复杂性研究与系统思维方式

复杂性研究是人类认识史、科学史上的重大转折点，提出复杂性定义与特征及其研究的主要方向。对复杂性研究必须摒弃传统的思维方式，指出系统思维方式是适应复杂性探索的新思维方式。     

我国银行体系的系统性关联度分析:基于不对称CoVaR

根据系统性关联度的定义,使用不对称CoVaR方法,对我国单个银行与银行体系之间的系统性关联度和任意两个银行间的系统性关联度进行了测算.研究结果表明,我国银行体系的系统性关联度存在不对称性,使用不对称CoVaR方法重新估算我国银行体系的系统性关联度能为我国系统重要性银行的甄别和银行间系统性风险溢出的评估提供依据.进一步地,探讨出上述两种系统性关联度的主要影响因素为银行自身的特征变量,如贷款总额,股本,留存收益等.基于此,为我国银行业监管者提升银行风险监管水平和银行管理者制定准确的风险控制体系提供有益帮助.     

基于ACP方法的电子商务系统复杂性研究

运用复杂系统研究中的“人工系统＋计算实验＋平行执行（ACP）”方法,结合新兴电子商务的特点,提出了基于ACP方法的电子商务复杂性研究方法论。讨论了其中的代理建模、实验、决策和量化计算4个主要问题;设计了与真实电子商务系统平行执行的电子商务社会实验平台,为复杂性研究结果的评估、验证和修正提供了实验环境。该方法论与实验平台的研究,有助于加快新兴电子商务复杂性研究的步伐、提升企业的国际竞争能力。     

A Systemic Approach to Fire Prevention Support

Fire prevention initiatives are increasingly being viewed as an effective approach to fire and rescue service improvement. In this paper we examine a research project aimed at investigating the use of a novel multi-paradigm systemic approach to fire prevention support involving the use of interpretivist soft systems approaches combined with experimental scientific statistical modelling. The research project is based upon a 2?year case study in Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service in the UK. The soft systems approach was beneficial for understanding the nature of fire prevention, and the causal factors associated with unintentional dwelling fires. When combined with a statistical modelling approach and a hard systems approach to developing a geographical information system, the result was a useful tool for analysis of unintentional dwelling fires that assisted in targeting fire prevention activities to those most at risk.     

我国能源经济复杂系统仿真研究

针对传统“数量能源经济理论”局限性，以“结构牵动论”代替传统数量能源观的“速度牵动论”，提出以产业结构和能源结构的双重优化来推动国民经济发展；同时又用“效益配置理论”代替传统能源经济的“热平平衡论”，将决策的能源总量，用泛函极值协调配置理论，以系统经济效益最优为目标进行了优化配置；人机结合的专家决策研讨厅利用可操作的杠杆调节以及调节后的信息反馈，可以实现能源经济复杂系统发展的社会目标。     

A Simulation Approach to the Stable Marriages Problem

１　ＴｈｅＳｔａｂｌｅＭａｒｒｉａｇｅＰｒｏｂｌｅｍＴｈｅｓｔａｂｌｅｍａｒｒｉａｇｅｐｒｏｂｌｅｍ（ＳＭＰ）ｈａｓｂｅｅｎｗｅｌｌｄｅｓｃｒｉｂｅｄｉｎｔｈｅｌｉｔｅｒａｔｕｒｅ．ＩｔｗａｓｏｒｉｇｉｎａｌｌｙｐｏｓｅｄｂｙＧａｌｅａｎｄＳｈａｐｌｅｙ［１］ａｎｄａｆｔｅｒｗａｒｄｓｈａｓｂｅｅｎｅｘｔｅｎｄｅｄｉｎｖａｒｉｏｕｓｗａｙｓｂｙＭｃＶｉｔｉｅａｎｄＷｉｌｓｏｎ［２～５］,Ｐｒｏｌｌ［６］,Ｗｉｌｓｏｎ［７］,Ｉｔｏｇａ［８～１０］,Ａｌｌｉｓｏｎ［１１］,ａｎｄＫｒｅｕｔｚｅｒ…     

Science as Systemic Intervention: Some Implications of Systems Thinking and Complexity for the Philosophy of Science

This paper sidesteps the usual starting points for debate about complexity and the philosophy of science, which tend to assume that science is primarily about observation. Instead, the starting point is intervention, defined as purposeful action by an agent to create change. While some authors suggest that intervention and observation are opposites, it is argued here that observation (as undertaken in science) should be viewed as just one type of intervention. We should therefore welcome scientific techniques of observation into a pluralistic set of intervention methods, alongside methods for exploring values, reflecting on subjective understandings, planning future activities, etc. However, there is a need to explicitly counter a possible pernicious interpretation of this argument: intervention could (erroneously) be viewed as flawlessly preplanned change based on accurate predictions of the consequences of action. This is the mechanistic worldview that systems thinking and complexity science seek to challenge. Therefore, having redefined scientific observation as intervention, the paper revisits insights from systems thinking and complexity to propose a methodology of systemic intervention. Some brief reflections are then provided on the wider social implications of this methodology.     

