日月引潮力变化与华北地震的相关分析

通过计算日月引潮力在不同地区的变化,对我国华北地区１９００年以来的大震（震级≥５．５）序列进行日月引潮力的变化与地震活动性关系的分析,探讨日月引潮力作为地震发生的诱触发因素的可能性,研究发现,在地震地质条件比较一致的区域内,结果是非常有益的。     

引潮力触发天气变化的耗散结构机制

<正> 我国的一些学者研究引潮力对天气变化的影响,得出了肯定的结果。近来任振球同志研究三星一线时存在着一系列明显的气象上的效应,用三星一线预报暴雨等取得很好的成果。许多地方用引潮力作长、中、矩期预报都取得成绩,美国人布赖尔和布勒德利对暴雨资料分析,也发现有14.765天和29.530天的周期,说明是引潮力所起的作用。但对于引潮力影响天气变坏的理论,则很不成熟,以致许多学者以为引潮力只是重力的10~(-7),微不足道,而持否定态度,本文试从耗散结构理论,说明引潮力触发天气变化的机制。     

九江地震NCEP异常增温和天体引潮力附加构造应力变化初步研究

利用美国国家环境预测中心NCEP全球再分析资料的温度图像结合天体引潮力附加构造应力,对2005年11月26日江西九江地震进行了分析.分析表明：NCEP温度异常图像可以较好地反映九江地震构造活动时空演变过程;天体引潮力附加构造应力对地应力处于临界状态的活动断层具有明显的诱发作用;预示利用NCEP温度异常图像与天体引潮力附加构造应力结合进行地震短临预测,对大陆少震区也具有良好应用前景.     

成层地球模型对体势力及表载的响应

本文主要研究了成层具自重的弹性地球对日月体潮力及表载的响应。文中首先利用引潮力势、表载及其对应势的共同特征,找出了解型,推导出了较一般的方程及边界条件。接着对最新的PREM地球模型及最新的M_2波潮图资料,用本文所引入的矩阵传播法,计算了可与其他作者之结果比较的一些地表量,即体潮Love数及其组合因子、负荷Love数及由潮载引起的地表重力变化。所得二阶重力潮汐因子之值较之其它理论结果更为接近观测值。用本文所述简单级数求和法得到的M_2波引起的地表重力变化结果表明,用此法估计地表重力变化的幅度能得到较好的结果。最后着重计算了日月引潮力作用下,潮载作用下的地球内部位移场、应力场,并且详细地讨论了它们的特征。     

云南省姚安县地震前天体引潮力和NCEP的异常现象

本文采用天体引潮力对地震诱发作用计算模型和NCEP数据提取异常增温信息,分析2009.7.9发生在我国云南省楚雄彝族自治州姚安县Ms6.0级地震。分析表明：NCEP异常增温图像可以较好的反映地震构造活动时空演变过程,并且天体引潮力对地应力处于临界状态的活动断层具有明显的诱发作用。两者的相互结合分析对于地震的预报具有指导作用。     

引潮力诱发冲击地压的机理研究

通过对冲击地压发生的时间以及地域的统计分析发现,冲击地压发生的时间及地域与引潮力的变化有一定的相关性;为进一步探究此相关性,对引潮力诱发冲击地压的机理进行了研究。通过建立冲击地压发生的力学模型,采用库伦-摩尔准则分析法对引潮力诱发冲击地压的机理进行了研究,分别从5种情况对引潮力诱发冲击地压进行了分析,为冲击地压的预测与防治提供新的思路。     

地震时,空分布原因的引潮力—重力共同作用之探讨

笔者曾提出了引潮力－重力共同作用是驱动板块运动的主要力源假说，在本文中，作者又把引潮力－重力共同作用原理运用到地震时，空分布原因的研究上，提出了地震机理是由内、外的共同作用：即重力与引潮力的结合；岩石圈与水、气圈的相互联系上。本文主要分析了全球浅源大陆地震在空间、优势层位上分布规律之根由；并运用力学分析原理，对中、外学者所研究的发震时刻外固体潮表示响尖的现象，给出了受力岩石在引潮力－重力共同作用下     

