2005年夏季海气热通量影响副热带高压数值试验

利用RegCM3区域气候模式对2005年夏季西北太平洋副热带高压进行了控制性和敏感性试验,试图探讨海气热通量异常对西北太平洋副热带高压移动、强度的影响。结果表明：感热、潜热通量的变化对低层的西北太平洋副热带高压北跳并不起决定性作用,但对副高主体的强度、东西移动有显著影响。     

基于CFD的油品泄漏扩散过程的数值模拟

构建油品泄漏扩散过程的三维计算流体力学（CFD）模型,研究地面粗糙度、泄漏口直径、泄漏速度和油品物性等因素对液池面积的影响;并根据液池扩展理论结合模拟结果拟合得到计算液池面积的经验关联式,可用来预估不同泄漏情况下液池的面积。结果表明液池面积随时间呈线性增加,随地面粗糙高度增大而减小,随泄漏速度、泄漏口直径增大而增大;地面粗糙常数、油品的密度和黏度对液池面积的影响较小。该研究结果可望为确定泄漏事故的影响范围及采取相应的防护措施提供理论基础和技术指导。     

沙漠表面电磁散射的矩量法研究

采用一维指数型分布粗糙面模型和Monte Carlo方法模拟实际的沙漠表面,利用土壤介电常数的四成分模型计算沙土的介电常数,运用矩量法研究了沙漠表面的电磁散射特性,数值计算得出了沙漠表面电磁散射系数随散射角和入射波频率的变化曲线,讨论了电磁散射系数随沙漠土壤湿度、沙漠表面高度起伏均方根、相关长度、入射波频率的变化关系,数值计算结果表明,沙土湿度、沙漠表面高度起伏均方根、相关长度、入射波频率对沙漠表面电磁散射系数的影响是比较复杂的.     

我国西北地区沙漠改良可能引起的辐射强迫及其气候效应

以辐射对流模式和区域气候模式为工具，采用虚拟试验的办法，对我国西北地区3种沙漠改良方案（退沙还草，退沙还田，退沙还林）可能产生的辐射强迫及其区域气候效应进行了数值模拟。结果表明：3种方案均能促使西北地区的干旱状况有所缓解，其中退沙还林方案的缓解效应最为明显，可以使得西北地区平均地面气压上升0．25hPa，地面气温降低0．52℃，降水强度增加0．60mm/d。3种方案引起的辐射强迫皆为正值，分别为2．28、2．84、6．79W/m^2，变化趋势与地面温度变化并不一致，表明对于下垫面改变造成的气候强迫而言，辐射强迫并非反映气候变化的较好指标。     

我国北方地区植被类型变化气候效应的虚拟数值试验

利用区域气候模式 (RegCM 2 )对东北西部、华北北部和西北东部、华北西部两个生态环境脆弱地区植被类型分别由草地变为农田和森林后对区域气候的影响程度进行虚拟数值试验 ,结果表明 ,我国北方地区植被类型由草地变为耕地或森林将使得这些地区夏季降水减少 ,温度升高 ,5 0 0hPa位势高度升高 ,副热带高压控制地区的位势高度降低 ,从而使副高减弱 ,不利于我国北方的降水增加 .从虚拟数值试验的对比中可发现 ,华北北部、东北西部地区植被类型改变比西北东部、华北西部地区植被类型改变所引起的降水减少、温度升高和副高减弱效果显著 .此外 ,对于同一个地区的植被类型改变而言 ,由草地变为森林比由草地变为耕地所引起的降水减少、温度升高和 5 0 0hPa位势高度变化效应大 .因此 ,根据数值试验结果可知 ,退耕还草可能是我国北方干旱半干旱地区改善环境的有效方式 ,华北北部和东北西部为开展有序人类活动的最佳地区     

关于沙漠化问题的几点思考

中国沙漠化土地从东北经华北到西北形成一条不连续的弧形分布带,土地沙漠化速率不断加快,作为世界上沙漠面积较大、分布较广、沙漠化危害严重的国家之一,中国沙漠化面积已经达到262万km2,占国土面积的27%,而且呈扩展的态势。本文通过介绍沙漠及沙漠化成因认识到沙漠化扩散所导致的生态、社会、经济等严峻问题,对沙漠化的研究方向提出一些思考和建议,对沙漠化治理作进一步探讨。     

PTFE＋青铜丝复合材料磨损粗糙面高度特征参数分析

通过试验测量与理论计算,分析了PTFE 青铜丝复合材料的磨损粗糙面高度特征参数的分析特点,获得该复合材料磨损粗糙表面的高度概率分布函数的峰态值一般大于3,低速时,该值随试验压力升高而增大;高速时,其磨损表面形貌特征主要受摩擦温度的影响。     

