基于多卫星融合数据的海平面特征分析

利用1993—2008年法国空间局的AVISO多卫星融合高度计资料,采用随机动态、EOF等方法分析全球海平面变化的长期趋势、变化幅度以及季节变化的空间分布特征.结果表明:(a)1993—2008年间太平洋海平面呈西升东降的形态,印度洋绝大部分海区海平面呈上升趋势,大西洋除湾流流域外的其他海区海平面的长期趋势以上升为主;(b)全球海平面变化存在显著的年变化和半年变化等季节信号,无论是半球平均还是洋盆平均,北半球海平面季节变化的振幅明显大于南半球,中纬度海区季节变化的振幅最大;(c)北印度洋海平面季节变化的振幅高于同纬度带的北太平洋和北大西洋;(d)太平洋、印度洋、大西洋三大洋受西边界流、赤道流系等强流影响的海域海平面变化幅度大于周围海域;(e)赤道海域各大洋东、西边界和大洋内区海平面变化不同步,可能受赤道海洋波动的影响较大;(f)厄尔尼诺年,西太平洋暖池和赤道太平洋中部海平面明显降低,赤道东太平洋海域海平面明显升高,赤道印度洋海域东、西边界的海平面变化与其相反.     

热带太平洋海平面年际和年代际变化研究进展

回顾热带太平洋对海平面长期趋势有重要影响的海平面年际和年代际变化的相关研究,总结包括近期提出的中部型厄尔尼诺在内的2种类型厄尔尼诺对热带太平洋海平面年际变化的影响,揭示了热带太平洋海平面年代际变化与信风年代际变化之间的紧密联系。指出赤道信风的增强对近期热带太平洋海平面变化格局的形成有决定性作用,厄尔尼诺强度的减弱对这种格局有贡献,而拉尼娜的影响有待深入研究。研究资料的局限性导致年代际变化的定量研究成果较少,在研究海平面年际和年代际变化时应用的热通量评估模型有待改进。     

冬季北极海冰面积异常与中国气温变化之间的年际关系

利用1957-2001年冬季的北极海冰资料、中国160站气温资料以及NCEP再分析的大气环流资料分析了冬季北极海冰面积异常与中国气温变化之间的年际关系.过去44年来,北极海冰面积总体上具有减小趋势(鄂霍次克海是例外,那里海冰面积有增加趋势),相应地北极涛动趋于增强,我国大部分地区趋于增暖.叠加这种趋势变化之上的是年际变化.在年际时间尺度上,冬季海冰变化的主要空间型表现为格陵兰海和白令海的海冰异常总是和鄂霍次克海、巴伦支海东部、喀拉海(新地岛附近)以及哈得孙湾的海冰异常符号相反,并且与500 hPa高度场上的EU和WP型遥相关对应.当冬季格陵兰海和白令海的海冰异常偏少,而鄂霍次克海、巴伦支海东部、喀拉海(新地岛附近)以及哈得孙湾的海冰异常偏多时,西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压都偏弱,冬季风减弱,东亚西风增强,我国冬季大部分地区温度升高;反之亦然.     

南海海表温度的低频变化及影响因素

利用1950-2010年HadISST1海表温度分析了1950-2010年南海海表温度的季节、年际、年代际变化规律和空间分布,并探讨了太平洋年代际振荡、厄尔尼诺/南方涛动、表面风和EI Nino Modoki对南海海表温度的影响.结果表明:南海海表温度存在显著的季节、年际和年代际变化,1975年左右发生1次由低到高的跃...     

