Community Organizations in Venezuela: Toward the Disintegration of the Modern State and the Emergence of a "Community Organized" Society?

This paper argues that Venezuelan community organizations (COs) are playing a substantial role in the building of a new social order in which elements such as rights, equity, and justice are being displaced from a universal narrative toward more local narratives. This displacement is enwrapped in a discourse on the political participation of citizens in the running of public affairs, which implies a redefinition of the role of COs and the state beyond the usually accepted sphere of COs. The need to unfold the sense of COs thus becomes paramount for understanding our present and its current manifestations of an epochal change.     

面向应急管理的人工社会元建模方法

针对非常规突发事件应急管理建模的需要探索新的方法,面向应急管理的人工社会元建模方法尝试利用元模型描述人工社会基本要素,利用领域建模方法刻画应急管理领域模型,采用模型变换和代码生成支持计算实验.本文以公共卫生突发事件应急管理研究为案例,利用人工社会元建模方法构造了人工社会元模型、突发事件模型、应急管理模型,并采用仿真模型代码生成技术直接产生计算实验模型代码框架.案例的构造过程表明面向应急管理的人工社会元建模方法是一种自洽的、贴近应急管理问题研究的建模方法,可以在集成项目的工作中发挥重要的作用.     

A Cognitive Science Framework for the Analysis of Knowledge-Based Systems

ＡＣｏｇｎｉｔｉｖｅＳｃｉｅｎｃｅＦｒａｍｅｗｏｒｋｆｏｒｔｈｅＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆＫｎｏｗｌｅｄｇｅ－ＢａｓｅｄＳｙｓｔｅｍｓＦｅｎｇＳｈａｎ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＡｕｔｏｍａｔｉｃＣｏｎｔｒｏｌＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇ，ＨｕａｚｈｏｎｇＵｎｉｖ...     

社会设计工程问题框架

为寻求一种解决社会问题的工程化方法,提出了社会设计工程.研究了社会设计工程问题框架,给出了框架的五要素及其相互关系,对问题的解进行了描述.最后,通过分析社会设计工程问题的特点,得出社会设计工程问题不能靠对策论或运筹学等简单方法进行处理,需要运用解决复杂性问题的方法来处理.     

人流紧急疏散模拟方法述评

将用于人流疏散的主要模拟方法进行整理,归纳为三大类:①微观模型,如元胞自动机模型、格子气模型、社会力模型、基于Agent模型及基于博弈论模型;②宏观模型,例如流体动力学模型;③基于生物实验视角.通过比较分析这些模拟方法各自的独特性和适用性,认为:对于微观模型,多种模拟方法组合来研究人流疏散;宏观模型适合于个体无差异的大规模行人流动模拟;生物实验可以作为一种验证微观模型及宏观模型模拟结果的有效手段.     

构建和谐社会离不开系统思维的指导

构建和谐社会,已成为当代社会共识。社会主义和谐社会不仅是我们所追求的社会价值目标、同时也是一种现实的社会构建运动,因而也具有社会实践的本体论意义。社会主义和谐社会具有自身社会运动的系统特征,它本质上是一种系统思维的社会实践诠释。构建社会主义和谐社会,需要系统思维方式的指导,即在构建社会主义和谐社会活动过程中必须贯彻系统思维的开放性原则、整体性原则、复杂性原则和能动调控的实践性原则。     

社会治理视角下的和谐社会形成机制及策略

针对当前我国和谐社会建设过程中面临的社会矛盾普遍、群体性事件频发、深化改革呼声四起等现象，从社会治理三种机制的互动及政治体制环境出发，分析指出国家治理和政府管理中的软法治、市场机制不完善、网络治理机制的弱化以及政治体制的不完善是这些不和谐现象产生的主要原因.在概括和谐社会基本形式和本质的基础上，分析了如何通过网络、层级和市场三种社会治理机制的良性互动构造社会稳定秩序的机制，以及通过政治体制改革为三种机制的互动和建设和谐社会提供良好的环境，并借鉴和谐管理理论探讨了建设和谐社会的任务和策略.     

