Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts

A decomposition of the Brier skill score shows that the performance of judgmental forecasts depends on seven components: environmental predictability, fidelity of the information system, match between environment and forecaster, reliability of information acquisition, reliability of information processing, conditional bias, and unconditional bias. These components provide a framework for research on the forecasting process. Selected literature addressing each component is reviewed, and implications for improving judgmental forecasting are discussed.     

State of the field: Latin American decolonial philosophies of science

Today, new histories of science are producing skeptical questions about the supposedly international philosophies of science that prevail in the North. The conceptual resources of such philosophies seem inadequate to enable them to interact effectively with how sciences and their philosophies do, could, and should function in today's economic, political, social and cultural, local and global contexts. How international, or universal, are these philosophies of science in reality? Here the focus will be on just one strain of these challenges. This one has emerged from Latin Americans who are creating anti-colonial histories and philosophies of knowledge production. They have named it modernity/coloniality/decolonial theory (MCD). They intend to develop a philosophy of science adequate for its own, Latin American needs. In the process, they transform typical Northern assumptions about modernity, its origins and its effects on Northern philosophies of science, as these are understood in both Latin America and around the globe.Five aspects of the MCD accounts will be discussed here. The first is historical differences between the worlds of the Spanish and Portuguese colonization of the Americas in the sixteenth century and of the worlds of the mostly British colonization of India and Africa in the ‘long nineteenth century’. Second is feminist and anti-racist issues in these Latin American histories. Third is the neglect of these histories in the North. Fourth is the continuing effects of the rise and fall of a positivist philosophy of science in Latin America. The fifth is two progressive post-positivist tensions for Northern philosophy of science produced in this work.     

Kepler: Analogies in the search for the law of refraction

This paper examines the methodology used by Kepler to discover a quantitative law of refraction. The aim is to argue that this methodology follows a heuristic method based on the following two Pythagorean principles: (1) sameness is made known by sameness, and (2) harmony arises from establishing a limit to what is unlimited. We will analyse some of the author's proposed analogies to find the aforementioned law and argue that the investigation's heuristic pursues such principles.     

Hair in Dominican amber: Evidence for tertiary land mammals in the Antilles

Summary A piece of amber from the Dominican Republic contained approximately 50 strands of mammalian hair. Based on its characteristics and the identification of two species of fossilized ectoparasites that were also present, it is probable that the hair belonged to a rodent. This find represents the earliest fossil remains of land mammals in the Antilles and lends support to the vicariance model of West Indian biogeography.     

Agroforestry in Mexico: Can the past be a guarantee for the future?

Some aspects of agroforestry systems in Mexico are reviewed, including the chinampas, a unique type of prehispanic home-garden, still in use today, mainly in the Mexico valley; the Huastec té'lom (in the north of Veracruz State) an agroforestry technique used by the farmers for sustainable exploitation of natural resources; and forest-farming among the Maya (Yucatan), a production strategy which has evolved over a long period. Some other, more recent agroforesting techniques are also reviewed. The discussion emphasizes the biological, ecological and social significance of agroforestry systems. Agroforestry, however, must be considered within its socio-economic context. Assessing the needs and potentialities of a region must be the first step towards integrating agroforestry systems into the socio-economic realities of today.     

Immunophilins: for the love of proteins

Immunophilins are chaperones that may also exhibit peptidylprolyl isomerase (PPIase) activity. This review summarizes our knowledge of the two largest families of immunophilins, namely cyclophilin and FK506-binding protein, and a novel chimeric dual-family immunophilin, named FK506- and cyclosporin-binding protein (FCBP). The larger members of each family are modular in nature, consisting of multiple PPIase and/or protein-protein interaction domains. Despite the apparent difference in their sequence and three-dimensional structure, the three families encode similar enzymatic and biological functions. Recent studies have revealed that many immunophilins possess a chaperone function independent of PPIase activity. Knockout animal studies have confirmed multiple essential roles of immunophilins in physiology and development. An immunophilin is indeed a natural ‘protein-philin’ (Greek ‘philin’ = friend) that interacts with proteins to guide their proper folding and assembly. Received: 7 May 2006; received after revision 3 July 2006; accepted 24 August 2006     

Intercellular pathways in the heart: Direct evidence for low resistance channels

Zusammenfassung In einzelne Zellen von Kaninchen-und Rattenherzen wurde Natriumfluoreszin injiziert, wobei der Farbstoff direkt von Zelle zu Zelle diffundierte, aber nicht merklich auf den Extrazellulärraum übertritt. Daraus wird gefolgert, dass zwischen den Myocardzellen Verbindungswege existieren, von wo aus Impulse weitergeleitet werden können.

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Supported by grants Nos. HL 13517, GM 15991 and GM 16436 from the National Institutes of Health.