A statistical inference for generalized Rayleigh model under Type-Ⅱ progressive censoring with binomial removals

This paper considers the parameters and reliability characteristics estimation problem of the generalized Rayleigh distribution under progressively Type-Ⅱ censoring with random removals,that is,the number of units removed at each failure time follows the binomial distribution.The maximum likelihood estimation and the Bayesian estimation are derived.In the meanwhile,through a great quantity of Monte Carlo simulation experiments we have studied different hyperparameters as well as symmetric and asymmetric loss functions in the Bayesian estimation procedure.A real industrial case is presented to justify and illustrate the proposed methods.We also investigate the expected experimentation time and discuss the influence of the parameters on the termination point to complete the censoring test.     

Statistical analysis of generalized exponential distribution under progressive censoring with binomial removals

The estimation of generalized exponential distribution based on progressive censoring with binomial removals is presented,where the number of units removed at each failure time follows a binomial distribution.Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters and their confidence intervals are derived.The expected time required to complete the life test under this censoring scheme is investigated.Finally,the numerical examples are given to illustrate some theoretical results by means of Monte-Carlo simulation.     

Semiparametric analysis of isotonic errors-in-variables regression models with randomly right censored response

This paper considers the estimation of a semiparametric isotonic regression model when the covariates are measured with additive errors and the response is randomly right censored by a censoring time. The authors show that the proposed estimator of the regression parameter is rootn consistent and asymptotically normal. The authors also show that the isotonic estimator of the functional component, at a fixed point, is cubic root-n consistent and converges in distribution to the slope at zero of the greatest convex minorant of the sum of a two-sided standard Brownian motion and the square of the time parameter. A simulation study is carried out to investigate the performance of the estimators proposed in this article.     

Heckman-Tobit模型的半参数估计

Heckman-Tobit模型可以同时处理样本选择问题和删失数据问题,是一个重要的微观计量模型.本文根据结果变量的条件生存函数所满足的性质,提出Heckman-Tobit模型的一种半参数估计方法.这种方法通过积分的形式,有效地利用了结果变量整个条件分布的信息.在一些正则性条件下,本文证明了所提出的半参数估计量的相合性和渐近正态性.其渐近性质的成立不依赖于扰动项的具体分布.数值模拟实验的结果表明,本文的半参数估计量具有优越的有限样本性质,且当扰动项服从非正态分布时优于最大似然估计量.     

A High-Order Fully Actuated System Approach for a Class of Nonlinear Systems

This paper utilizes the high-order fully actuated (HOFA) system approach to synthesize a class of nonlinear systems. First, the original nonlinear system can be rewritten in a quasi-linear form, which is more general than other nonlinear systems, such as strict-feedback systems. Based on a rank condition, the quasi-linear system can be transformed into a canonical form. Second, a simple transformation is adopted to convert the above canonical form into the HOFA model. Once an HOFA model is derived, the authors design a controller to make the closed-loop system a constant linear system with the desired eigenstructure. Finally, a numerical example illustrates the fitness and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

     

一种基于模糊数算术运算的可靠性分析方法

可靠性是产品在规定的条件下和规定的时间内完成规定功能的能力。传统的可靠性分析方法是基于概率论的,其失效概率通常应根据大量的第一手数据进行估计。然而,实际上不可能收集到足够多的第一手数据。因此,这些失效概率通常是通过其它领域的参考数据,根据专家的工程和经验来判断估计的,这类判断通常与主观性和模糊性密切相关。为了处理这种主观性和模糊性,需要一种基于模糊数学的可靠性分析方法。提出了一种基于三角形模糊数算术运算的可靠性分析方法,并给出了应用该方法的一些例子。结果表明,该方法可以较好地表示失效率数据中存在的不确定性,而且其计算也十分简单。     

竞争失效场合相似产品可靠性的综合评估

对小样本情形下的联合Ⅱ型截尾寿命试验进行综合分析.针对产品可能存在多种失效模式问题,建立试验数据服从独立指数分布的竞争失效模型.基于极大似然估计,利用条件矩母函数导出参数的精确分布,据此构造参数的精确置信区间.并采用Bootstrap方法给出参数的区间估计.最后,通过Monte-Carlo仿真比较估计的优良性,利用数值算例验证了本文方法的有效性和可行性.     