An Analytical Framework of Social Learning Facilitated by Participatory Methods

Social learning among different stakeholders is often a goal in problem solving contexts such as environmental management. Participatory methods (e.g., group model-building and role playing games) are frequently assumed to stimulate social learning. Yet understanding if and why this assumption is justified is quite limited. Difficulties arise from the complexity and context-dependence of processes influencing social learning. Furthermore, continuing discussion of the exact meaning and theoretical basis of social learning result in a limited capacity to assess and evaluate whether social learning has occurred. In this paper we introduce an analytical framework to develop an in depth understanding of essential processes underlying social learning facilitated by participatory methods. Concepts from different fields of science are discussed and integrated, including resource management, small group research and learning research. The individual and group perspectives are brought together via mental models and emergent roles. We added the direction of learning, being either convergent or divergent, to be able to explore if and when personal views on a problem converge into a shared understanding of a problem. The analysis of convergence and divergence of learning is facilitated through the use of the mental model concept. Methods for measurement of proposed indicators for social learning are also discussed. The framework developed provides a conceptual basis for the analysis of social learning facilitated by participatory methods and an operationalization for application in empirical research.     

灾害应对策略的评估模型及分类框架研究

根据影响救灾行动绩效的两个关键因素:灾害响应时间和物流专业化水平,提出了一种灾害应对策略的评估模型及分类框架.该策略评估模型以最小化社会损失为目标,通过建立政企合作下最优订货量模型和社会损失效率评价模型,从数量和效率两个维度分析灾害救援行动的绩效.根据此框架,可以将常见的灾害应对策略划分为4类:即时型自主物流策略、预防型自主物流策略、即时型外包物流策略和预防型外包物流策略.在此框架下,通过横向和纵向的交叉比较及实际算例分析得到如下结论:对于帐篷、棉被等非易腐物资,采用预防型自主物流策略可以在数量和效率两方面提高救灾行动绩效,这与我国目前大力发展救灾物资储备体系和基础运输网络以提高救灾行动绩效的政策相吻合;对于药品、食物、血浆等易腐性救灾物资,采用预防型外包物流策略则更为有效,这一结论从理论的角度证明了政企合作式救灾应急模式的可行性和必要性.该研究对未来我国健全救灾物资储备制度、完善救灾应对策略体系、建立政府与企业合作救灾新模式提供了理论依据.     

集市模型:少数者与多数者博弈演化分析

为比较主体不同行为策略对社会经济复杂系统演化的影响,基于酒吧模型提出了多数者博弈的集市模型A和少数者-多数者混合博弈的集市模型B。采用多主体建模方法,引入了主体的预期规则、策略选择、学习与适应等微观机制,模型模拟结果展现了人类社会系统所独有的预期的自我实现和/或自我毁灭现象。文章着重讨论了主体预期、行为策略对稳态参与人数均值的影响,发现主体的行为策略是决定系统演化结果的关键因素。     

基于大数据的食源性疾病事件探测与风险评估

食源性疾病由于其症状轻重不一常被低估,但近年来,食源性疾病的爆发在全国范围内呈上升趋势,准确探测食源性疾病事件并对其进行风险评估有重要意义.本文分别对哨点医院监测数据、食品检测数据和来自互联网的数据建立事件探测模型,实现风险评估,并分析比较模型优劣,最后建立统一的时空框架,引入人口、交通、食品生产等大数据对风险预测结果进行综合集成.通过对某大城市2014年食源性疾病事件的探测结果对比,实证结果表明,综合模型预测的时空精度更高,对防控更具操作性.     

A sketch for humane operational research in a technological society

This article is based on my presidential address to the Swedish Operational Research Society 1996 Conference. It starts with a statement affirming the critical need to incorporate virtues and norms in the management and operation of our institutions. With the help of multimodal systems thinking and Stafford Beer's Viable Systems Model, it builds a framework that allows the transfer of such things as faith, love, and wisdom into the operation of our social systems and their management. The article concludes with the placing of operational research and management theory within this framework and with a challenge to all operational researchers to work for new modeling techniques that will contribute to a more virtuous and humane society.     

Revisiting the similar process to engineer the contemporary systems

This paper addresses the present-day context of Systems Engineering, revisiting and setting up an updated framework for the SIMILAR process in order to use it to engineer the contemporary systems. The contemporary world is crowded of large interdisciplinary complex systems made of other systems, personnel, hardware, software, information, processes, and facilities. An integrated holistic approach is crucial to develop these systems and take proper account of their multifaceted nature and numerous interrelationships. As the system’s complexity and extent grow, the number of parties involved (stakeholders and shareholders) usually also raises, bringing to the interaction a considerable amount of points of view, skills, responsibilities, and interests. The Systems Engineering approach aims to tackle the complex and interdisciplinary whole of those socio-technical systems, providing the means to enable their successful realization. Its exploitation in our modern world is assuming an increasing relevance noticeable by emergent standards, academic papers, international conferences, and post-graduate programmes in the field. This work aims to provide “the picture” of modern Systems Engineering, and to update the context of the SIMILAR process model in order to use this renewed framework to engineer the challenging contemporary systems. The emerging trends in the field are also pointed-out with particular reference to the Model-Based Systems Engineering approach.     

