Importance of rain evaporation and continental convection in the tropical water cycle

Atmospheric moisture cycling is an important aspect of the Earth's climate system, yet the processes determining atmospheric humidity are poorly understood. For example, direct evaporation of rain contributes significantly to the heat and moisture budgets of clouds, but few observations of these processes are available. Similarly, the relative contributions to atmospheric moisture over land from local evaporation and humidity from oceanic sources are uncertain. Lighter isotopes of water vapour preferentially evaporate whereas heavier isotopes preferentially condense and the isotopic composition of ocean water is known. Here we use this information combined with global measurements of the isotopic composition of tropospheric water vapour from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) aboard the Aura spacecraft, to investigate aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle that are not well constrained by observations of precipitation or atmospheric vapour content. Our measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour near tropical clouds suggest that rainfall evaporation contributes significantly to lower troposphere humidity, with typically 20% and up to 50% of rainfall evaporating near convective clouds. Over the tropical continents the isotopic signature of tropospheric water vapour differs significantly from that of precipitation, suggesting that convection of vapour from both oceanic sources and evapotranspiration are the dominant moisture sources. Our measurements allow an assessment of the intensity of the present hydrological cycle and will help identify any future changes as they occur.     

Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO(2) measurements, CO(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4?±?0.8 to 5.0?±?0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions.     

Evidence for a link between global lightning activity and upper tropospheric water vapour

Tropospheric water vapour is a key element of the Earth's climate, which has direct effects as a greenhouse gas, as well as indirect effects through interaction with clouds, aerosols and tropospheric chemistry. Small changes in upper-tropospheric water vapour have a much larger impact on the greenhouse effect than small changes in water vapour in the lower atmosphere, but whether this impact is a positive or negative feedback remains uncertain. The main challenge in addressing this question is the difficulty in monitoring upper-tropospheric water vapour globally over long timescales. Here I show that upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and global lightning activity are closely linked, suggesting that upper-tropospheric water-vapour changes can be inferred from records of global lightning activity, readily obtained from observations at a single location on the Earth's surface. This correlation reflects the fact that continental deep-convective thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapour into the upper troposphere and thereby dominate the variations of global upper-tropospheric water vapour while producing most of the lightning on Earth. As global lightning induces Schumann resonances, an electromagnetic phenomenon in the atmosphere that can be observed easily at low cost, monitoring of these resonances might provide a convenient method for tracking upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and hence contribute to a better understanding of the processes affecting climate change.     

Hotspots of the sensitivity of the land surface hydrological cycle to climate change

Due to the shortage of the global observational data of the terrestrial hydrological variables,the understanding of how surface hydrological processes respond to climate change is still limited.In this study,the Community Land Model(CLM4.0)with high resolution atmospheric forcing data is selected to simulate the global surface hydrological quantities during the period 1948–2006and to investigate the spatial features of these quantities in response to climate change at the regional scales.The sensitivities of evaporation and runoff with respect to the dominant climate change factors(e.g.temperature and precipitation)derived from the concept of climate elasticity are introduced.Results show that evaporation has a declining trend with a rate of 0.7 mm per decade,while runoff shows a weak increasing trend of 0.15 mm per decade over the global land surface.Analyses of the hotspots in the hydrological cycle indicate that the spatial distributions for evaporation and runoff are similar over many areas in central Asia,Australia,and southern South America,but differ largely in high latitudes.It is also found that,the evaporation hotspots in arid regions are mainly associated with the changes in precipitation.Our sensitive analysis suggests that the hydrological quantities show a rather complicated spatial dependency of response of the water cycle to the different climate factors(temperature and precipitation).     

