气候变化对中国农业的影响

 在全球气候变化背景下,中国的气温不断增高,近50年中国年平均地表气温增加了1.1℃,明显高于全球;降水变化趋势不明显,年代际波动较大,也存在明显的地区差别;极端天气气候事件不断增多。未来气候变化情景,预计中国北方增温幅度高于南方,青藏高原增温最明显,年降水量增加显著区域为华北、西北及东北地区,长江中下游沿岸及其以南地区有小幅度增加。气候变暖将使粮食作物水稻、玉米和小麦的生育期缩短,产量下降;有利于棉花生产,能提高北方棉花产量和品质;三熟区面积将扩大约22.4%,一熟区面积约缩小23.1%,作物种植结构和作物品种的布局将发生变化;主要农作物病虫害呈加重趋势;对温带和寒带的家畜生长是有利的,对热带和亚热带家畜和牧草生长不利;中国四大海区主要经济鱼种的产量和渔获量有不同程度的降低;气候变暖将使中国各类自然植被发生明显北移,土地荒漠化危害范围加大,土壤肥力下降,并增加农业灌溉的需水量,农业水资源供需矛盾加剧。中国农业应对气候变化包括减缓和适应两个方面,应减缓和适应并重。     

Comprehensive analysis of the impact of climatic changes on Chinese terrestrial net primary productivity

Recent climatic changes have affected terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP). This paper presents an investigation of the impact of climatic changes on Chinese terrestrial vegetation NPP by analyzing 18 years’ (1982 to 1999) climatic data and satellite observations of vegetation activity. Results indicate that climatic changes in China have eased some critical climatic constraint on plant growth. (1) From 1982 to 1999, modeled NPP increased by 1.42%·a-1 in water-limited regions of Northwest China, 1.46%·a-1 in temperature-limited regions of Northeast China and Tibet Plateau, and 0.99%·a-1 in radia- tion-limited regions of South China and East China. (2) NPP increased by 24.2%, i.e. 0.76 petagram of carbon (Pg C) over 18 years in China. Changes in climate (with constant vegetation) directly contrib- uted nearly 11.5% (0.36 Pg C). Changes in vegetation (with constant climate) contributed 12.4% (0.40 Pg C), possibly as a result of climate-vegetation feedbacks, changes in land use, and growth stimula- tion from other mechanisms. (3) Globally, NPP declined during all three major El Ni-o events (1982 to 1983, 1987 to 1988, and 1997 to 1998) between 1982 and 2000, but Chinese vegetation productivity re- sponded differently to them because of the monsoon dynamics. In the first three events (1982 to 1983, 1987 to 1988, and 1992), Chinese vegetation NPP declined, while in the later two events (1993, 1997 to 1998) increasing obviously.     

Sea surface temperature record from the north of the East China Sea since late Holocene

Using the alkenone paleotemperature index U37^k, a high-resolution sea surface temperature （SST） record since 3600 a BP was reconstructed from the mud area in the north of the East China Sea. Combining with the grain size distribution curve of sensitive grain size group, which may reflect the East Asia Winter Monsoon activity, the palaeoenvironmental evolution cycle throughout the late Holocene in the area was obtained. The marine environment evolution during the last 3600 years displays a five-stage trend. （1） Temperature descending period from 0.85 cal. ka BP to present. The maximum temperature decrease amplitude is 2℃. The winter monsoon intensified and ＇Little Ice Age＇ were recorded in this period. （2） Warming period from 1.90 to 0.85 cal. ka BP. The mean temperature increase amplitude is 0.8℃. The Sui-Tang warming period was recorded at about 0.85--1.35 cal. ka BP and a prominent cooling event was recorded at 1.4 cal. ka BP in this period. （3） Temperature descending period from 2.55 to 1.90 cal. ka BP. Temperature cooling amplitude is 0.9℃. This period is coincident with an integrated temperature circle recorded in the Antarctic ice core, with the temperature changes from a slow cooling stage to a rapid warming stage. （4） Temperature comparatively stable with a little ascending period from 3.2 to 2.55 cal. ka BP. Temperature warming amplitude is 0.3℃. This period is coincident with the temperature fluctuant ascending period recorded in Antarctic ice core. （5） Temperature comparatively stable with little descending period from 3.6 to 3.2 cal. ka BP. This period corresponds with the temperature fluctuant cooling period recorded in Antarctic ice core. Basically, those five periods were coincident with the Antarctic ice core record. During the global cooling stage, the SST change in the continental shelf sea can be adjusted simultaneously.     

Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2°C global warming

Based on a 153-year (1948-2100) transient simulation of East Asian climate performed by a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the potential future changes in mean and extreme climates over China in association with a global warming of 2℃ with respect to pre-industrial times are assessed in this study. Results show that annual temperature rises over the whole of China, with a greater magnitude of around 0.6℃ compared to the global mean increase, at the time of a 2℃ global warming. Large-scale surface warming gets stronger towards the high latitudes and on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, while it is similar in magnitude but somewhat different in spatial pattern between seasons. Annual precipitation increases by 5.2%, and seasonal precipitation increases by 4.2%-8.5% with respect to the 1986-2005 climatology. At the large scale, apart from in boreal winter when precipitation increases in northern China but decreases in southern China, annual and seasonal precipitation increases in western and southeastern China but decreases over the rest of the country. Nationwide extreme warm (cold) temperature events increase (decrease). With respect to the 1986-2005 climatology, the country-averaged annual extreme precipitation events R5d, SDII, R95T, and R10 increase by 5.1 mm, 0.28 mm d -1 , 6.6%, and 0.4 d respectively, and CDD decreases by 0.5 d. There is a large spatial variability in R10 and CDD changes.     

Climatic changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms during 1960–2008

The temperature thresholds and timings of the 24 climatic Solar Terms in China are determined from a homogenized dataset of the surface air temperature recorded at 549 meteorological stations for the period 1960?C2008 employing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. Changes in the mean temperature and timing of the climatic solar terms are illustrated. The results show that in terms of the mean situation over China, the number of cold days such as those of Slight Cold and Great Cold has decreased, especially by 56.8% for Great Cold in the last 10 years (1998?C2007) compared with in the 1960s. The number of hot days like those of Great Heat has increased by 81.4% in the last 10 years compared with in the 1960s. The timings of the climatic Solar Terms during the warming period (around spring) in the seasonal cycle have advanced significantly by more than 6 d, especially by 15 d for Rain Water, while those during the cooling period (around autumn) have delayed significantly by 5?C6 d. These characteristics are mainly due to a warming shift of the whole seasonal cycle under global warming. However, the warming shift affects the different Solar Terms to various extents, more prominently in the spring than in the autumn. The warming tendencies for Rain Water, the Beginning of Spring, and the Waking of Insects are the largest, 2.43°C, 2.37°C, and 2.21°C, respectively, for the period 1961?C2007 in China as a whole. Four particular phenology-related climatic Solar Terms, namely the Waking of Insects, Pure Brightness, Grain Full, and Grain in Ear, are found to have advanced almost everywhere. In semi-arid zones in northern China, advances of the timings of these four climatic Solar Terms are significant, 12?C16, 4?C8, 4?C8, and 8?C12 d, respectively, for the period 1961?C2007. These quantitative results provide a scientific base for climate change adaptation, especially in terms of agricultural planning and energy-saving management throughout a year.     

Spatiotemporal vegetation cover variations in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under global climate change

Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis and the related Principal Components （PC） analysis are used to extract valuable vegetation cover derived information from the National Oceanic and Atmos-pheric Administration （NOAA-AVHRR）＇s Leaf Area Index （LAI） satellite images. Results suggest that from 1982 to 2000 global climate change has contributed to an increase in vegetation cover in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The correlation between rainfall and LAI EOF PC1 and PC2 indicates that rainfall is the major climatic factor influencing interannual variations of average vegetation cover throughout the entire Plateau. However, annual mean vegetation cover trends in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are mainly out of phase with air temperature increasing, which is primarily responsible for nonsynchro-nous changes of vegetation cover. In the southern ridge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, recent warming trends contribute to humid weather and favorable conditions for vegetation growth. By contrast, higher temperatures have led to arid conditions and insufficient rainfall in the northern part of the Plateau, leading to drought and other climatic conditions which are not conducive to increased vegetation cover.     

