Carl du Prel (1839–1899): explorer of dreams, the soul, and the cosmos

Nineteenth-century spiritism was a blend of religious elements, the philosophy of mind, science and popular science and contacts with extraterrestrials were a commonplace phenomenon during spiritistic séances. Using the example of Carl du Prel (1839–1899) I show how his comprehensive mystic philosophy originated in a theory of extraterrestrial life. Carl du Prel used a Darwinian and monistic framework, theories of the unconscious and a Neo-Kantian epistemology to formulate a philosophy of astronomy and extraterrestrial life. He claimed that the mechanism of Darwinian selection is responsible for the distribution of stars and the orbits of the planets. In his speculations on the nature of extraterrestrial life he used the concept of organ projection to argue that technical solutions on earth will be realized organically on other planets and claimed that superior extraterrestrials have quantitatively and qualitatively different senses and thus different forms of intuition. A comparison with Camille Flammarion, spiritist and populariser of astronomy, demonstrates the contextual complexities of spiritism. In contrast to du Prel’s sober Neo-Kantian philosophical speculations, Flammarion was a late proponent of a French esoteric tradition that was rooted in romantic socialism, painted grand cosmological vistas and emphasized reincarnation. I put forward the hypothesis that current discourses on extraterrestrial life are affected by the spiritist tradition mainly through the ‘Golden Age’ science fiction literature of the 1940s and 50s and its successors. However, neither Carl du Prel nor Camille Flammarion contributed significantly to this tradition, which is mainly shaped by the psychical research of J. B. Rhine.     

Reception and discovery: the nature of Johann Wilhelm Ritter’s invisible rays

Ultraviolet radiation is generally considered to have been discovered by Johann Wilhelm Ritter in 1801. In this article, we study the reception of Ritter’s experiment during the first decade after the event—Ritter’s remaining lifetime. Drawing on the attributional model of discovery, we are interested in whether the German physicists and chemists granted Ritter’s observation the status of a discovery and, if so, of what. Two things are remarkable concerning the early reception, and both have to do more with neglect than with (positive) reception. Firstly, Ritter’s observation was sometimes accepted as a fact but, with the exception of C. J. B. Karsten’s theory of invisible light, it played almost no role in the lively debate about the nature of heat and light. We argue that it was the prevalent discourse based on the metaphysics of Stoffe that prevented a broader reception of Ritter’s invisible rays, not the fact that Ritter himself made his findings a part of his Naturphilosophie. Secondly, with the exception of C. E. Wünsch’s experiments on the visual spectrum, there was no experimental examination of the experiment. We argue that theorizing about ontological systems was more common than experimenting, because, given its social and institutional situation, this was the appropriate way of contributing to physics. Consequently, it was less clear in 1810 than in 1801 what, if anything, had been discovered by Ritter.     

Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on US Equity Prices: 2009–2013

Returns of several US equity exchange‐traded funds on the days of major macroeconomic announcements are examined for the period of January 2009 to July 2013. The ARMA+GARCH model with external linear regression terms that describe announcement events and their surprises is used. It is found that mean daily returns may be notably higher on the announcement days than those for the buy‐and‐hold strategy, though their difference may be not statistically significant. The ISM Manufacturing Reports, Non‐Farm Payrolls, International Trade Balance, Index of Leading Indicators, Housing Starts, and Jobless Claims turn out to be the most statistically significant factors in the model. Three trading strategies that realize daily returns on the various macroeconomic announcement days are compared with the buy‐and‐hold strategy. The choice of announcements with statistically significant regression coefficients yields higher mean daily returns and better Sharpe ratios but possibly lower compound returns. Transaction costs may significantly affect profitability of these trading strategies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On Forecasting Conflict in the Sudan: 2009–2012

This paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out‐of‐sample period 2009–2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000–2008 monthly data. The model that includes previous month's wheat price performs better than a similar model which does not include past wheat prices (the univariate model). Both models did not perform well in forecasting conflict in a neighborhood of the 2012 ‘Heglig crisis’. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ptolemy and the meta-helikôn