大兴安岭漠河-塔河地区土地利用及生态状况动态分析

土地利用类型的变化反映了自然及人类活动的改造,同时会影响所处地区甚至全球的生态条件。漠河-塔河地区位于大兴安岭北部,森林、湿地资源丰富,为掌握区内生态状况及变化,利用Landsat系列遥感数据,分别对研究区1985年、1998年、2008年和2018年土地利用类型进行提取,分析各土地利用相互转化特征及影响因素,计算不同年份的生态环境状况指数。结果表明：研究区土地利用以林地、湿地和灌木为主,植被覆盖率约为98%,土地利用增加最明显的为耕地、城乡用地、其他土地,减少最明显的为草地、灌丛沼泽,自然环境和耕地开发对研究区土地利用变化起主导作用,温度和蒸散发的升高对土地利用变化现状具有促进作用。1985—1998年、1998—2008年生态环境状况略微变好,2008—2018年总体生态环境状况显著变好,由良好提升为优秀,各项生态保护政策在维护生态安全、促进当地绿色经济发展中起到了重要作用。     

近50年渭河关中地区地表径流变化及其归因分析?

采用流域水文过程模拟和水文气象统计学相结合的方法,归因分析了近50a来渭河关中地区地表径流的变化.通过对关中地区1958—2008年水文气象要素进行趋势检验分析,发现近50a来该区域地表径流量呈现显著下降趋势,而降雨量和潜在蒸散发量没有明显的变化,说明径流的变化主要受人类活动的影响,并用Mann-Kendall法检验出1990年为径流过程的突变点.基于此,构建SIMHYD月降雨—径流水文模型,以1958—1989年为模拟预处理期,1990—2008年为模拟检测期,通过模拟分析获得气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的归因分析结果.同时采用改进的气候弹性系数法对上述径流变化归因分析进行验证,也得到了近似的结果.结果表明,气候变化对径流减少的影响程度为18%~22%,而人类活动为78%~82%.     

Influence of mean climate change on climate variability from a 155-year tropical Pacific coral record

Today, the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is the primary driver of interannual variability in global climate, but its long-term behaviour is poorly understood. Instrumental observations reveal a shift in 1976 towards warmer and wetter conditions in the tropical Pacific, with widespread climatic and ecological consequences. This shift, unique over the past century, has prompted debate over the influence of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on ENSO variability. Here we present a 155-year ENSO reconstruction from a central tropical Pacific coral that provides new evidence for long-term changes in the regional mean climate and its variability. A gradual transition in the early twentieth century and the abrupt change in 1976, both towards warmer and wetter conditions, co-occur with changes in variability. In the mid-late nineteenth century, cooler and drier background conditions coincided with prominent decadal variability; in the early twentieth century, shorter-period (approximately 2.9 years) variability intensified. After 1920, variability weakens and becomes focused at interannual timescales; with the shift in 1976, variability with a period of about 4 years becomes prominent. Our results suggest that variability in the tropical Pacific is linked to the region's mean climate, and that changes in both have occurred during periods of natural as well as anthropogenic climate forcing.     

Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide

In addition to influencing climatic conditions directly through radiative forcing, increasing carbon dioxide concentration influences the climate system through its effects on plant physiology. Plant stomata generally open less widely under increased carbon dioxide concentration, which reduces transpiration and thus leaves more water at the land surface. This driver of change in the climate system, which we term 'physiological forcing', has been detected in observational records of increasing average continental runoff over the twentieth century. Here we use an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model that includes a vegetation component to assess the contribution of physiological forcing to future changes in continental runoff, in the context of uncertainties in future precipitation. We find that the physiological effect of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration increases simulated global mean runoff by 6 per cent relative to pre-industrial levels; an increase that is comparable to that simulated in response to radiatively forced climate change (11 +/- 6 per cent). Assessments of the effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations on the hydrological cycle that only consider radiative forcing will therefore tend to underestimate future increases in runoff and overestimate decreases. This suggests that freshwater resources may be less limited than previously assumed under scenarios of future global warming, although there is still an increased risk of drought. Moreover, our results highlight that the practice of assessing the climate-forcing potential of all greenhouse gases in terms of their radiative forcing potential relative to carbon dioxide does not accurately reflect the relative effects of different greenhouse gases on freshwater resources.     