海温季节和年际变化对东亚区域气候变率模拟的影响

利用P-σ区域气候模式通过数值试验分析和探讨了海温季节变化和年际变化对东亚地区气候变率模拟的影响．数值分析试验结果发现，实际海温强迫下模拟的500hPa高度场年际变率较有或没有海温季节变化强迫模拟的结果在冬夏两季基本上是增强的，海温的年际变化对模拟500hPa高度场年际变率是尤为重要的．海温的季节变化强迫使得模拟的500hPa高度场在冬季增强，夏季减弱，且在高纬度地区变化幅度较大．海温的年际和季节变化使得东亚地区的500hPa温度在冬季升高，而夏季在低纬度地区的温度降低，其中在华南沿海、南海北部和盂加拉湾地区降低最甚，高纬地区变化不明显．此外，海温的季节和年际变化强迫对华南地区降水率差值的影响远比对长江中下游地区明显．     

低覆盖度下单个粗糙元保护作用的变化特征

圆柱体和长方体是地表风蚀相关研究中最常见的2种粗糙元.基于已有关于这2种粗糙元流向风速变化模型,推导了低覆盖度下均匀分布的单个粗糙元的保护区域最大流向长度、保护区域面积和保护效率的表达式,并考察和比较了采用这2种粗糙元时,这些物理量随面率和粗糙密度的变化规律.结果表明,随着粗糙密度的增加,单个粗糙元保护区域最大流向长度先增加后减小,最后逐渐趋于稳定;粗糙元保护效率随宽度呈单调减小后逐渐趋于稳定,而随着高度的增加呈现先增大后减小而后趋于稳定;相同面率和粗糙密度情况下,长方体粗糙元的保护效率比圆柱体粗糙元的更高.这些结果可为防治地表侵蚀提供理论指导.     

论温室效应对中国社会经济发展的影响

大气中日益增多的温室气体将使中国的气候产生显著的变化。利用大气环流气候模式进行的模拟试验揭示:如果大气中温室气体的含量以目前的增长率持续增长,与目前的气候相比较,在21世纪中期,中国的年均气温增加4.6℃,年均降水增加7％,中国旱涝发生的概率增大。因日益增加的温室效应而造成的气候变化将对中国社会、经济的发展产生巨大的影响,如农业问题、生态系统影响问题、华北缺水问题、西北沙漠化问题、黄河治理问题、沿海建设问题。     

中国西部绿化对东亚季风气候影响的数值模拟

中国西部大开发战略中的生态环境建设将在西部地区引起显著的地表覆盖变化。根据最新的全球地表特征数据库资料和21世纪初中国西部生态环境三大重点建设工程的具体规划，得出两种植被，即现实植被和虚拟植被。并利用RIEMS—TEA模式，通过一次敏感性试验，发现西部地区绿化明显影响东亚的季风系统和中国东部季风区气候。模拟试验显示，中国西部绿化会明显增强东亚夏季风，这将会加强中国东部由南向北的水汽输送，并有利于输送邻近海洋的水汽到大陆，使得中国大陆东部季风区整体出现降温、增湿和降水增加。而且，温度、湿度、气压和风速受影响的程度在垂直方向上都已超出了边界层之外。     

Reconstructed index of summer monsoon dry-wet modes in East Asia for the last millennium

Monthly precipitation datasets collected at 160 stations in China as well as the monthly winds and humidity data derived from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were used to construct the relationship between six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China and the summer monsoon airflow northward advance in East Asia. A millennial series of the monsoon dry-wet index (MDWI) was reconstructed based on Wang??s six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China since 950 AD. A high (low) index indicates that the strong (weak) East Asian summer monsoon airflow can reach northern (southern) China and cause above (below) normal precipitation. Interdecadal periodic variations, such as the approximate 70-year oscillation, can be found in the MDWI series. In the last millennium, northern China has experienced persistent decadal wet periods and persistent decadal dry periods. At present, the MDWI is a low period on the interdecadal time scale so above-normal precipitation is observed in southern China and below-normal precipitation in northern China.     

An virtual numerical experiment to understand the impacts of recovering natural vegetation on the summer climate and environmental conditions in East Asia

By applying a regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS), a virtual numerical experiment is implemented to study the impacts of recovering natural vegetation on the regional climate and environmental conditions. The results show that recovering the natural vegetation in large scale could have significant influence on summer climate in East Asia. Not only would it be able to change the surface climate, but also to modify to certain extent the intensity of monsoon circulation. Although this is a virtual experiment at an extremely ideal condition, the implication of the simulating results is that the on-going nation-wide activities to recover the crop land for forest and pasture must be managed according to the local natural climate, hydrological and soil conditions. Only under such a condition, would the recovering of natural vegetation bring about significant climate and environmental benefits at regional scale.     

