Geometry and scale in species-area relationships

Arising from F. He & S. P. Hubbell 473, 368-371 (2011). He and Hubbell developed a sampling theory for the species-area relationship (SAR) and the endemics-area relationship (EAR). They argued that the number of extinctions after habitat loss is described by the EAR and that extinction rates in previous studies are overestimates because the EAR is always lower than the SAR. Here we show that their conclusion is not general and depends on the geometry of habitat destruction and the scale of the SAR. We also question their critique of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment estimates, as those estimates are not dependent on the SAR only, although important uncertainties remain due to other methodological issues.     

Serendipity and the Discovery of DNA

This paper presents the manner in which the DNA, the molecule of life, was discovered. Unlike what many people, even biologists, believe, it was Johannes Friedrich Miescher who originally discovered and isolated nuclein, currently known as DNA, in 1869, 75 years before Watson and Crick unveiled its structure. Also, in this paper we show, and above all demonstrate, the serendipity of this major discovery. Like many of his contemporaries, Miescher set out to discover how cells worked by means of studying and analysing their proteins. During this arduous task, he detected an unexpected substance of unpredicted properties. This new substance precipitated when he added acid to the solution and it dissolved again when adding alkali. Unexpectedly and by a mere fluke, Miescher was the first person to obtain a DNA precipitate. The paper then presents the term serendipity and discusses how it has influenced the discovery of other important scientific milestones. Finally, we address the question of whether serendipitous discoveries can be nurtured and what role the computer could play in this process.     

Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations

This article discusses the use of Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting in dynamic term structure models through integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). This method of analytical approximation allows accurate inferences for latent factors, parameters and forecasts in dynamic models with reduced computational cost. In the estimation of dynamic term structure models it also avoids some simplifications in the inference procedures, such as the inefficient two‐step ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. The results obtained in the estimation of the dynamic Nelson–Siegel model indicate that this method performs more accurate out‐of‐sample forecasts compared to the methods of two‐stage estimation by OLS and also Bayesian estimation methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). These analytical approaches also allow efficient calculation of measures of model selection such as generalized cross‐validation and marginal likelihood, which may be computationally prohibitive in MCMC estimations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of pinealectomy and thymectomy on the immune capacity of the rat

Zusammenfassung Kurze Zeit nach Exstirpation des Corpus pineale wird eine abgeschwächte primäre, längere Zeit danach eine verstärkte sekundäre Immunreaktion festgestellt. Nach Thymectomie kommt es zuerst zu einer Hemmung, später zu einer Förderung der Immunreaktion. Corpus pineale und Thymus beeinflussen sich gegenseitig immunologisch.     

Identification of factor XIII-A as a marker of alternative macrophage activation

Factor XIII subunit A of blood coagulation (FXIII-A) is known to be synthesized but not secreted by the monocyte/macrophage cell line. On the basis of its intracellular localization and substrate profile, FXIII-A is thought to be involved in certain intracellular processes. Our present study was designed to monitor the changes in FXIII-A gene expression and protein production in long-term culture of human monocytes during their differentiation into macrophages in the presence of activating agents (interleukin-4, interferon-γ, Mycobacterium bovis BCG) inducing classical and alternative activation pathways. By using quantitative RT-PCR and fluorescent image analysis at the single-cell level we demonstrated that the expression of FXIII-A both at the mRNA as well as at the protein level is inversely regulated during the two activation programmes. Here we conclude that FXIII-A expression is an intracellular marker for alternatively activated macrophages, while its absence in monocyte-derived macrophages indicates their classically activated state.Received 2 June 2005; received after revision 12 July 2005; accepted 22 July 2005