北极科学考察

中国首次北极科学考察 ,自１９９９年７月１日于上海正式启航起 ,至９月９日靠港为止 ,共历时７１天。本次北极科学考察的主要内容是进行“北冰洋的海、气、冰相互作用综合研究”。考察的具体科学目标有３个 :一是探讨北极在全球变化中的作用和对中国气候的影响 ;二是了解北冰洋与北太平洋水团交换对北太平洋环流的变异影响 ;三是了解北冰洋临近海域的生态系统与生物资源对中国渔业发展的影响。共有来自海洋、生物、大气、地质、海冰等近１０个学科的１２４名科学家参加了本次科学考察 ,其中来自大气、海洋、海冰等多学科的科学家在北纬７５…     

近十年我国海平面变化研究进展

系统地回顾了2006—2015年我国在海平面变化规律、机制及影响领域的最新研究进展。分析了全球及区域海平面以及比容海平面在不同时间尺度上的变化规律;探讨了海平面的变化机制,海表热通量、淡水通量、环流、风应力以及Rossby波对不同区域海平面变化的动力及热力影响;采用统计方法和数值模拟等手段,对21世纪海平面变化进行了预测;同时海平面变化会影响海洋的动力过程(如潮波系统的变化),并进而对近海和海岸带环境产生重要影响(如海岸侵蚀、海水入侵和土地盐渍化、河口咸潮入侵、近岸低地淹没、红树林衰退等)。     

青藏高原对北大西洋深水形成影响机制的季节差异

利用耦合地球系统模式(CESM1.0), 通过对比有青藏高原的控制试验和无青藏高原的敏感性试验, 定性地分析青藏高原对不同季节北大西洋深水(NADW)形成的影响机制。研究结果表明, 青藏高原对NADW形成的影响机制因季节而异。移除青藏高原后, NADW形成将会减弱, 冷季(北半球10月—次年3月) NADW形成的显著减弱是由海洋表面净热通量显著增加引起的, 而暖季(4—9月)由于海冰大量融化引起淡水通量显著增加, 导致NADW形成的显著减弱。低分辨率耦合模式中, 青藏高原对NADW形成的这种季节性影响更加显著。不同季节青藏高原对NADW形成的影响机制主要区别在于, 青藏高原地形的存在使得冷季NADW形成区域的海洋表面失热增加, 在暖季造成该区域来自北部海冰的淡水输入减少。     

北极海冰缩减对海洋生物的影响

在全球气候变暖以前,北冰洋上冻结着厚厚的坚冰。那时北冰洋的绝大部分常年被海冰覆盖,95%的海冰是多年冰,只有靠近海岸的一些海域夏季会发生海冰融化。全球气候变暖后的20世纪,北极海冰范围没有明显变化,但海冰厚度缩减了近一半,为后来的海冰大范围消融创造了条件。     

太平洋热、盐比容高度对比容高度的影响

为了理解太平洋区域热、盐比容高度与比容高度之间的相关关系,利用2000—2010年太平洋区域的简单海洋数据集(SODA)计算出热、盐比容高度与比容高度,采用非线性典型相关分析法(NLCCA),对热、盐比容高度与比容高度的相关性进行分析。研究发现:在太平洋区域,热比容高度对比容高度的季节及年际变化信号有显著影响,两者存在较强的线性关系,热比容高度主要影响赤道区域;盐比容高度则主要影响比容高度的长期变化趋势,对短周期的信号影响不显著;盐比容高度与比容高度之间的非线性关系较强,其影响区域主要集中在南太平洋。     

近百年北半球海平面气压分布结构及其对长江中下游梅雨异常的影响

分析了1899—2003年近百年北半球海平面气压的典型空间分布模态，在此基础上将海平面气压和长江中下游梅雨量相对数序列进行年代际和年际尺度分离，分析海平面气压年代际尺度的气候背景和年际尺度变化与梅雨相应尺度之间的相关关系及综合作用. 得到如下结论：（1） 高纬地区与中纬地区的环状模态环流变化是近百年北半球海平面气压典型的主导分布结构，无论是年代际尺度还是年际尺度变化均有十分清晰的表现；（2） 从年代际尺度而言，当北半球海平面气压的高纬地区与中纬地区位相相反的分布结构处在较强（弱）的气候背景时，长江中下游梅雨通常处于偏多（少）时期；海平面气压和梅雨在年际尺度上的关系与年代际尺度的情形相反，即在前期春季位相相反的分布结构较弱的年份，夏季长江中下游梅雨容易偏多，反之亦然；（3） 逐步回归结果也证实，海平面气压的年代际变化和前期春季年际变化对长江中下游梅雨异常起重要作用.     

Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways

Freshening in the Canada basin of the Arctic Ocean began in the 1990s and continued to at least the end of 2008. By then, the Arctic Ocean might have gained four times as much fresh water as comprised the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s, raising the spectre of slowing global ocean circulation. Freshening has been attributed to increased sea ice melting and contributions from runoff, but a leading explanation has been a strengthening of the Beaufort High--a characteristic peak in sea level atmospheric pressure--which tends to accelerate an anticyclonic (clockwise) wind pattern causing convergence of fresh surface water. Limited observations have made this explanation difficult to verify, and observations of increasing freshwater content under a weakened Beaufort High suggest that other factors must be affecting freshwater content. Here we use observations to show that during a time of record reductions in ice extent from 2005 to 2008, the dominant freshwater content changes were an increase in the Canada basin balanced by a decrease in the Eurasian basin. Observations are drawn from satellite data (sea surface height and ocean-bottom pressure) and in situ data. The freshwater changes were due to a cyclonic (anticlockwise) shift in the ocean pathway of Eurasian runoff forced by strengthening of the west-to-east Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characterized by an increased Arctic Oscillation index. Our results confirm that runoff is an important influence on the Arctic Ocean and establish that the spatial and temporal manifestations of the runoff pathways are modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, rather than the strength of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre circulation.     

Late quaternary ice-rafted detritus events in the Chukchi Basin, western Arctic Ocean

The late Quaternary ice rafted detritus (IRD) events in the Chukchi Basin, western Arctic Ocean are indications of the provenance of the coarser detritus and ice export events, and also document the evolutionary histories of Beaufort Gyre and the North American Ice Sheet (NAIS). The sediment of core M03 from the Chukchi Basin was selected to study the regional response to the ice export events and the NAIS variability. The stratigraphic framework of M03 was established by a combination of lithological features and downcore color change cycles, AMS¹⁴C dating with foraminifera abundance and IRD events. The core was also compared with the adjacent core NWR 5 from the Northwind Ridge area. The core extends back to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7. A sedimentary hiatus of 10–20 ka might occur between 16 to 20 cm core depth. Seven IRD events are distinguished from the studied core and are presented during the early MIS 1, MIS 3, MIS 5 and late MIS 7. These IRD are transported by sea ice and icebergs, which were exported to the Beaufort Sea from the M’Clure Strait Ice Stream, Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and brought to the Chukchi Basin by the Beaufort Gyre.     

High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region

Possible future changes in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, and consequent changes in the ice-albedo feedback, represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature rise. Knowledge of the natural variability of sea ice thickness is therefore critical for its representation in global climate models. Numerical simulations suggest that Arctic ice thickness varies primarily on decadal timescales owing to changes in wind and ocean stresses on the ice, but observations have been unable to provide a synoptic view of sea ice thickness, which is required to validate the model results. Here we use an eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65 degrees N to 81.5 degrees N. Our data reveal a high-frequency interannual variability in mean Arctic ice thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt, rather than by changes in circulation. Our results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of Arctic sea ice.     

北极航线通航环境的盲数模型评估

为了研究北极航线通航问题,对北极航线的航行技术环境、人文环境和自然环境进行了深入分析,建立了北极航线通航环境评估指标体系,并在此基础上,利用盲数模型对北极航线通航环境进行了安全风险评估,确定了北极航线通航环境安全等级.研究结果表明,盲数理论用于航线通航环境评价,具有一定的理论可行性和推广应用价值     

Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High

The intensity of the winter Siberian High has significantly negative correlations with Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies from the previous autumn to winter seasons in the Eastern Arctic Ocean and Siberian marginal seas. Our results indicate that autumn-winter Arctic sea ice concentration and concurrent sea surface temperature anomalies are responsible for the winter Siberian High and surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and East Asia. Numerical experiments also support this conclusion, and consistently show that the low sea ice concentration causes negative surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. A mechanism is proposed to explain the association between autumn-winter sea ice concentration and winter Siberian High. Our results also show that September sea ice concentration provides a potential precursor for winter Siberian High that cannot be predicted using only tropical sea surface temperatures. In the last two decades (1990–2009), a strengthening trend of winter Siberian High along with a decline trend in surface air temperature in the mid-high latitudes of the Asian Continent have favored the recent frequent cold winters over East Asia. The reason for these short-term trends in winter Siberian High and surface air temperature are discussed.     

Distribution,ecology, and oxygen and carbon isotope characteristics of modern planktonic foraminifers in the Makarov Basin of the Arctic Ocean

The Arctic region, with magnificent ice cover on the surface of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas, is not only extremely sensitive to but also has strong amplification effects on climate change. Observations during the past decades have documented substantial retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover, a process that is accelerating. Its feedback and impact on the global climate has become an important subject of current climate change research. Calcite tests of planktonic foraminifers are major constituents in pelagic sediments, and they provide valuable materials for the reconstruction of past oceanographic conditions. However, research is still sparse in the Arctic sea area because of limited availability of the materials for investigation. Here, we present a study of modern foraminifers from the plankton tow samples taken in the Makarov Basin of the Arctic Ocean during the fourth Arctic expedition of China. We have analyzed ecological information stored in the modern planktonic foraminifers and in their stable isotope signals, and established a relationship between the distribution of the main taxa and the environment. Our main observations are as follows:(1) in the Makarov Basin, the polar species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma(sinistral coiling) dominates the [150 lm planktonic foraminiferal assemblages.(2) The planktonic foraminifers live mainly in the upper halocline at a water depth of 50–100 m and less in the depth interval of 100–200 m.(3) Temperature change in the halocline can affect the absolute abundance of planktonic foraminifers and their distribution in the water column. The warmer halocline is more favorable to the development of planktonic foraminifers.(4) A lighter d18O value(2.11 %) of N. pachyderma(sin.) is recorded in the depth interval of 100–200 m, which is likely related to the isotopically light brines separated out during sea ice freezing. The relatively heavy d18O value(1.68 %–2.68 %, average 2.27 %) in the depth interval of 50–100 m may be influenced by the low salinity water with the relatively heavy d18O value formed during the sea-ice melting in the surface layer.     

Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years

Arctic sea ice extent is now more than two million square kilometres less than it was in the late twentieth century, with important consequences for the climate, the ocean and traditional lifestyles in the Arctic. Although observations show a more or less continuous decline for the past four or five decades, there are few long-term records with which to assess natural sea ice variability. Until now, the question of whether or not current trends are potentially anomalous has therefore remained unanswerable. Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice, and show that-although extensive uncertainties remain, especially before the sixteenth century-both the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice seem to be unprecedented for the past 1,450 years. Enhanced advection of warm Atlantic water to the Arctic seems to be the main factor driving the decline of sea ice extent on multidecadal timescales, and may result from nonlinear feedbacks between sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These results reinforce the assertion that sea ice is an active component of Arctic climate variability and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming.     

Arctic dipole anomaly and summer rainfall in Northeast China

A dipole structure anomaly in summer Arctic atmospheric variability is identified in this study, which is characterized by the second mode of empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis of summer monthly mean sea level pressure （SLP） north of 70°N, accounting for 12.94% of the variance. The dipole anomaly shows a quasi-barotropic structure with opposite anomalous centers over the Canadian Arctic and the Beaufort Sea and between the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea. The dipole anomaly reflects alternating variations in location of the polar vortex between the western and eastern Arctic regions. The positive phase of the dipole anomaly corresponds to the center of the polar vortex over the western Arctic, leading to an increase in summer mean rainfall in Northeast China. The dipole anomaly has a predominant 6-year periodicity, and shows interdecadal variations in recent decades.