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1.
Nicholas R. Farnum 《Journal of forecasting》1992,11(1):47-56
When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares. 相似文献
2.
The timing of action potentials relative to sensory stimuli can be precise down to milliseconds in the visual system, even though the relevant timescales of natural vision are much slower. The existence of such precision contributes to a fundamental debate over the basis of the neural code and, specifically, what timescales are important for neural computation. Using recordings in the lateral geniculate nucleus, here we demonstrate that the relevant timescale of neuronal spike trains depends on the frequency content of the visual stimulus, and that 'relative', not absolute, precision is maintained both during spatially uniform white-noise visual stimuli and naturalistic movies. Using information-theoretic techniques, we demonstrate a clear role of relative precision, and show that the experimentally observed temporal structure in the neuronal response is necessary to represent accurately the more slowly changing visual world. By establishing a functional role of precision, we link visual neuron function on slow timescales to temporal structure in the response at faster timescales, and uncover a straightforward purpose of fine-timescale features of neuronal spike trains. 相似文献
3.
The genome sequence of the rice blast fungus Magnaporthe grisea 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
Dean RA Talbot NJ Ebbole DJ Farman ML Mitchell TK Orbach MJ Thon M Kulkarni R Xu JR Pan H Read ND Lee YH Carbone I Brown D Oh YY Donofrio N Jeong JS Soanes DM Djonovic S Kolomiets E Rehmeyer C Li W Harding M Kim S Lebrun MH Bohnert H Coughlan S Butler J Calvo S Ma LJ Nicol R Purcell S Nusbaum C Galagan JE Birren BW 《Nature》2005,434(7036):980-986
Magnaporthe grisea is the most destructive pathogen of rice worldwide and the principal model organism for elucidating the molecular basis of fungal disease of plants. Here, we report the draft sequence of the M. grisea genome. Analysis of the gene set provides an insight into the adaptations required by a fungus to cause disease. The genome encodes a large and diverse set of secreted proteins, including those defined by unusual carbohydrate-binding domains. This fungus also possesses an expanded family of G-protein-coupled receptors, several new virulence-associated genes and large suites of enzymes involved in secondary metabolism. Consistent with a role in fungal pathogenesis, the expression of several of these genes is upregulated during the early stages of infection-related development. The M. grisea genome has been subject to invasion and proliferation of active transposable elements, reflecting the clonal nature of this fungus imposed by widespread rice cultivation. 相似文献
4.
Pandey UB Nie Z Batlevi Y McCray BA Ritson GP Nedelsky NB Schwartz SL DiProspero NA Knight MA Schuldiner O Padmanabhan R Hild M Berry DL Garza D Hubbert CC Yao TP Baehrecke EH Taylor JP 《Nature》2007,447(7146):859-863
A prominent feature of late-onset neurodegenerative diseases is accumulation of misfolded protein in vulnerable neurons. When levels of misfolded protein overwhelm degradative pathways, the result is cellular toxicity and neurodegeneration. Cellular mechanisms for degrading misfolded protein include the ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS), the main non-lysosomal degradative pathway for ubiquitinated proteins, and autophagy, a lysosome-mediated degradative pathway. The UPS and autophagy have long been viewed as complementary degradation systems with no point of intersection. This view has been challenged by two observations suggesting an apparent interaction: impairment of the UPS induces autophagy in vitro, and conditional knockout of autophagy in the mouse brain leads to neurodegeneration with ubiquitin-positive pathology. It is not known whether autophagy is strictly a parallel degradation system, or whether it is a compensatory degradation system when the UPS is impaired; furthermore, if there is a compensatory interaction between these systems, the molecular link is not known. Here we show that autophagy acts as a compensatory degradation system when the UPS is impaired in Drosophila melanogaster, and that histone deacetylase 6 (HDAC6), a microtubule-associated deacetylase that interacts with polyubiquitinated proteins, is an essential mechanistic link in this compensatory interaction. We found that compensatory autophagy was induced in response to mutations affecting the proteasome and in response to UPS impairment in a fly model of the neurodegenerative disease spinobulbar muscular atrophy. Autophagy compensated for impaired UPS function in an HDAC6-dependent manner. Furthermore, expression of HDAC6 was sufficient to rescue degeneration associated with UPS dysfunction in vivo in an autophagy-dependent manner. This study suggests that impairment of autophagy (for example, associated with ageing or genetic variation) might predispose to neurodegeneration. Morover, these findings suggest that it may be possible to intervene in neurodegeneration by augmenting HDAC6 to enhance autophagy. 相似文献
5.
