate of the seasonal cycle of accumulation. We suggest, however, that both time variability in accumulation seasonality and alternative stable seasonality can markedly alter the weighted insolation signal. This indicates that, if the last 340 kyr of Antarctic accumulation has not always looked like the estimate of precipitation and accumulation seasonality made by Laepple et al., this particular accumulation weighting explanation of the Antarctic orbital-scale isotopic signal might not be robust.     

Solutions for a cultivated planet

Increasing population and consumption are placing unprecedented demands on agriculture and natural resources. Today, approximately a billion people are chronically malnourished while our agricultural systems are concurrently degrading land, water, biodiversity and climate on a global scale. To meet the world's future food security and sustainability needs, food production must grow substantially while, at the same time, agriculture's environmental footprint must shrink dramatically. Here we analyse solutions to this dilemma, showing that tremendous progress could be made by halting agricultural expansion, closing 'yield gaps' on underperforming lands, increasing cropping efficiency, shifting diets and reducing waste. Together, these strategies could double food production while greatly reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.     

Initial genome sequencing and analysis of multiple myeloma

Multiple myeloma is an incurable malignancy of plasma cells, and its pathogenesis is poorly understood. Here we report the massively parallel sequencing of 38 tumour genomes and their comparison to matched normal DNAs. Several new and unexpected oncogenic mechanisms were suggested by the pattern of somatic mutation across the data set. These include the mutation of genes involved in protein translation (seen in nearly half of the patients), genes involved in histone methylation, and genes involved in blood coagulation. In addition, a broader than anticipated role of NF-κB signalling was indicated by mutations in 11 members of the NF-κB pathway. Of potential immediate clinical relevance, activating mutations of the kinase BRAF were observed in 4% of patients, suggesting the evaluation of BRAF inhibitors in multiple myeloma clinical trials. These results indicate that cancer genome sequencing of large collections of samples will yield new insights into cancer not anticipated by existing knowledge.     

Modeling and forecasting time series with a general non-normal distribution

We propose a model for time series with a general marginal distribution given by the Johnson family of distributions. We investigate for which Johnson distributions forecasting using the model is likely to be most effective compared to using a linear model. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the reliability of methods for determining which of the three Johnson forms is most appropriate for a given series. Finally, we give model fitting and forecasting results using the modeling procedure on a selection of simulated and real time series.     

Evolutionary origin and development of snake fangs

Many advanced snakes use fangs-specialized teeth associated with a venom gland-to introduce venom into prey or attacker. Various front- and rear-fanged groups are recognized, according to whether their fangs are positioned anterior (for example cobras and vipers) or posterior (for example grass snakes) in the upper jaw. A fundamental controversy in snake evolution is whether or not front and rear fangs share the same evolutionary and developmental origin. Resolving this controversy could identify a major evolutionary transition underlying the massive radiation of advanced snakes, and the associated developmental events. Here we examine this issue by visualizing the tooth-forming epithelium in the upper jaw of 96 snake embryos, covering eight species. We use the sonic hedgehog gene as a marker, and three-dimensionally reconstruct the development in 41 of the embryos. We show that front fangs develop from the posterior end of the upper jaw, and are strikingly similar in morphogenesis to rear fangs. This is consistent with their being homologous. In front-fanged snakes, the anterior part of the upper jaw lacks sonic hedgehog expression, and ontogenetic allometry displaces the fang from its posterior developmental origin to its adult front position-consistent with an ancestral posterior position of the front fang. In rear-fanged snakes, the fangs develop from an independent posterior dental lamina and retain their posterior position. In light of our findings, we put forward a new model for the evolution of snake fangs: a posterior subregion of the tooth-forming epithelium became developmentally uncoupled from the remaining dentition, which allowed the posterior teeth to evolve independently and in close association with the venom gland, becoming highly modified in different lineages. This developmental event could have facilitated the massive radiation of advanced snakes in the Cenozoic era, resulting in the spectacular diversity of snakes seen today.     

Impacts of biodiversity on the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases

Current unprecedented declines in biodiversity reduce the ability of ecological communities to provide many fundamental ecosystem services. Here we evaluate evidence that reduced biodiversity affects the transmission of infectious diseases of humans, other animals and plants. In principle, loss of biodiversity could either increase or decrease disease transmission. However, mounting evidence indicates that biodiversity loss frequently increases disease transmission. In contrast, areas of naturally high biodiversity may serve as a source pool for new pathogens. Overall, despite many remaining questions, current evidence indicates that preserving intact ecosystems and their endemic biodiversity should generally reduce the prevalence of infectious diseases.