青藏高原：全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器──Ⅲ．青藏高原隆起对气候变化的影响

新生代出现的几次重大气候变化事件与青藏高原形成过程中经历的几次强烈构造运动在发生年代上的良好对应关系表明两者存在紧密的联系．或许正是青藏高原的隆起导致了气候的巨大变化和现代东亚季风的形成及加强．高大的高原对大气系统有两个重要影响，热力作用和动力作用．它们在亚洲冬季形成蒙古高压、夏季形成印度低压，从而导致东亚季风出现．青藏高原越高，其对大气的作用越显著，形成的蒙古高压、印度低压和东亚季风越强大．因此，东亚季风的形成和加强是青藏高原隆起的结果．东亚季风的加强和高原动力作用使西风带波动增加，造成冰期极地冷空气不断南侵、气候波动变大．青藏高原抬升和季风造成的化学风化增强还使大气ＣＯ２含量降低、气候变冷．因此，青藏高原隆起是控制新生代气候变化的重要因素．     

贵州水稻气候资源及其种植区域划分

本文分析了贵州水稻气候资源和影响贵州水稻产量的主要气候问题,并在此基础上用热量和水分为指标,将全省划分成六个不同的水稻种植区,同时予以评述,从而为省内水稻专业化和区域化生产提供了气候依据。     

The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China

To provide scientific support for planning maize production and designing countermeasures against the effects of climate change on the national maize crop, we analyzed the climatic suitability for cultivating maize across China. These analyses were based on annual climate indices at the Chinese national level; these indices influence the geographical distribution of maize cultivation. The annual climate indices, together with geographical information on the current cultivation sites of maize, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, and the ArcGIS spatial analysis technique were used to analyze and predict maize distribution. The results show that the MaxEnt model can be used to study the climatic suitability for maize cultivation. The eight key climatic factors affecting maize cultivation areas were the frost-free period, annual average temperature, ≥0°C accumulated temperature, ≥10°C accumulated temperature continuous days, ≥10°C accumulated temperature, annual precipitation, warmest month average temperature, and humidity index. We classified climatic zones in terms of their suitability for maize cultivation, based on the existence probability determined using the MaxEnt model. Furthermore, climatic thresholds for a potential maize cultivation zone were determined based on the relationship between the dominant climatic factors and the potential maize cultivation area. The results indicated that the importance and thresholds of main climate controls differ for different maize species and maturities, and their specific climatic suitability should be studied further to identify the best cultivation zones. The MaxEnt model is a useful tool to study climatic suitability for maize cultivation.     

Paleotemperature changes over the past 3000 years in eastern Beijing,China:A reconstraction based on Mg/Sr records in a stalagmite

The Mg/Sr ratio in a stalagmite,whic is directly proportinonal to DMg/Ca,the solid-liquid distribution coefficient of Mg,is proposed as a geochemical thermometer to estimate paleotemperature changes,The paleotemperature change in eastern Beijing over the past 3000 years has been reconstructed by using this thermometer in the stalagmite ZFFS-1 from Jingdong Cave,The records can be divided into two periods:3000-2000 aBP,cool and wet ,the air temperature averaging 9.8℃;and 2000aBP-present, hot and dry,the air temperature being 1℃ higher than the mean value (11.7℃) of the past 3000 years ,During 500-200 aBP,the air temperature was about 1.2℃ lower than that of the present,corresponding to the Little Ice Age Europe Like δ^18O and δ^C ,Mg/Sr (or DMg/Ca) reflects and obviously warming trend of the past 200 years,These results are supported by historic recods.     

Regional differences in the timing of recent air warming during the past four decades in China

Global surface temperature has dramatically increased in the past decades. It is critical to evaluate such a change using appropriate approaches. The previous studies for assessment of the change usually used overall trends of temperature series (i.e. slopes of simple linear regression of temperature versus year based on a least-square analysis) for entire study period. Temperature trends, however, differ among different periods, i.e. there are often breakpoints in the temperature series. Therefore, the overall linear trend of a temperature series may conceal some of the temporal characteristics of the temperature change. To precisely characterize the temporal and spatial patterns of air temperature change in China, we analyze the annual mean temperature series between the year of 1961–2004 for 536 meteorological stations across China, using piecewise linear regression approach. We found remarkable breakpoints in the annual mean temperature during the study period across the country. The annual mean temperature started to increase in 1984 at a rate of 0.058°C/a at the country level. The year when warming started appeared to be gradually later from the north to the south: temperature increased since the 1970s in the north (north of 40°N), and did not rise until the 1980s in most areas of the south (south of 40°N), with warming starting in 1983 in the Tibetan Plateau. The trends in annual mean temperatures showed a large spatial heterogeneity across China: a relatively small rising with a rate of 0.025–0.05°C/a in the Sichuan Basin, Central China and South China; the greatest increase in some parts of northwest China (i.e. Xinjiang) with up to a rate of 0.1°C/a; and rising at a rate of >0.05°C/a for most regions of the country. The feedbacks of cold waves and snow may be responsible for such regional differences in the timing and rates of warming in China.     