In his Harmonics, Ptolemy constructs a complex set of theoretically ‘correct’ forms of musical scale, represented as sequences of ratios, on the basis of mathematical principles and reasoning. But he insists that their credentials will not have been established until they have been submitted to the judgement of the ear. They cannot be audibly instantiated with the necessary accuracy without the help of specially designed instruments, which Ptolemy describes in detail, discussing the uses to which each can be put and cataloguing its limitations. The best known of these instruments is the monochord, but there are several more complex devices. This paper discusses one such instrument which is known from no other source, ancient or modern, whose design was prompted by the geometrical construction known as the helikôn. It has several remarkable peculiarities. I examine its design, its purposes, and the merits and shortcomings which Ptolemy attributes to it. An appendix describes an instrument I have built to Ptolemy’s specifications (possibly the first of its kind since the second century bc), in an attempt to find out how satisfactorily such a bizarre contraption will work; and it explains how various practical problems can be resolved.     

US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010

Recent literature has suggested that macroeconomic forecasters may have asymmetric loss functions, and that there may be heterogeneity across forecasters in the degree to which they weigh under‐ and over‐predictions. Using an individual‐level analysis that exploits the Survey of Professional Forecasters respondents’ histogram forecasts, we find little evidence of asymmetric loss for the inflation forecasters. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Setting up a Discipline: Conflicting Agendas of the Cambridge History of Science Committee, 1936–1950

Traditionally the domain of scientists, the history of science became an independent field of inquiry only in the twentieth century and mostly after the Second World War. This process of emancipation was accompanied by a historiographical departure from previous, ‘scientistic’ practices, a transformation often attributed to influences from sociology, philosophy and history. Similarly, the liberal humanists who controlled the Cambridge History of Science Committee after 1945 emphasized that their contribution lay in the special expertise they, as trained historians, brought to the venture. However, the scientists who had founded the Committee in the 1930s had already advocated a sophisticated contextual approach: innovation in the history of science thus clearly came also from within the ranks of scientists who practised in the field. Moreover, unlike their scientist predecessors on the Cambridge Committee, the liberal humanists supported a positivistic protocol that has since been criticized for its failure to properly contextualize early modern science. Lastly, while celebrating the rise of modern science as an international achievement, the liberal humanists also emphasized the peculiar Englishness of the phenomenon. In this respect, too, their outlook had much in common with the practices from which they attempted to distance their project.     

Concepts, anomalies and reality: a response to Bloor and Fehér

In this article I respond to the defences of the Strong Programme put forward by David Bloor and Márta Fehér in this issue. I dispute the claim that it is attention to only limited parts of the Strong Programme framework that allows me to argue that this approach: (i) leads to weak idealism, (ii) undermines the idea that theories have varying levels of instrumental success, and (iii) challenges the theoretical claims of scientific actors. Rather, I argue that these problematic positions are entailed by the constructionist tenets at the core of the Strong Programme.     

Sources of error in forecasts and expectations: U.K. economic models, 1984–8

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the sources of error in forecasts for the UK economy published over a recent four-year period by four independent groups. This analysis rests on the archiving at the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau of the original forecasts together with all their accompanying assumptions and adjustments. A method of decomposing observed forecast errors so as to distinguish the contributions of forecaster and model is set out; the impact of future expectations treated in a ‘model-consistent’ or ‘rational’ manner is specifically considered. The results show that the forecaster's adjustments make a substantial contribution to forecast performance, a good part of which comes from adjustments that bring the model on track at the start of the forecast period. The published ex-ante forecasts are usually superior to pure model-based ex-post forecasts, whose performance indicates some misspecification of the underlying models.     

Publishing and the classics: Paley’s Natural theology and the nineteenth-century scientific canon

This article seeks a new way to conceptualise the ‘classic’ work in the history of science, and suggests that the use of publishing history might help avoid the antagonism which surrounded the literary canon wars. It concentrates on the widely acknowledged concept that the key to the classic work is the fact of its being read over a prolonged period of time. Continued reading implies that a work is able to remain relevant to later generations of readers, and, although some of this depends upon the openness of the original text, much more depends on the actions of subsequent publishers and editors in repackaging the work for later audiences.This is illustrated through an examination of the long publishing history of William Paley’s Natural theology (1802). Over the course of the century, Natural theology was read as a work of gentlemanly natural theology, as a work which could be used in a formal or informal education in science, and as a work of Christian apologetic. These transformations occurred because of the actions of the later publishers and editors who had to make the work suit the current interests of the literary marketplace. Comparisons are made to Constitution of man, Vestiges of the natural history of creation and Origin of species.