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450?C1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pattern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400?C1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.     

Impact of land surface degradation in northern China and southern Mongolia on regional climate

Clear evidence provided by the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation data identifies that there exists a sensitive region of vegetation-climate interaction located in the transitional zone over northern China and its surrounding areas, where the vegetation cover change has the most significant influence on summer precipitation over China.““ Comparison of reanalysis data with station data provides a good method to assess the impacts of land use change on surface temperature, and the most obvious contribution of land use change may be to lead to notable warming over northern China in the interdecadal time scale. Based on the new statistical results, a high-resolution regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS) is employed to investigate the effects of land surface degradation over the transitional zone and its surrounding areas (northern China and southern Mongolia) on the regional climate. Land degradation results in the decreases in precipitation over northern and southern China, and the increase in between, and increased and decreased temperature over vegetation change areas and the adjacent area to the south, respectively. Not only would it change the surface climate, but also bring the significant influence on the atmospheric circulation. Both the surface climate and circulation changes generally agree to the observed interdecadal anomalies over the last five decades. These integrated statistical and simulated results imply that land surface degradation over the transitional zone in northern China and its surrounding areas could be one of the main causes responsible for the climate anomalies over China, especially the drought over northern China.     

Progress in studies of the climate of humid period and the impacts of changing precession in early-mid Holocene

Studies on the climate of humid period and the impacts of changing precession in the early-mid Holocene are reviewed in this paper. High-resolution proxy data indicated that the African Humid Period, strong summer monsoon from the Arabian Sea to South Asia, northward migration of ITCZ （Intertropical Convergence Zone） over the northern South America, and the humid period of China appeared in 10.5-5.5 kaBP, 10.0--6.0 kaBP, 10.5-5.4 kaBP, and 11.0-8.0 kaBP, respectively. Modeling studies proved that summer insolation over the Northern Hemisphere increased following the changes of precession in the early Holocene, which increased the land-sea temperature contrasts, intensified the summer monsoon circulation over the area under the influence of summer monsoon. However, in the Northern Hemisphere, and finally induced a humid climate modeling results underestimated the increase of precipitation and the degree of northward extension of monsoon rain belt compared with palaeo-environmental data. These discrepancies between the modeling results and the palaeo-environmental data may be associated with the changes of North Atlantic circulation, sea ice and vegetation covers. Moreover, climate of the humid period was not stable, in which several droughts were inlaid on centennial scale. In this review, perspectives for further studies of the climate change of the humid period in the early-mid Holocene are also proposed. demy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier Limited and Science in China Press. All rights reserved.     

青藏高原中西部湖泊生物标志物记录的过去两千年气候变化

以青藏高原中西部湖泊达则错和阿翁错为研究对象,通过分析湖泊沉积物岩芯中GDGTs、长链不饱和烯酮与叶蜡化合物单体氢同位素等生物分子标志物获得过去2000 a以来青藏高原中西部定量的温度与降水同位素记录,以期探讨晚全新世以来不同时段青藏高原气候变化区域特征,并揭示过去2000 a季风与西风对青藏高原影响范围的变化.结果表明:(1)青藏高原气候变化存在强烈的区域性特征,两个湖泊均存在中世纪暖期(MWP),但是暖期持续的时间有所不同,高原西部(阿翁错) MWP持续时间明显长于高原中部(达则错);达则错有明显的小冰期(LIA)降温,阿翁错没有发现明显的LIA,可能受样品分辨率低的影响;过去200 a达则错温度有缓慢降低趋势,可能是冰融水补给湖泊温度变化滞后于气候变化的表现.(2)过去2000 a印度夏季风在青藏高原的最北界线可能发生了北移,在距今1000～2000 a,夏季风边界线位于阿翁错以北、达则错以南;但在过去1000 a印度季风边界线移动到阿翁错和达则错以北.     

Identifying the northernmost summer monsoon location in East Asia

An integrated index which can be used to indicate the advance of subtropical summer monsoon in East Asia has been proposed in this paper.The index was comhined by three variables including precipitation,wind and pseudo-equivalent potential tempera- ture.The northernmost summer monsoon location(NSML)was identified by using this index annually.It was found that the NSML ex- perienced an interdecadal shift in the period 1977—1979 based on the annual index analysis from 1961 to 2001.A comparison of the NSML with other four summer monsoon indices has also been made.The result showed that the NSML could well represent the interan- nual and interdecadal variability of summer monsoon precipitation in North China(beyond 35°N),while other four indices could well indi- cate the precipitation anomalies of East Asian summer monsoon along the Yangtze River valley(around 30°N).