Uncertainty in crossing time of 2 °C warming threshold over China

The 2 °C warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature (SAT) change over China will reach 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era. To understand the uncertainties, we analyzed the projected SAT in the twenty-first century using 40 state-of-the-art climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The 2 °C threshold-crossing time (TCT) of SAT averaged across China was around 2033 and 2029 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Considering a ±1σ range of intermodel SAT change, the upper and lower bounds of the 2 °C TCT could differ by about 25 years or even more. Uncertainty in the projected SAT and the warming rate around the TCT are the two main factors responsible for the TCT uncertainty. The former is determined by the climate sensitivity represented by the global mean surface temperature response. About 45 % of the intermodel variance of the projected 2 °C TCT for averaged SAT over China can be explained by climate sensitivity across the models, which is contributed mainly by central and southern China. In a climate more sensitive to CO₂ forcing, stronger greenhouse effect, less stratus cloud over the East Asian monsoon region, and less snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau result in increased downward longwave radiation, increased shortwave radiation, and decreased shortwave radiation reflected by the surface, respectively, all of which may advance the TCT.     

Recent temperature increase recorded in an ice core in the source region of Yangtze River

Interests on climate change in the source region of Yangtze River have been raised since it is a region with the greatest warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). A 70-year history of precipitation δ~(18)O has been recovered using an ice core record retrieved in a plat portion of the firn area in the Guoqu Glacier (33°34′37.8″N, 91°10′35.3″E, 5720 m a.s.l.), Mt. Geladaindong (the source region of Yangtze River), in November, 2005. By using a significant positive relationship between ice core δ~(18)O record and summer air temperature (July to September) from the nearby meteorological stations, a history of summer air temperature has been reconstructed for the last 70 years. Summer temperature was relatively low in 1940s and high in 1950s to the middle of 1960s. The lowest temperature occurred in the middle of 1970s. Temperature was low in 1980s and dramatically increased since 1990s, keeping the trend to the begin-ning of the 21st century. The warming rate recorded in the ice core with 0.5℃/10 a since 1970s is much higher that that in the central TP and the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and it becomes 1.1℃/10 a since 1990s which is also higher than these from the central TP and the NH, reflecting an accelerated warm-ing and a more sensitive response to global warming in the high elevation region.     

河南省油茶气候适宜性研究

以信阳、新县、商城3站点为河南省的油茶适生地,对河南省68个站点油茶生育关键期的气候生态因子,应用相似距理论分析其与适生地的相似距离,并结合积温、日照、无霜期等因子确定了油茶在河南省的气候适宜种植区;用土壤pH值与类型等进行修正,得出河南省内油茶种植区域可以向北扩展到351°4′N的结论,为进一步扩大油茶种植面积,提高河南省植物液体能源战略储备能力提供依据.     

Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models

Based on Climatic Research Unit Time Series3.1 temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Center full data reanalysis version 6 precipitation data,the abilities of climate models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to simulate climate changes over arid and semiarid areas were assessed.Simulations of future climate changes under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs)were also examined.The key findings were that most of the models are able to capture the dominant features of the spatiotemporal changes in temperature,especially the geographic distribution,during the past 60 years,both globally as well as over arid and semiarid areas.In addition,the models can reproduce the observed warming trends,but with magnitudes generally less than the observations of around0.1–0.3°C/50a.Compared to temperature,the models perform worse in simulating the annual evolution of observed precipitation,underestimating both the variability and tendency,and there is a huge spread among the models in terms of their simulated precipitation results.The multimodel ensemble mean is overall superior to any individual model in reproducing the observed climate changes.In terms of future climate change,an ongoing warming projected by the multi-model ensemble over arid and semiarid areas can clearly be seen under different RCPs,especially under the high emissions scenario(RCP8.5),which is twice that of the moderate scenario(RCP4.5).Unlike the increasing temperature,precipitation changes vary across areas and are more significant under high-emission RCPs,with more precipitation over wet areas but less precipitation over dry areas.In particular,northern China is projected to be one of the typical areas experiencing significantly increased temperature and precipitation in the future.     

