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71.
In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
72.
The interleukin 1β (IL-1β) cDNA was cloned from the red seabream (Pagrus major) by homology cloning strategy. A cDNA fragment was amplified by PCR using two degenerated primers, which were designed according to the conserved regions of other known IL-1β sequences, and elongated by 3' ends and 5' ends RACE PCR to get the full length coding sequence of red seabream IL-1β (RS IL-1β). The sequence contained 1252 nucleotides that included a 5' untranslated region (UTR) of 84bp, a 3' UTR of 410 bp and an open reading frame (ORF) of 759 nucleotides which could be translated into a putative peptide of 253 amino acids with molecular weight of 28.6 kD and putative isoelectric point pI of 5.29. The deduced peptide contained two potential N-glycosylation sites and an identifiable IL1 family signature, but lacked the signal peptide and the clear ICE cut site, which were common in other nonmammalian IL-1β genes. The RS IL-1β had the highest homology with piscine IL-1β according to phylogenetic tree analysis. 相似文献
73.
To meet the demands of rapid development of pipeline constructions in China, a complete set of full automatic external welding machine for annular welds of pipeline and welding procedure have been developed thereof. The system has been applied in the “West-East Pipeline Project” and its performance is proven. With this welding machine the welding parameters can be either preset before or adjusted in real time during the welding process, which avoids the blemishes of same type domestic and international products. Thus it is best propitious to in-situ construction conditions and workers‘ technical level in China. In this article the development of mechanical and control systems of this product is introduced and typical welding procedure parameters are provided. 相似文献
74.
僧帽牡蛎碱性磷酸酶功能基团的研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
采用化学修饰法研究僧帽牡蛎碱性磷酸酶活性功能基团性质.酶经0.4mmol·L-1PCMB修饰30min后活力仍然保持不变,提示巯基与酶的活力无关;用二巯基苏糖醇(DTT)对酶进行修饰,当DTT浓度达到2.5mmol·L-1时,酶活力丧失98%,表明硫 硫键与酶活力有密切的关系;以N 溴代琥珀酰亚胺(NBS)修饰酶的色氨酸残基,酶的修饰失活呈一级反应,当NBS浓度达到0.65mmol·L-1时,酶活力丧失100%,并辅以紫外吸收光谱的变化分析,表明色氨酸残基是酶催化活力所必需的;醋酸酐、马来酸酐、甲醛等氨基试剂对酶的修饰作用显示氨基是酶的必需基团. 相似文献
75.
A fast and accurate method based on FTIR is developed for determining the lignin content and its characteristic bands in alkali solutions. The work consisted of two main parts: 1) establishing a predictive model and 2) determination of the accuracy of the model. The model was derived by applying the partial least squares algorithm for multivariate analyses to a set of spectrum data obtained from selected IR absorption regions in the range of 1600 - 900 cm-1. The model was tested with spent liquors obtained from commercial pulp mills.The accuracy of the predictive model is extremely high suitable for commercial applications,particularly for monitoring the dynamic response of modern kraft pulping processes. 相似文献
76.
制备介孔复合环境材料的酸洗刻蚀工艺 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
探索了一种制备介孔复合环境材料的方法--破坏式造孔与有机复合相结合,使最终产品可大量吸附污染水体中的各种污染物并具有一定的杀菌功能.该方法通过酸洗刻蚀,达到了去除原材料中的杂质和刻蚀孔径的目的,所制备的中间产品24h吸湿率为原材料的2倍,染料吸附量为原材料的1.6倍. 相似文献
77.
肖擎钢 《邵阳学院学报(自然科学版)》2004,1(4):121-123
记忆是人类从事一切智力活动的基础,科学的记忆方法,可使学生在学习中达到事半功倍的效果.本文就物理教学中记忆能力的培养方法进行了一些尝试,归纳了一些有助于记忆的方法,以提高学生的学习效果。 相似文献
78.
极低硫钢的精炼脱硫动力学模型 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
通过对影响脱硫反应限制性环节的分析,将持续接触和瞬时接触两种反应模式综合考虑,建立了精炼脱硫动力学模型,并通过实验室"极低硫钢精炼脱硫"实验数据对模型进行验证.结果表明,本模型的预测结果与实验结果比较吻合. 相似文献
79.
80.
ZHANG Huijuan FENG Juan AI Xicheng ZHANG Xingkang YU Zhongheng & ZHANG Jianping State Key Laboratory for Structural Chemistry of Unstable StableSpecies Center of Molecular Science Institute of Chemistry Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China 《科学通报(英文版)》2003,(17)
As the structural analogues of (bacterio)chlorophylls in photosynthetic organisms, porphyrins play an important role in building up artificial photosynthetic systems[13]. In natural photosynthetic pigment-protein complexes,certain amino acid residuals modulate the reactions ofcharge transfer and energy transfer via coordination andother types of interactions with chlorophyll molecules.For instance, in higher-plant photosynthetic reaction cen-ter PSⅡ, the oxidization-reduction system consistin… 相似文献