On the Predictive Content of Autoregression Residuals: A Semiparametric,Copula‐Based Approach to Time Series Prediction

This paper proposes an adjustment of linear autoregressive conditional mean forecasts that exploits the predictive content of uncorrelated model residuals. The adjustment is motivated by non‐Gaussian characteristics of model residuals, and implemented in a semiparametric fashion by means of conditional moments of simulated bivariate distributions. A pseudo ex ante forecasting comparison is conducted for a set of 494 macroeconomic time series recently collected by Dees et al. (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2007; 22: 1–38). In total, 10,374 time series realizations are contrasted against competing short‐, medium‐ and longer‐term purely autoregressive and adjusted predictors. With regard to all forecast horizons, the adjusted predictions consistently outperform conditionally Gaussian forecasts according to cross‐sectional mean group evaluation of absolute forecast errors and directional accuracy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consumer versus resource control of species diversity and ecosystem functioning

A key question in ecology is which factors control species diversity in a community. Two largely separate groups of ecologists have emphasized the importance of productivity or resource supply, and consumers or physical disturbance, respectively. These variables show unimodal relationships with diversity when manipulated in isolation. Recent multivariate models, however, predict that these factors interact, such that the disturbance diversity relationship depends on productivity, and vice versa. We tested these models in marine food webs, using field manipulations of nutrient resources and consumer pressure on rocky shores of contrasting productivity. Here we show that the effects of consumers and nutrients on diversity consistently depend on each other, and that the direction of their effects and peak diversity shift between sites of low and high productivity. Factorial meta-analysis of published experiments confirms these results across widely varying aquatic communities. Furthermore, our experiments demonstrate that these patterns extend to important ecosystem functions such as carbon storage and nitrogen retention. This suggests that human impacts on nutrient supply and food-web structure have strong and interdependent effects on species diversity and ecosystem functioning, and must therefore be managed together.     

Reductive dehalogenation of chlorinated dioxins by an anaerobic bacterium

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDDs and PCDFs) are among the most notorious environmental pollutants. Some congeners, particularly those with lateral chlorine substitutions at positions 2, 3, 7 and 8, are extremely toxic and carcinogenic to humans. One particularly promising mechanism for the detoxification of PCDDs and PCDFs is microbial reductive dechlorination. So far only a limited number of phylogenetically diverse anaerobic bacteria have been found that couple the reductive dehalogenation of chlorinated compounds--the substitution of a chlorine for a hydrogen atom--to energy conservation and growth in a process called dehalorespiration. Microbial dechlorination of PCDDs occurs in sediments and anaerobic mixed cultures from sediments, but the responsible organisms have not yet been identified or isolated. Here we show the presence of a Dehalococcoides species in four dioxin-dechlorinating enrichment cultures from a freshwater sediment highly contaminated with PCDDs and PCDFs. We also show that the previously described chlorobenzene-dehalorespiring bacterium Dehalococcoides sp. strain CBDB1 (ref. 3) is able to reductively dechlorinate selected dioxin congeners. Reductive dechlorination of 1,2,3,7,8-pentachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (PeCDD) demonstrates that environmentally significant dioxins are attacked by this bacterium.     

Impacts of orbital forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide on Miocene ice-sheet expansion

The processes causing the middle Miocene global cooling, which marked the Earth's final transition into an 'icehouse' climate about 13.9 million years ago (Myr ago), remain enigmatic. Tectonically driven circulation changes and variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been suggested as driving mechanisms, but the lack of adequately preserved sedimentary successions has made rigorous testing of these hypotheses difficult. Here we present high-resolution climate proxy records, covering the period from 14.7 to 12.7 million years ago, from two complete sediment cores from the northwest and southeast subtropical Pacific Ocean. Using new chronologies through the correlation to the latest orbital model, we find relatively constant, low summer insolation over Antarctica coincident with declining atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at the time of Antarctic ice-sheet expansion and global cooling, suggesting a causal link. We surmise that the thermal isolation of Antarctica played a role in providing sustained long-term climatic boundary conditions propitious for ice-sheet formation. Our data document that Antarctic glaciation was rapid, taking place within two obliquity cycles, and coincided with a striking transition from obliquity to eccentricity as the drivers of climatic change.     

有孔虫——大海里的“小巨人”

简单介绍了有孔虫以及影响其丰度的生态和死态因素,并从有孔虫与石油地质学的关系,以及有孔虫在生物地层学和古海洋学的应用等三个方面介绍了有孔虫研究的意义。     

Inferential processes in the construction of scenarios

The process of scenario construction is not yet well understood. Procedures appeal to the ‘disciplined intuition’ of experts. From a psychological perspective, however, generating scenarios represents a most difficult cognitive task. Two cognitive functions involved in this task are discussed: forward inferences and backward inferences. Whereas forward inferences explore the implications of given options and help to identify potential consequences, backward inferences explore the implications of given goals and help identify potential options. The first process leads to an exploratory scenario, the second to an anticipatory scenario. It is argued that the two approaches, applied to the same problem, result in different scenarios, i.e. scenarios that differ in their elements, their structures, their ranges and their ‘holes’. A bi-directional construction method is suggested that balances the drawbacks implied in using one cognitive strategy only (e.g. forward inference) by using complementarily the other strategy (e.g. backward inference). In contrast to other methods proposed in the literature, this method is theoretically derived and can be tested empirically.     

Global trends of whole-genome duplications revealed by the ciliate Paramecium tetraurelia

The duplication of entire genomes has long been recognized as having great potential for evolutionary novelties, but the mechanisms underlying their resolution through gene loss are poorly understood. Here we show that in the unicellular eukaryote Paramecium tetraurelia, a ciliate, most of the nearly 40,000 genes arose through at least three successive whole-genome duplications. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the most recent duplication coincides with an explosion of speciation events that gave rise to the P. aurelia complex of 15 sibling species. We observed that gene loss occurs over a long timescale, not as an initial massive event. Genes from the same metabolic pathway or protein complex have common patterns of gene loss, and highly expressed genes are over-retained after all duplications. The conclusion of this analysis is that many genes are maintained after whole-genome duplication not because of functional innovation but because of gene dosage constraints.     

Model-based testing with UML applied to a roaming algorithm for bluetooth devices

In late 2001, the Object Management Group issued a Request for Proposal to develop a testing profile for UML 2.0. In June 2003, the work on the UML 2.0 Testing Profile was finally adopted by the OMG. Since March 2004, it has become an official standard of the OMG. The UML 2.0 Testing Profile provides support for UML based model-driven testing. This paper introduces a methodology on how to use the testing profile in order to modify and extend an existing UML design model for test issues. The application of the methodology will be explained by applying it to an existing UML Model for a Bluetooth device.