天地耦合预测大地震临震三要素的原理、方法和实践

本文是经历40年来以本人为主创建和发展的＂天地耦合预测大地震临震技术＂的总结性科技报告。文中简要介绍了突发性自然灾害天文触发因子的发现过程、＂三星一线＂时引潮力共振异常叠加触发临震的预报判据、大地震发震时刻月亮对震中的引潮力分布与震源机制的一致性,以及天地耦合用于预测临震的实践效果,涉及的有关问题等。最后表示：本人愿意将此项整套科技原理和详细技术方法,无偿（不需专利费）奉献给国家。如有需要的政府部门可与本人取得联系,商谈协助培训有关科技人员等事项。     

唐山大地震对相邻断裂段地震复发的影响

1976年7月28日沿NE向唐山断裂发生的7.8级大地震破裂很快触发了相邻断裂段上的3次强震.其中，被触发的滦县7.1级地震发生在唐山主震破裂NE端部外侧的近SN-NNE向滦县断裂段上.对历史地震资料的详细分析表明：滦县断裂段在1976年之前的400多年中发生过5次中强地震，复发过程表现出“时间可预报”行为，并可根据这种行为 “预测”第6次地震应大致发生在22世纪上半叶.然而，滦县断裂段在1976年唐山主震破裂后约15h即发生了一次7.1级地震，比“预测”的平均时间提前了约160年，强度上也明显超出该段的历史最高.这表明一个断裂段原有的、相对平稳的地震复发行为会因受到相邻断裂段大地震破裂的强烈影响而发生显著改变，并使复发过程呈现局部的非线性.相关的实验结果为此提供了一种物理解释.     

重力坝抗震动力可靠度分析

论述重力坝抗震动力可靠度分析中的几个基本问题，即地震作用下坝可靠度计算，地震发生概率的估计方法以及坝经历一次地震作用的抗震动力可靠性计算等，还以华北某重力坝为例说明其计算方法，结果表明，用抗震动力可靠度判断重力坝可靠性是适宜的，推荐的两种方法都能较正确地估计地震发生概率。     

潮汐应力与云南及邻区的地震

提出了潮汐应力对发震断层的力学模式,描述了附加潮汐应力对发震断层的促滑作用方式,并将该模式应用于云南及邻区的地震,计算了173个地震震源处沿主压应力P轴和主张应力T轴方向的附加潮汐应力分量,分析了这睦量对发震断层的作用方式以及受潮汐应力促滑作用的发震断层类型,结果表明,所研究的云南及邻区发生的173个地震中,64％的地震发震断层受到潮汐应力的促滑作用,其中,受减压型促滑作用的发震断层数比例略大于受增压型促滑作用的发动层数比例;在受到潮汐应力促滑作用的111个发震断层中,走滑型发震断层占67％,倾滑斜滑型发震断层占33％,说明云南及邻区的走滑型地震较易受到潮汐应力的触发作用。     

Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the 2002 Tonga sequences

It is well established that an earthquake in the Earth's crust can trigger subsequent earthquakes, but such triggering has not been documented for deeper earthquakes. Models for shallow fault interactions suggest that static (permanent) stress changes can trigger nearby earthquakes, within a few fault lengths from the causative earthquake, whereas dynamic (transient) stresses carried by seismic waves may trigger earthquakes both nearby and at remote distances. Here we present a detailed analysis of the 19 August 2002 Tonga deep earthquake sequences and show evidence for both static and dynamic triggering. Seven minutes after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred at a depth of 598 km, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake (664 km depth) occurred 300 km away, in a previously aseismic region. We found that nearby aftershocks of the first mainshock are preferentially located in regions where static stresses are predicted to have been enhanced by the mainshock. But the second mainshock and other triggered events are located at larger distances where static stress increases should be negligible, thus suggesting dynamic triggering. The origin times of the triggered events do not correspond to arrival times of the main seismic waves from the mainshocks and the dynamically triggered earthquakes frequently occur in aseismic regions below or adjacent to the seismic zone. We propose that these events are triggered by transient effects in regions near criticality, but where earthquakes have difficulty nucleating without external influences.     