A Systemic View of Transformational Leadership

A systemic view of transformational leadership is developed. Initially the terms administration, management, and leadership are distinguished. Leadership as an aesthetic function is then discussed. Growth, visions, and strategy continue discussions. It is then argued why leadership cannot be taught. Ways of viewing the world as systems that underpins transformational leadership are then set out. The paper concludes with a discussion of systemic transformation.     

The Systemic Approach of SSM: The Case of a Brazilian Company

This paper aims to describe the application of Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) to the reality of a Brazilian enterprise. Systemic practices are ways of putting to use systemic thought in the real world, using the precepts of the systemic approach, which is very important for knowledge management and globalization. The systemic practice SSM is used in the resolution of ill-defined problems, which often involve behavioral variables and, thus, cannot be addressed by the so-called hard methodologies. In this paper, SSM is applied to the problematic of a middle-market business, an auto supply distributor, whose managers consulted the authors of this paper as regards proposing improvements of its performance. As a result of this work, the authors were able to propose core changes in attitudes, leading to changes in structure and process.     

A Case of Energy and Ecology System Development and a New Approach to System Dynamics Modeling

1　IntroductionIn our previous subject concerned with the development of energy and ecology systemengineering[1 ] ,we have proposed SD rate variable fundamental in- tree modeling and,then,built the model of this system which totally included six in- trees with this newapproach.But the difficulty in locating all feedback loops is a barrier on the way of ourfurther research on the feedback structure and functions of the complex system.Therefore,a new algebraic method named after SD branch- vec…     

Diagnosis of Organizational Soft Problems in a Peruvian Financial Institution by Systemic Thinking

Managing financial institutions in an underdeveloped economic context has become a real challenge nowadays. In order to reach the organization’s planned goals, they have to deal with structural, behavioral and informational problems. From the systemic point of view, this situation gets even worse when the company does not present organizational boundaries and a cohesive identification for their stakeholders. Thus, European countries have some special financial lines in order to help the development of micro credit in Latin communities in an attempt to help the local economy. However, institutions like Caixa dos Andes in Peru present management problems when dealing with this complexity. Based on this, how can the systemic eye help in the diagnosis of soft problems of a Peruvian financial company? This study aims to diagnose soft problems of a Peruvian financial company based on soft variables like identity, communication and autonomy and also intends to identify possible ways to redesign its basic framework. The (VSM––Viable System Model) method from Beer (1967), applied in this diagnostic study, was used in a practical way as a management tool for organizations’ analysis and planning. By describing the VSM’s five systems, the creation of a systemic vision or a total vision is possible, showing the organization’s complexity from the inside. Some company’s soft problems like double control, inefficient use of physical and human resources, low information flows, slowness, etc. The VSM presented an organizational diagnosis indicating effective solutions that do integrate its five systems.     

A Systemic View of Change Management and Its Conceptual Underpinnings

This paper presents a critical analysis of a systemic view of change management and its conceptual underpinnings. It reflects upon the systemic view from perspectives of modernism and postmodernism. The understandings so developed are then synthesised in terms of structuration theory. It is argued that organisational change is characterised by diversity and interactions, which necessitates a systemic approach using multiple methods in one intervention. By making transparent the conceptual underpinnings, it is shown that this systemic view can help build an improved understanding of organisational change characterised by diversity and interactions, and it can support the use of multiple methods to manage organisational change in one intervention.     

Applying Systemic Project Management Approaches for the UK National Health Service

This paper sets out some observations arising from on-going research into the use of systemic methods in the planning of complex projects within the National Health Service (NHS) in Staffordshire and Shropshire in the UK. This brief paper sets out the main reasons for the application of systemic approaches, the nature of the methodologies put in place and some of the outcomes and reflections of those involved in the various workshops. Whilst not attempting to be definitive in our conclusions, the authors believe that the results of the application of systemic methods by Health and Care professionals show a range of strengths going forward.Published with the kind permission of Staffordshire and Shropshire Workforce Development Directorate.     

