Extinction and climate change

Arising from F. He & S. P. Hubbell 473, 368-371 (2011). Statistical relationships between habitat area and the number of species observed (species-area relationships, SARs) are sometimes used to assess extinction risks following habitat destruction or loss of climatic suitability. He and Hubbell argue that the numbers of species confined to-rather than observed in-different areas (endemics-area relationships, EARs) should be used instead of SARs, and that SAR-based extinction estimates in the literature are too high. We suggest that He and Hubbell's SAR estimates are biased, that the empirical data they use are not appropriate to calculate extinction risks, and that their statements about extinction risks from climate change do not take into account non-SAR-based estimates or recent observations. Species have already responded to climate change in a manner consistent with high future extinction risks.     

Universal species-area and endemics-area relationships at continental scales

Despite the broad conceptual and applied relevance of how the number of species or endemics changes with area (the species-area and endemics-area relationships (SAR and EAR)), our understanding of universality and pervasiveness of these patterns across taxa and regions has remained limited. The SAR has traditionally been approximated by a power law, but recent theories predict a triphasic SAR in logarithmic space, characterized by steeper increases in species richness at both small and large spatial scales. Here we uncover such universally upward accelerating SARs for amphibians, birds and mammals across the world’s major landmasses. Although apparently taxon-specific and continent-specific, all curves collapse into one universal function after the area is rescaled by using the mean range sizes of taxa within continents. In addition, all EARs approximately follow a power law with a slope close to 1, indicating that for most spatial scales there is roughly proportional species extinction with area loss. These patterns can be predicted by a simulation model based on the random placement of contiguous ranges within a domain. The universality of SARs and EARs after rescaling implies that both total and endemic species richness within an area, and also their rate of change with area, can be estimated by using only the knowledge of mean geographic range size in the region and mean species richness at one spatial scale.     

Species-area relationships always overestimate extinction rates from habitat loss

Extinction from habitat loss is the signature conservation problem of the twenty-first century. Despite its importance, estimating extinction rates is still highly uncertain because no proven direct methods or reliable data exist for verifying extinctions. The most widely used indirect method is to estimate extinction rates by reversing the species-area accumulation curve, extrapolating backwards to smaller areas to calculate expected species loss. Estimates of extinction rates based on this method are almost always much higher than those actually observed. This discrepancy gave rise to the concept of an 'extinction debt', referring to species 'committed to extinction' owing to habitat loss and reduced population size but not yet extinct during a non-equilibrium period. Here we show that the extinction debt as currently defined is largely a sampling artefact due to an unrecognized difference between the underlying sampling problems when constructing a species-area relationship (SAR) and when extrapolating species extinction from habitat loss. The key mathematical result is that the area required to remove the last individual of a species (extinction) is larger, almost always much larger, than the sample area needed to encounter the first individual of a species, irrespective of species distribution and spatial scale. We illustrate these results with data from a global network of large, mapped forest plots and ranges of passerine bird species in the continental USA; and we show that overestimation can be greater than 160%. Although we conclude that extinctions caused by habitat loss require greater loss of habitat than previously thought, our results must not lead to complacency about extinction due to habitat loss, which is a real and growing threat.     

Ecology: widespread colonization by polar hypoliths

High-latitude polar deserts are among the most extreme environments on Earth. Here we describe a large and previously unappreciated habitat for photosynthetic life under opaque rocks in the Arctic and Antarctic polar deserts. This habitat is created by the periglacial movement of the rocks, which allows some light to reach their underside. The productivity of this ecosystem is at least as great as that of above-ground biomass and potentially doubles previous productivity estimates for the polar desert ecozone.     

一种SAR图像空间域自适应滤波算法

针对合成孔径雷达(SAR)图像相干斑噪声抑制问题,提出了一种基于支持向量回归(SVR)分析的空间域自适应滤波方法.将SAR图像看作连续二维函数,利用SVR方法对其进行逼近.基于图像的逼近结果描述像素关联性,并基于关联性破坏程度对噪声进行类型分析,对不同类型的噪声采取确定性的抑制算法.为了保证精度,选择小波核函数构建支持向量回归机.实验结果表明该方法是有效的并对经典方法进行了改进.     

Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change.

Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage. Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.     

隐含自回归视频业务模型

在无线移动通信领域中 ,为提高接入控制中对速率预测的精度 ,作者提出了一类新的视频信源模型——隐含自回归模型。该模型利用伽马分布随机变量的立方根服从正态分布这一特性成功地仿真了视频业务。仿真实验说明无论是分布特性、复用特性还是码率变化轨迹 ,新模型均优于传统的视频信源模型。因此 ,隐含自回归视频信源模型有效地解决了研究视频业务接入无线异步传输模式 (WATM)网特性时缺乏大量实际信源的难题 ,同时为设计高效的接入算法提供了思路。     

岩石平面磨削信号的EAR模型与Lyapunov指数

根据实验检测的切削信号，分别建立了不同磨削条件下的颤振位移和磨削力的ＥＡＲ模型，同时依据已建立的ＥＡＲ模型，通过Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数的分析计算，探讨混沌可能出现的切削条件，进而判断磨削系统是否发生混沌现象．图３，参７     

基于脉间中断调频连续波的高空慢速单基机载SAR成像

调频连续波用于高空慢速单基机载SAR成像时,收发隔离和远距离探测都是亟待解决的问题。结合高空慢速运动平台的特点,提出了一种脉间中断调频连续波(Inter-Pulses Interrupted Frequency-Modulated Continuous Wave, IPIFMCW)的信号模型,通过载频不同的门控信号调制多个发射信号,设置较大的脉间中断时间,将子脉冲回波差频信号在快时间域时移合成大带宽信号,实现高空慢速机载SAR成像。通过与脉间中断调频连续波(FMICW)的理论分析比较,说明该方法不仅解决了收发隔离难题,同时满足高空机载SAR远目标成像需求,避免出现距离模糊。最后结合频率变标算法(FSA)实现了基于IPIFMCW信号的高空慢速单基机载SAR成像。     

Simulation study on optimal currents and winds for the spaceborne SAR mapping of sea bottom topography

A simulation model for the radar backscattering cross section of the sea surface has been developed based on the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging mechanism of the sea bottom topography. The relationship between tidal currents, sea surface winds and the SAR mapping of the sea bottom topography has been analyzed using the results of the simulation. It is shown that the sea bottom topography can be observed by spaceborne SAR more easily at high current speeds. The optimal direction of the currents for mapping the sea bottom topography is the direction perpendicular to the bathymetric features while the direction parallel to the bathymetric features is the worst. The optimal range of wind speeds for mapping the sea bottom topography is between 3 and 9 m/s. The wind directions between 30° and 89° are preferred although the effect of the wind direction on SAR mapping of bottom topography is complicated.     

Ecosystem size determines food-chain length in lakes

Food-chain length is an important characteristic of ecological communities: it influences community structure, ecosystem functions and contaminant concentrations in top predators. Since Elton first noted that food-chain length was variable among natural systems, ecologists have considered many explanatory hypotheses, but few are supported by empirical evidence. Here we test three hypotheses that predict food-chain length to be determined by productivity alone (productivity hypothesis), ecosystem size alone (ecosystem-size hypothesis) or a combination of productivity and ecosystem size (productive-space hypothesis). The productivity and productive-space hypotheses propose that food-chain length should increase with increasing resource availability; however, the productivity hypothesis does not include ecosystem size as a determinant of resource availability. The ecosystem-size hypothesis is based on the relationship between ecosystem size and species diversity, habitat availability and habitat heterogeneity. We find that food-chain length increases with ecosystem size, but that the length of the food chain is not related to productivity. Our results support the hypothesis that ecosystem size, and not resource availability, determines food-chain length in these natural ecosystems.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence

On the basis of projected losses of their essential sea-ice habitats, a United States Geological Survey research team concluded in 2007 that two-thirds of the world's polar bears (Ursus maritimus) could disappear by mid-century if business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions continue. That projection, however, did not consider the possible benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. A key question is whether temperature increases lead to proportional losses of sea-ice habitat, or whether sea-ice cover crosses a tipping point and irreversibly collapses when temperature reaches a critical threshold. Such a tipping point would mean future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer no conservation benefits to polar bears. Here we show, using a general circulation model, that substantially more sea-ice habitat would be retained if greenhouse gas rise is mitigated. We also show, with Bayesian network model outcomes, that increased habitat retention under greenhouse gas mitigation means that polar bears could persist throughout the century in greater numbers and more areas than in the business-as-usual case. Our general circulation model outcomes did not reveal thresholds leading to irreversible loss of ice; instead, a linear relationship between global mean surface air temperature and sea-ice habitat substantiated the hypothesis that sea-ice thermodynamics can overcome albedo feedbacks proposed to cause sea-ice tipping points. Our outcomes indicate that rapid summer ice losses in models and observations represent increased volatility of a thinning sea-ice cover, rather than tipping-point behaviour. Mitigation-driven Bayesian network outcomes show that previously predicted declines in polar bear distribution and numbers are not unavoidable. Because polar bears are sentinels of the Arctic marine ecosystem and trends in their sea-ice habitats foreshadow future global changes, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions to improve polar bear status would have conservation benefits throughout and beyond the Arctic.     

欧美杨PdMODD基因克隆与表达特性分析

[目的]研究杨树重要胁迫响应新基因,为揭示杨树抗逆分子机制、培育优良抗逆杨树新品种提供理论依据.[方法]基于水稻MODD氨基酸序列,通过BLAST在美洲黑杨基因组中筛选得到3条基因(Podel.08G114100、Podel.10G158900和Podel.17G098500),并以其序列为参考,以'渤丰3号'杨cDN...     

生境破碎化对鼎湖山蝶类多样性的影响

随着鼎湖山自然保护区旅游业迅猛发展,人为干扰不断加剧,需了解人为干扰造成的生境破碎化对蝶类的影响.该次调查在鼎湖山自然保护区的缓冲区、核心区和旅游区共记录蝴蝶9科、90属、144种.其中蛱蝶科种类最多(35种,24.31%),保护种19种,主要为凤蝶科(4种)、眼蝶科(4种)、蛱蝶科(4种);园林害虫11种,主要为弄蝶科(3种).调查结果显示,旅游区的特有蝶类种类少(1种),其寄主为金丝桃科植物,多样性最低;而保护区内特有蝶类的种类较多(34种),主要寄主为禾本科植物;寄主植物最丰富的是山蟠蛱蝶,主要寄生于豆科植物;核心区多样性最高,其中有收录于红色名录的燕凤蝶、么妹黄粉蝶、惊恐方环蝶等.结合鼎湖山自然保护区各功能区的生境、蝶类物种多样性和群落多样性的分析结果显示,人为干扰越强,生境破碎化程度越高,蝴蝶种类数量越少,与海拔高度则无明显关系.     

Neutral theory and relative species abundance in ecology

The theory of island biogeography asserts that an island or a local community approaches an equilibrium species richness as a result of the interplay between the immigration of species from the much larger metacommunity source area and local extinction of species on the island (local community). Hubbell generalized this neutral theory to explore the expected steady-state distribution of relative species abundance (RSA) in the local community under restricted immigration. Here we present a theoretical framework for the unified neutral theory of biodiversity and an analytical solution for the distribution of the RSA both in the metacommunity (Fisher's log series) and in the local community, where there are fewer rare species. Rare species are more extinction-prone, and once they go locally extinct, they take longer to re-immigrate than do common species. Contrary to recent assertions, we show that the analytical solution provides a better fit, with fewer free parameters, to the RSA distribution of tree species on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, than the lognormal distribution.     