丽江地区7.0级震前地震序列随潮汐作用的变化特征

对丽江地区７．０级地震前３ａ内发生的１６０５个中小震发震时震源处的潮汐体应力进行了计算,按时间进程统计了震源在潮汐体应力的压,张作用下发生的地震放能量的平方根的比值,得到了７．０级大震前丽江地区地震序列在潮汐体应力压张地震比随时间的变化过程。     

基于PREM的地球引力势二阶系数的潮汐摄动

地球引力势系数变化的研究涉及到人造卫星运动跟踪精度的提高和动力学模型的改进．本文利用目前较完善的地球模型ＰＲＥＭ所给出的流变学参数，通过求解弹性地幔运动方程，得到在日月引潮力作用下的形变位移矢量，进而计算了地球引力势二阶系数的潮汐周期摄动．指出在高精度的人造卫星跟踪数据的分析研究中，不能忽略因潮汐形变引起的δＪ２和δＪ２２的影响．     

Seismology: dynamic triggering of earthquakes

After an earthquake, numerous smaller shocks are triggered over distances comparable to the dimensions of the mainshock fault rupture, although they are rare at larger distances. Here we analyse the scaling of dynamic deformations (the stresses and strains associated with seismic waves) with distance from, and magnitude of, their triggering earthquake, and show that they can cause further earthquakes at any distance if their amplitude exceeds several microstrain, regardless of their frequency content. These triggering requirements are remarkably similar to those measured in the laboratory for inducing dynamic elastic nonlinear behaviour, which suggests that the underlying physics is similar.     

活动断层分段研究

地震发生在活动断层上,而断层活动不一定都发震,为进行地震危险性分析,确定未来可能发生地震的地段和强度。因此,把活动断层分成地震破裂段进行研究,分析断层活动在时间上、空间上的不均匀性,了解破裂段特征和分段标志,确定破坏性地震发震的构造条件是极为重要的。     

Great Himalayan earthquakes and the Tibetan plateau

It has been assumed that Himalayan earthquakes are driven by the release of compressional strain accumulating close to the Greater Himalaya. However, elastic models of the Indo-Asian collision using recently imaged subsurface interface geometries suggest that a substantial fraction of the southernmost 500 kilometres of the Tibetan plateau participates in driving great ruptures. We show here that this Tibetan reservoir of elastic strain energy is drained in proportion to Himalayan rupture length, and that the consequent growth of slip and magnitude with rupture area, when compared to data from recent earthquakes, can be used to infer a approximately 500-year renewal time for these events. The elastic models also illuminate two puzzling features of plate boundary seismicity: how great earthquakes can re-rupture regions that have already ruptured in recent smaller earthquakes and how mega-earthquakes with greater than 20 metres slip may occur at millennia-long intervals, driven by residual strain following many centuries of smaller earthquakes.     

Annual modulation of triggered seismicity following the 1992 Landers earthquake in California

The mechanism responsible for the triggering of earthquakes remains one of the least-understood aspects of the earthquake process. The magnitude-7.3 Landers, California earthquake of 28 June 1992 was followed for several weeks by triggered seismic activity over a large area, encompassing much of the western United States. Here we show that this triggered seismicity marked the beginning of a five-year trend, consisting of an elevated microearthquake rate that was modulated by an annual cycle, decaying with time. The annual cycle is mainly associated with several hydrothermal or volcanic regions where short-term triggering was also observed. These data indicate that the Landers earthquake produced long-term physical changes in these areas, and that an environmental source of stress--plausibly barometric pressure--might be responsible for the annual variation.