Urbanization and heterogeneous surface warming in eastern China

With the homogeneity-adjusted surface air temperature (SAT) data at 312 stations in eastern China for 1979-2008 and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light data, the spatial heterogeneities of the SAT trends on different scales are detected with a spatial filtering (i.e. moving spatial anomaly) method, and the impact of urbanization in eastern China on surface warming is analyzed. Results show that the urbanization can induce a remarkable summer warming in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) city cluster region and a winter warming in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) city cluster region. The YRD warming in summer primarily results from the significant increasing of maximum temperature, with an estimated urban warming rate at 0.132-0.250℃ per decade, accounting for 36%-68% of the total regional warming. The BTH warming in winter is primarily due to the remarkable increasing of minimum temperature, with an estimated urban warming rate at 0.102-0.214℃ per decade, accounting for 12%-24% of the total regional warming. The temporal-spatial differences of urban warming effect may be attributed to the variation of regional climatic background and the change of anthropogenic heat release.     

Climatic change over the past 8 000 years in Caohai District, Guizhou

Conclusions  

Climatic changes documented by stable isotopes of sedimentary carbonate in Lake Sugan, northeastern Tibetan Plateau of China, since 2 kaBP

Lake Sugan at the northern edge of the Qaidam Basin was selected as the research object. The temporal sequence of sedimentary cores retrieved from Lake Sugan since 2 kaBP was reconstructed using the ^210Pb, AMS 14C and conventional 14C dating methods. Carbon and oxygen isotopes of carbonate in the fine-grained lake sediments were analysed. Combined with the changes of 8180 values of surface water and air temperature observation data in the study area, it might be thought that the δ^18O value of the carbonate indicates effective moisture, and the changes in δ^13C values are related to annual freeze-up duration of the lake and indirectly indicate air temperature changes in winter half year. From the above, the sequence of climatic changes in the region since 2 kaBP was established. The climatic changes experienced five stages： Warm-dry climate during 0-190 AD： cold-dry climate during 190-580 AD; warm-dry climate during 580-1200 AD （MWP）; cold-wet climate during 1200-1880 AD （LIA）; cold-dry climate during 1880-1950 AD： and climate warming since 1950s. The air temperature changes in winter half year reflected by carbon isotope since 2 kaBP are in good agreement with the historical literature records and other geologic records, which shows that the climate changes recorded by the stable isotopes from Lake Sugan since 2 kaBP are of universal significance.     

New discoveries on the effects of desertification on the ground temperature of permafrost and its significance to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The desert and permafrost conditions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are unique.However,the effects of desertification on the ground temperature of permafrost are currently unclear.Recently,understanding this problem has become more urgent because of increasing desertification on the plateau.For this reason,an observational field experiment was undertaken by the authors at Honglianghe on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Thermistor ground temperature probes were used,and synchronized contrasting observations were made in an open area.Observations of the ground temperature of permafrost below sand layers with a range of thicknesses were made from May 2010 to April 2011.The sand layers were found to play a key role in the protection of the underlying permafrost.The ground temperature below a permafrost table overlain by a thick sand layer was lower than that of the average annual temperature for the natural ground surface,and the temperature drop was roughly constant at 0.2°C.During the warmer part of the year (May to September),the maximum temperature drops over the five months were 3.40,3.72,4.85,3.16,and 1.88°C,respectively.The ground temperature near a permafrost table overlain by a thin sand layer was also lower than that of the average annual temperature for the natural ground surface.However,in this case the average of the annual maximum temperature drop was significantly less,0.71°C.The scientific significance of our preliminary conclusions is not only to present an exploration of the interaction between desertification and permafrost,but also to provide new engineering ideas for protecting the permafrost in regions where construction is required on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.     

祁连山北麓出山径流对气候变化的响应

祁连山是甘肃省河西走廊的地表径流发源地,每年平均从其北麓向南部的河西绿洲输送68．86％10^8m^3的径流量,因此,祁连山区北麓出山径流的变化对河地区的社会和经济发展有着举足轻重的作用,根据祁我与河西走廊平原区有关水文气象台站最新的降水、气温和径流观测资料,分析了该区域近50年来气候变化的特征及与全球气候变暖的关系、出山径流对抉变化的响应以及其未来的变化趋势,结果表明,祁连山区与河西走廊平原区近几十年来气温变化总的呈上升趋势,与全球增温存在着某种程度的一致性,但山区气温的变化幅度一般大于走廊平原区,其中又以祁连山中段地区温度升幅为最大,全球增温对河西内陆干旱区气候与出山径流的影响有着明显的地域性差异。受此影响,祁连山北麓东部地区出山径流呈明显的下降趋势;中部地区出山径流的增加趋势不是十分明显;西部出山径流在降水量与气温同时上升的情况下,呈明显的上升趋势。