The Systems Approach to the Pluralist Theory of International Relations: A Case Study of the European Union

This article aims at introducing concepts related to the systems approach applied to the international system. First, the authors describe the systems view considering General Systems Theory in order to conceptualize the international systems as well as the Pluralist Theory of International Relations. Based on General Systems Theory, the authors analyze the international systems from the perspective of the Pluralist Theory of International Relations, using a case study on the European Union. The pluralist image of international systems presents important similarities to Systems Theory, as it analyzes the international context, characterized by variety, complexity and dynamics and uses the concepts of object, attribute, inputs and outputs, environment, motivations and process, which enable a better understanding of the international system.

跨银行与企业部门的系统性风险研究

从风险反馈视角，研究跨银行与企业部门的系统性风险贡献度与传染效应.基于债务排序方法构建了银企系统性风险测度模型，并基于2018年中国银企间借贷数据进行研究.研究结果表明：银行节点在银行层的债务等级小于在企业层的债务等级，而企业节点在企业层的债务等级小于在银行层的债务等级；银企信贷系统中存在少数系统重要性银行和企业，其系统性风险贡献度高；随着银行或企业的信贷规模增大，所对应的总债务等级越高，而且总债务等级与信贷规模呈现非线性特征；随着信贷宽松程度变大，银行与企业的系统性风险贡献度呈现下降特征；在不同信贷宽松政策下，由企业所引发的总信贷损失始终大于银行，而且造成的银企信贷系统崩溃的阈值始终小于银行；信贷政策宽松程度对维持银企信贷系统的稳定性具有积极影响，特别对银行的作用更为显著.     

Collaborative Project Management: A Systemic Approach to Heavy Equipment Manufacturing Project Management

Quite often over the last decade, heavy equipment manufacturers are trying to improve their project management performance with the use of effective project management methods. However, the challenges encountered aren’t isolated problems and a systemic approach is required. This paper exemplifies how a systemic approach can be applied to heavy equipment manufacturing project (HEMP) management, through of a multifaceted vision. The findings present in the paper are based on a two-year case study in a metallurgic equipment manufacturing enterprise in China. Based on the analysis of HEMP management problems and the contributions on systemic approach application in project management, the paper enriches existing theory by: (1) interpreting the HEMP management system with the top-down disassembly method; (2) developing the collaborative project management approach with a systems view highlighting the project characteristics management and inter-departmental collaboration; (3) making suggestions for systemic approach application in project management. For practitioners and researchers, the findings are particularly meaningful for manufacturing project management and systemic approach application.     

The Need for a Systemic Approach to Change Management—A Case Study

Change is now a constant feature of organizational life, but the effectiveness of change management initiatives is often open to question. By reflecting on a case of change management involving a Higher Education Institution (HEI), this paper argues that, to be more effective, organizational change must be managed systemically. The paper first provides a systemic conceptual underpinning to change management, and then examines the case by comparing what had really happened with what might have happened if organizational change had been managed systemically. The analysis helps build an improved understanding of change management, and provides implications for future change management practice.     

A Compromise Approach to Lexicographic Optimal Solution in Multiple Objective Programming

ＡＣｏｍｐｒｏｍｉｓｅＡｐｐｒｏａｃｈｔｏＬｅｘｉｃｏｇｒａｐｈｉｃＯｐｔｉｍａｌＳｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｉｎＭｕｌｔｉｐｌｅＯｂｊｅｃｔｉｖｅＰｒｏｇｒａｍｍｉｎｇＸＵＪｉｕｐｉｎｇＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＡｐｐｌｉｅｄＭａｔｈｅｍａｔｉｃｓ，Ｃｈｅｎｇｄ...     

复杂性理论的形而上学问题与建构策略研究

当今时代,各种复杂性理论变体对于经典形而上学思维带来了挑战,并引起了人们对于复杂性理论是否是科学的怀疑。为了理解什么是复杂性以及怎么应对它所带来的形而上学新问题。首先,给出一个关于复杂性的相对定义,并介绍复杂性理论的三个发展阶段成果;其次,比较研究经典思维和复杂性思维的形而上学预设的冲突;最后,建构适应于复杂性理论的形而上学的构成承诺和构成原则。     

论科学发展观的系统思维特征

当代系统思维作为反映现代科学研究方法论内在要求的社会思维范式，具有自身思维的开放性、复杂性、整体性和协调发展性等基本特点。当代系统思维是科学发展的思维基础。科学发展观本质上是属于系统思维发展观，具有发展思维的开放性、人之主体性、人之动因与目的性、发展形式的多样性、整体的协调性和有序调控性等系统思维特征及其时代内涵。