Birth and Demise of a Social Protection Organization in Venezuela

In this article a context for the study of a social protection organization is presented. This context is based on three ideas: (i) social protection is a requirement for assuming the cohesion and continuation of society; (ii) in an industrialized society, social protection is conceived in connection with salary; and (iii) the organizational form of social protection in Venezuelan society is Social Security guaranteed by a Welfare State. The becoming of our Social Security organization is interpreted with these concepts. The interpretive process consists in the unfolding of the relation between the organizational form and the conceptions about social protection since the birth of the organization 60 years ago. This unfolding simultaneously reveals failure concerning coverage of the risks typical of social security and a radical change in the conception of social protection in Venezuela. These results rest on the non-realization of premise ii of the interpretive context in the case of the Venezuelan society. The article concludes by showing the need to understand the conceptions regarding social protection in contexts different from that of an industrial society (advanced or not).     

Participatory Model Construction and Model Use in Natural Resource Management: a Framework for Reflection

In this article we propose a framework which can assist analysts in their reflection on the requirements for a participatory modelling exercise in natural resource management. Firstly, we distinguish different types of formal models which may be developed, ranging from models that focus on (bio)physical mechanisms to models which also include the actors involved in the utilisation of the resource and the social mechanisms that co-determine actor behaviour. Secondly, we consider what different modes of stakeholder participation entail for model construction and use. Finally, we propose six different purposes for a modelling exercise (clarify arguments and values, research and analyse, design and recommend, provide strategic advice, mediate, and democratise), and highlight conditions that affect the appropriateness of stakeholder participation for each purpose. The framework does not provide a straightforward recipe for the selection of participatory modelling methods, but we expect that the systematic reflection it affords will help analysts to make appropriate choices while designing a modelling exercise.     

虚拟团队中的社会惰性——基于知识型团队的实验研究

本文以社会资本理论和工作动机理论为理论框架,提出了虚拟团队中的社会惰性模型.从个体内在动机和外部环境两个层面,提出并解释了虚拟团队中社会惰性的影响机制.本文通过准实验研究对由87名学生组成的11个实验小组进行观察,随后又进行了问卷调查,对提出的假设进行了验证.结果表明,个体所拥有的社会资本能显著降低其社会惰性;社会资本与声誉和社会临场感之间的交互作用,对社会惰性的降低作用也得到了验证.最后,论文对团队管理、沟通技术设计以及未来研究提出了建议.     

基于政府、企业、社会三方动态博弈的企业社会责任分析

从政府、企业、社会三方视角,建立三方动态博弈的企业社会责任分析模型。然后根据动态博弈模型求出三方利益最大化的均衡解,最后,提出了促使企业承担社会责任的对策。     

A Systemic Framework for Business Model Design and Development -Part A: Theorizing Perspective

Developing innovative business models is one of the complicated issues. Owing to the multiplicity of stakeholders with diverse worldviews about value creation and dynamic markets, the development of innovative business models has turned out to be a complex issue. Therefore, this research seeks to: (1) examine the complicated nature of the development of business model problem and, (2) provide a holistic and systemic framework for the development of business models. The proposed framework employs the Soft Systems Methodology (SSM). This framework is composed of 18 phases, which ranges from the phase of finding out the problem of developing a business model to the phase of its implementation. This methodology is characterized by taking into account the considerations of rational positioning views, evolutionary views, and cognitive views in designing and developing business models.     

A Formal Framework for Spreadsheet System

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基于百度热搜新闻词的社会风险事件5W提取研究

当今中国处于经济转型升级的关键时期,社会主要矛盾发生了历史性变化,社会风险事件发生的频率比以往更高,危害社会稳定.将公众在线的搜索和关注数据映射为潜在的社会风险事件,如何有效地自动标注风险事件以及直观、清晰地描述社会风险事件是本文关注的重点.本文尝试定义风险事件的5W框架来结构化的描述社会风险,包括地点(where)、时间(when)、人物(who)、原因(why)和发生内容(what).风险事件的5W抽取可转化为不同的机器学习任务,包括命名实体识别、风险分类以及关键词抽取.依据5W的抽取任务进而探索有效的抽取方法.通过对风险事件5W的自动抽取,将现实中社会风险这种wicked问题转化为结构化问题进行分析,为研究社会风险提供一个新的视角,对政府部门进行舆情分析与风险监测具有重要意义.