基于Landsat 5 TM的祁连山区蒸散发遥感估算——以青海祁连县为例

蒸散发的估算在区域能量平衡和水分循环研究中具有重要意义.本研究利用Landsat 5TM数据和能量平衡模型相结合,通过遥感数据获取各参量,对祁连山区的日蒸散发进行估算,研究表明估算值与实测值基本一致,相对误差为4.23%,基本上满足了该区域蒸散发研究的精度要求.通过对蒸散结果的分析发现,该区域的日蒸散发空间分布受气候特征、地形因素、土壤供水条件及土地利用类型的影响比较严重,其分布趋势主要在空间上表现出随海拔的降低而降低,阳坡蒸散量大于阴坡,在土地利用类型上呈现按照"林地沼泽地水域草地耕地城乡工矿居民用地"的类型而降低的规律,而永久性冰川雪地以及裸土裸岩石砾地的蒸散发则随冰川面积的缩小而减小.     

植被—土壤—水文相互作用及生态水文模型参数的动态表述

植被与土壤、水文之间存在复杂的相互作用,是生态水文模型和植被变化生态水文效应评估研究的重点.虽然陆面植被指数等动态变化对流域截留、蒸散发等水量、能量平衡项影响已有较多研究,但植被地下生物量变化如何改变土壤结构和水力特性,进而影响入渗和径流等水文过程研究相对缺乏.本文综述国内外植被变化对土壤、水文动态变化特征研究成果基础上,分析植被变化水文响应的阈值效应和尺度效应、植被变化下的土壤水力参数时变特征定量表述及其与植被、土壤类型以及气候条件的关系.在生态水文模型中,考虑植被因子对土壤水力参数影响的动态表达可以提高植被变化下水文效应模拟和预测的可靠性.     

土壤-植被-大气连续体中蒸散过程的数值模拟

利用-维土壤-植被-大气耦合数值模式,研究了我国西北(37.5N, 105E)干旱半干旱地区夏季不同植被覆盖度近地面层的水分蒸散过程。模式较好地再现了蒸散过程三阶段的变化趋势特征。模式还揭示了蒸散过程中,下垫面热量平衡分量间的相互转换过程,并由实测资料对模拟结果进行了检验。     

黄河上游径流量对气候变化的响应和预测模型

全球气候变化下的黄河上游径流量变化及其预测是流域生态水文研究的热点之一。论文利用2008-2020年流域内48个气象站的监测数据和头道拐水文站径流数据,系统分析了黄河上游流域径流量与气候要素变化的关系,并建立径流量预测模型。结果表明,单一月份的月平均气温、月降水量和月蒸散发量多未表现出显著的年际变化趋势,但年平均气温和年降水量显著上升,而年蒸散发量也有上升趋势但统计不显著;多数单一月份的月径流量和年径流量均在年际上呈显著增加趋势。在月平均气温、月降水量、月蒸散发量均与月径流量显著相关的基础上,基于气候要素建立的黄河上游流域径流量预测模型具有良好的预测效果。     

Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas

Glaciers are among the best indicators of terrestrial climate variability, contribute importantly to water resources in many mountainous regions and are a major contributor to global sea level rise. In the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region (HKKH), a paucity of appropriate glacier data has prevented a comprehensive assessment of current regional mass balance. There is, however, indirect evidence of a complex pattern of glacial responses in reaction to heterogeneous climate change signals. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and a global elevation model to show widespread glacier wastage in the eastern, central and south-western parts of the HKKH during 2003-08. Maximal regional thinning rates were 0.66?±?0.09 metres per year in the Jammu-Kashmir region. Conversely, in the Karakoram, glaciers thinned only slightly by a few centimetres per year. Contrary to expectations, regionally averaged thinning rates under debris-mantled ice were similar to those of clean ice despite insulation by debris covers. The 2003-08 specific mass balance for our entire HKKH study region was -0.21?±?0.05?m?yr(-1) water equivalent, significantly less negative than the estimated global average for glaciers and ice caps. This difference is mainly an effect of the balanced glacier mass budget in the Karakoram. The HKKH sea level contribution amounts to one per cent of the present-day sea level rise. Our 2003-08 mass budget of -12.8?±?3.5 gigatonnes (Gt) per year is more negative than recent satellite-gravimetry-based estimates of -5?±?3?Gt?yr(-1) over 2003-10 (ref. 12). For the mountain catchments of the Indus and Ganges basins, the glacier imbalance contributed about 3.5% and about 2.0%, respectively, to the annual average river discharge, and up to 10% for the Upper Indus basin.     

Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate

Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, in particular an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood risk. But the detection of anthropogenically forced changes in flooding is difficult because of the substantial natural variability; the dependence of streamflow trends on flow regime further complicates the issue. Here we investigate the changes in risk of great floods--that is, floods with discharges exceeding 100-year levels from basins larger than 200,000 km(2)--using both streamflow measurements and numerical simulations of the anthropogenic climate change associated with greenhouse gases and direct radiative effects of sulphate aerosols. We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue.     

基于SWIM模型模拟气候变化对青海湖布哈河流域水文过程的影响

本文基于青藏高原地区气候变化的预估结果,利用SWIM 模型模拟了该地区最具有代表性的布哈河流域在未来3个时期(2016-2035年、2046-2065年和2081-2100年)径流深、实际蒸散量和深层渗漏量的变化及其时空格局.结果表明:1)模型对布哈河流域径流的模拟结果较为理想,表明SWIM 模型在高寒地区有较强的适用性;2)随着降水的增加和气温的持续上升,流域的径流深和实际蒸散量在2100年前会持续增加,而深层渗漏量则先下降后上升;3)气候变化对流域水文过程的影响有季节差异性,其对深层渗漏量的影响集中于7、8月,而对径流深和实际蒸散量的影响主要在6-8月期间;4)流域各水文过程及其在不同时期的变化呈现一定的空间差异性.      

全球变化研究的新内容与方向

随着对全球变化研究的深入，全球变化已不仅仅局限在全球气候变化上，内容已扩展到全球人口增长、大气成分变化、养分生物地球化学循环变化，土地利用和覆盖的改变及生物多样性的丧失等方面，未来全球变化研究将重点放在全球变化对生物多样性的影响，生态系统中CO2浓度升高，营养、温度、水分变化对生态过程的影响，景观水平上的研究以及人类决定的反馈生态学等方面。     

Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific warm pool hydrology since the Last Glacial Maximum

Models and palaeoclimate data suggest that the tropical Pacific climate system plays a key part in the mechanisms underlying orbital-scale and abrupt climate change. Atmospheric convection over the western tropical Pacific is a major source of heat and moisture to extratropical regions, and may therefore influence the global climate response to a variety of forcing factors. The response of tropical Pacific convection to changes in global climate boundary conditions, abrupt climate changes and radiative forcing remains uncertain, however. Here we present three absolutely dated oxygen isotope records from stalagmites in northern Borneo that reflect changes in west Pacific warm pool hydrology over the past 27,000 years. Our results suggest that convection over the western tropical Pacific weakened 18,000-20,000 years ago, as tropical Pacific and Antarctic temperatures began to rise during the early stages of deglaciation. Convective activity, as inferred from oxygen isotopes, reached a minimum during Heinrich event 1 (ref. 10), when the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was weak, pointing to feedbacks between the strength of the overturning circulation and tropical Pacific hydrology. There is no evidence of the Younger Dryas event in the stalagmite records, however, suggesting that different mechanisms operated during these two abrupt deglacial climate events. During the Holocene epoch, convective activity appears to track changes in spring and autumn insolation, highlighting the sensitivity of tropical Pacific convection to external radiative forcing. Together, these findings demonstrate that the tropical Pacific hydrological cycle is sensitive to high-latitude climate processes in both hemispheres, as well as to external radiative forcing, and that it may have a central role in abrupt climate change events.     