Bos KI Schuenemann VJ Golding GB Burbano HA Waglechner N Coombes BK McPhee JB DeWitte SN Meyer M Schmedes S Wood J Earn DJ Herring DA Bauer P Poinar HN Krause J 《Nature》2011,478(7370):506-510
Technological advances in DNA recovery and sequencing have drastically expanded the scope of genetic analyses of ancient specimens to the extent that full genomic investigations are now feasible and are quickly becoming standard. This trend has important implications for infectious disease research because genomic data from ancient microbes may help to elucidate mechanisms of pathogen evolution and adaptation for emerging and re-emerging infections. Here we report a reconstructed ancient genome of Yersinia pestis at 30-fold average coverage from Black Death victims securely dated to episodes of pestilence-associated mortality in London, England, 1348-1350. Genetic architecture and phylogenetic analysis indicate that the ancient organism is ancestral to most extant strains and sits very close to the ancestral node of all Y. pestis commonly associated with human infection. Temporal estimates suggest that the Black Death of 1347-1351 was the main historical event responsible for the introduction and widespread dissemination of the ancestor to all currently circulating Y. pestis strains pathogenic to humans, and further indicates that contemporary Y. pestis epidemics have their origins in the medieval era. Comparisons against modern genomes reveal no unique derived positions in the medieval organism, indicating that the perceived increased virulence of the disease during the Black Death may not have been due to bacterial phenotype. These findings support the notion that factors other than microbial genetics, such as environment, vector dynamics and host susceptibility, should be at the forefront of epidemiological discussions regarding emerging Y. pestis infections. 相似文献
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8.
McConnell NJ Ma CP Gebhardt K Wright SA Murphy JD Lauer TR Graham JR Richstone DO 《Nature》2011,480(7376):215-218
Observational work conducted over the past few decades indicates that all massive galaxies have supermassive black holes at their centres. Although the luminosities and brightness fluctuations of quasars in the early Universe suggest that some were powered by black holes with masses greater than 10 billion solar masses, the remnants of these objects have not been found in the nearby Universe. The giant elliptical galaxy Messier 87 hosts the hitherto most massive known black hole, which has a mass of 6.3 billion solar masses. Here we report that NGC 3842, the brightest galaxy in a cluster at a distance from Earth of 98 megaparsecs, has a central black hole with a mass of 9.7 billion solar masses, and that a black hole of comparable or greater mass is present in NGC 4889, the brightest galaxy in the Coma cluster (at a distance of 103 megaparsecs). These two black holes are significantly more massive than predicted by linearly extrapolating the widely used correlations between black-hole mass and the stellar velocity dispersion or bulge luminosity of the host galaxy. Although these correlations remain useful for predicting black-hole masses in less massive elliptical galaxies, our measurements suggest that different evolutionary processes influence the growth of the largest galaxies and their black holes. 相似文献
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10.
The Precambrian history of our planet is marked by two major events: a pulse of continental crust formation at the end of the Archaean eon and a weak oxygenation of the atmosphere (the Great Oxidation Event) that followed, at 2.45?billion years ago. This oxygenation has been linked to the emergence of oxygenic cyanobacteria and to changes in the compositions of volcanic gases, but not to the composition of erupting lavas--geochemical constraints indicate that the oxidation state of basalts and their mantle sources has remained constant since 3.5?billion years ago. Here we propose that a decrease in the average pressure of volcanic degassing changed the oxidation state of sulphur in volcanic gases, initiating the modern biogeochemical sulphur cycle and triggering atmospheric oxygenation. Using thermodynamic calculations simulating gas-melt equilibria in erupting magmas, we suggest that mostly submarine Archaean volcanoes produced gases with SO(2)/H(2)S?1 and low sulphur content. Emergence of the continents due to a global decrease in sea level and growth of the continental crust in the late Archaean then led to widespread subaerial volcanism, which in turn yielded gases much richer in sulphur and dominated by SO(2). Dissolution of sulphur in sea water and the onset of sulphate reduction processes could then oxidize the atmosphere. 相似文献