供应链管理下批发价格依赖性的补偿策略理论

在文献[1]中研究了供应链管理下批发价格依赖性的补偿策略理论,其中的推导和结论的具体表述不尽正确,给出了其结论的正确表述;在批发价格与产品的订购量相关且产品的市场需求量是随机变量的情况下,探讨了补偿策略受产品批发价格的定价机制的影响;获得了供应链管理下批发价格依赖性的补偿策略理论模型,并在产品的市场需求量服从均匀分布的情形下对理论模型进行了均衡分析和灵敏度分析;指出了产品订购量、补偿价格与产品需求、批发价格的内在关系,为企业决策提供了有益的分析方法。     

Helium isotopic evidence for episodic mantle melting and crustal growth

The timing of formation of the Earth's continental crust is the subject of a long-standing debate, with models ranging from early formation with little subsequent growth, to pulsed growth, to steadily increasing growth. But most models do agree that the continental crust was extracted from the mantle by partial melting. If so, such crustal extraction should have left a chemical fingerprint in the isotopic composition of the mantle. The subduction of oceanic crust and subsequent convective mixing, however, seems to have largely erased this record in most mantle isotopic systems (for example, strontium, neodymium and lead). In contrast, helium is not recycled into the mantle because it is volatile and degasses from erupted oceanic basalts. Therefore helium isotopes may potentially preserve a clearer record of mantle depletion than recycled isotopes. Here I show that the spectrum of 4He/3He ratios in ocean island basalts appears to preserve the mantle's depletion history, correlating closely with the ages of proposed continental growth pulses. The correlation independently predicts both the dominant 4He/3He peak found in modern mid-ocean-ridge basalts, as well as estimates of the initial 4He/3He ratio of the Earth. The correspondence between the ages of mantle depletion events and pulses of crustal production implies that the formation of the continental crust was indeed episodic and punctuated by large, potentially global, melting events. The proposed helium isotopic evolution model does not require a primitive, undegassed mantle reservoir, and therefore is consistent with whole mantle convection.     

SAR11 clade dominates ocean surface bacterioplankton communities

The most abundant class of bacterial ribosomal RNA genes detected in seawater DNA by gene cloning belongs to SAR11-an alpha-proteobacterial clade. Other than indications of their prevalence in seawater, little is known about these organisms. Here we report quantitative measurements of the cellular abundance of the SAR11 clade in northwestern Sargasso Sea waters to 3,000 m and in Oregon coastal surface waters. On average, the SAR11 clade accounts for a third of the cells present in surface waters and nearly a fifth of the cells present in the mesopelagic zone. In some regions, members of the SAR11 clade represent as much as 50% of the total surface microbial community and 25% of the subeuphotic microbial community. By extrapolation, we estimate that globally there are 2.4 x 10(28) SAR11 cells in the oceans, half of which are located in the euphotic zone. Although the biogeochemical role of the SAR11 clade remains uncertain, these data support the conclusion that this microbial group is among the most successful organisms on Earth.     

Helium solubility in olivine and implications for high 3He/4He in ocean island basalts

High 3He/4He ratios found in ocean island basalts are the main evidence for the existence of an undegassed mantle reservoir. However, models of helium isotope evolution depend critically on the chemical behaviour of helium during mantle melting. It is generally assumed that helium is strongly enriched in mantle melts relative to uranium and thorium, yet estimates of helium partitioning in mantle minerals have produced conflicting results. Here we present experimental measurements of helium solubility in olivine at atmospheric pressure. Natural and synthetic olivines were equilibrated with a 50% helium atmosphere and analysed by crushing in vacuo followed by melting, and yield a minimum olivine-melt partition coefficient of 0.0025 +/- 0.0005 (s.d.) and a maximum of 0.0060 +/- 0.0007 (s.d.). The results indicate that helium might be more compatible than uranium and thorium during mantle melting and that high 3He/4He ratios can be preserved in depleted residues of melting. A depleted source for high 3He/4He ocean island basalts would resolve the apparent discrepancy in the relative helium concentrations of ocean island and mid-ocean-ridge basalts.     

基于地理坐标参数的SAR图像自动概略配准法

提出了一种新的基于地理坐标参数的SAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar)图像自动概略配准方法.该方法利用SAR图像的地理坐标(经纬度)参数,用多项式拟合主辅图像中像元的地理坐标随其图像坐标的变化,首先得到主图像中心像元地理坐标值,然后在辅图像中找到某个像元,其地理坐标等于主图像中心像元的地理坐标,此辅图像中像元的图像坐标与主图像中心像元的图像坐标之差即为概略配准的偏移量.用真实的SAR数据研究证明,本文提出的方法运算速度快,配准精度高.