Interannual variability in the oxygen isotopes of atmospheric CO2 driven by El Niño

The stable isotope ratios of atmospheric CO(2) ((18)O/(16)O and (13)C/(12)C) have been monitored since 1977 to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle, because biosphere-atmosphere exchange fluxes affect the different atomic masses in a measurable way. Interpreting the (18)O/(16)O variability has proved difficult, however, because oxygen isotopes in CO(2) are influenced by both the carbon cycle and the water cycle. Previous attention focused on the decreasing (18)O/(16)O ratio in the 1990s, observed by the global Cooperative Air Sampling Network of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. This decrease was attributed variously to a number of processes including an increase in Northern Hemisphere soil respiration; a global increase in C(4) crops at the expense of C(3) forests; and environmental conditions, such as atmospheric turbulence and solar radiation, that affect CO(2) exchange between leaves and the atmosphere. Here we present 30 years' worth of data on (18)O/(16)O in CO(2) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography global flask network and show that the interannual variability is strongly related to the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation. We suggest that the redistribution of moisture and rainfall in the tropics during an El Ni?o increases the (18)O/(16)O ratio of precipitation and plant water, and that this signal is then passed on to atmospheric CO(2) by biosphere-atmosphere gas exchange. We show how the decay time of the El Ni?o anomaly in this data set can be useful in constraining global gross primary production. Our analysis shows a rapid recovery from El Ni?o events, implying a shorter cycling time of CO(2) with respect to the terrestrial biosphere and oceans than previously estimated. Our analysis suggests that current estimates of global gross primary production, of 120 petagrams of carbon per year, may be too low, and that a best guess of 150-175 petagrams of carbon per year better reflects the observed rapid cycling of CO(2). Although still tentative, such a revision would present a new benchmark by which to evaluate global biospheric carbon cycling models.     

基于多源遥感的森林变化对区域温度影响的监测方法研究进展

人类活动通过改变土地覆被促成森林面积变化,推动碳收支和地表能量平衡发生相应变化,进而影响全球和区域尺度的气候。现有森林变化对区域温度的影响研究主要集中在有限精度的森林变化数据与温度数据结合的简单统计方法,但高可靠度的森林变化及其生物物理过程对区域温度的影响研究表明,准确、全面地理解森林与气候之间的生物物理相互作用机制,能为森林生态系统的全面评估提供科学支撑。笔者综合分析了基于多源遥感的森林变化结合其生物物理过程对区域温度影响的多种监测方法,结果发现:①多源中高分辨率森林变化数据的有限可用性一直阻碍着对温度变化影响的精准量化;②集成遥感观测数据的多种方法在量化森林变化的生物物理机制对于区域温度变化影响的评价不一致。因此,森林变化的生物物理机制及其温度效应是一个值得深入分析的问题。未来需要充分发挥多种数据源合理集成后用于解释森林响应气候效应方面的交叉优势,理解生物物理机制与生物化学机制共同作用下的森林变化、碳循环与气候的交互关系,并通过森林生态系统的合理经营与管理实现其气候效益最大化。     

Magnitude and timing of temperature change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool during deglaciation

Ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific region have a strong influence on global heat and water vapour transport and thus constitute an important component of the climate system. Changes in sea surface temperatures and convection in the tropical Indo-Pacific region are thought to be responsible for the interannual to decadal climate variability observed in extra-tropical regions, but the role of the tropics in climate changes on millennial and orbital timescales is less clear. Here we analyse oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios of foraminiferal shells from the Makassar strait in the heart of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, to obtain synchronous estimates of sea surface temperatures and ice volume. We find that sea surface temperatures increased by 3.5-4.0 degrees C during the last two glacial-interglacial transitions, synchronous with the global increase in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic warming, but the temperature increase occurred 2,000-3,000 years before the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets melted. Our observations suggest that the tropical Pacific region plays an important role in driving glacial-interglacial cycles, possibly through a system similar to how El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation regulates the poleward flux of heat and water vapour.