Fault Detection for Uncertain Delta Operator Systems with Two-Channel Packet Dropouts via a Switched Systems Approach

This paper utilizes a switched systems approach to deal with the problem of fault detection(FD) for uncertain delta operator networked control systems(NCSs) with packet dropouts and timevarying delays. Uncertainties exist in the matrices of the systems and are norm-bounded time-varying.Two parts of packet dropouts are considered in this paper: From sensors to controllers, and from controllers to actuators. Two independent Bernoulli distributed white sequences are introduced to account for packet dropouts. Then an FD filter is designed under an arbitrary switching law. Furthermore, the sufficient conditions for the NCSs under consideration that are exponentially stable in the mean-square sense and satisfy H∞ performance are obtained in terms of linear matrix inequalities(LMIs), multiple Lyapunov functions(MLF) and average dwell-time(ADT) approach. The explicit expression of the desired filter parameters is given. Finally, a numerical example verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

设备故障次数与经济更新时间

依据设备故障间隔期的概率分布,研究了设备故障次数的随机动态变化过程,建立了随机性分析的递归方程,并进一步研究了基于设备故障次数及其概率的最小费用周期更新模型,还采用一个模拟例题做了基本验算.     

Evaluating the Impacts of Virtual Organization Absorption on the Quality of Urban Private Constructions; the System Dynamics Approach

Quality compliance checking of urban private constructions in Iran follows a fragmented pattern. By considering this fragmentation along with the inherent complexities of the quality compliance checking, it becomes urgent to look closer at this mechanism to find a way for making improvements. Since there is no determination to change the existing mechanism, this study discusses the use of virtual organizations as a strategy to enhance the level of quality. To this end, according to the intended approach for developing virtual organizations, this study identifies the capabilities of this type of systems in the first step. Then, this research evaluates the impacts of virtual organization absorption on the quality of urban private constructions. In this evaluation, the paper applies the system dynamics approach as the modeling tool due to its ability to address complexities and feedback structures. The resulted dynamic model needs initial values and requires functions to be able to run the simulation. In this case, the Delphi Technique is used to extract the functions and the values. After importing the resulted values and functions into the model, the focus group is used for the validation. The result of this analysis represents the positive impacts of the virtual organization absorption in the quality compliance checking mechanism. Fifty-percent improvement in the quality level of urban private constructions after a twenty-year period is one of the results, which could be considered as an indicator of virtual organization impacts.

     

双应力恒加试验Weibull分布型产品置信可靠性评估模型

为了有效快速评估高可靠性长寿命产品在正常应力条件下的可靠性，提出了一种双应力恒加试验Weibull分布型产品置信可靠性评估模型。首先，采用加速寿命试验(accelerated life test，ALT)技术，建立广义Eyring-Weibull可靠性模型，假定试验各应力水平组合下Weibull分布的形状参数相同，且尺度参数与各应力水平组合间呈对数线性关系。其次，给出了Weibull分布定时截尾双应力恒加试验的极大似然估计(maximum likelihood estimation，MLE)方法、与似然函数相关的Fisher信息矩阵以及模型参数的渐近协方差矩阵，构造了模型参数和一些可靠性指标的渐近置信区间。最后，通过仿真算例证明了所提方法的可行性。     

双应力恒加试验Weibull分布型产品置信可靠性评估模型

为了有效快速评估高可靠性长寿命产品在正常应力条件下的可靠性,提出了一种双应力恒加试验Weibull分布型产品置信可靠性评估模型。首先,采用加速寿命试验(accelerated life test,ALT)技术,建立广义Eyring-Weibull可靠性模型,假定试验各应力水平组合下Weibull分布的形状参数相同,且尺度参数与各应力水平组合间呈对数线性关系。其次,给出了Weibull分布定时截尾双应力恒加试验的极大似然估计(maximum likelihood estimation,MLE)方法、与似然函数相关的Fisher信息矩阵以及模型参数的渐近协方差矩阵,构造了模型参数和一些可靠性指标的渐近置信区间。最后,通过仿真算例证明了所提方法的可行性。     

基于PoF模型的电子产品可靠性参数计算方法

现有的基于失效物理(physics of failure, PoF)模型的可靠性预计只能计算电子产品在寿命周期内经历单一典型任务剖面的失效时间。本文提出了一种基于失效物理模型,并利用蒙特卡罗仿真定量分析电子产品在寿命周期内实际经历多任务剖面的可靠性水平的新方法。将该方法应用于某机载电子设备的平均失效前时间(mean time to failure, MTTF)的计算,建立失效率和可靠度的时间函数,与目前国内工程实践中常用的失效率经验模型法以及设备可靠性强化试验的结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,该方法不仅可以计算可靠性参数,而且通过分析与计算过程可发现设计薄弱环节与可靠性参数的定量关系,有效指导设计改进。     

非对称时变共因失效的随机冲击-随机阈值模型

发生共因失效时,同一因素对共因部件组的影响既可能因单元而异,也可能随时间变化。针对同时存在非对称性和时变性的共因失效现象,提出“随机冲击-随机阈值”模型,统一解决非对称性、时变性两类问题,并可应用到多共因场景。与共因失效概率仅反映故障模式不同,本模型能深入分析不同原因及影响。以风力发电机为对象,在阈值分布相异,受破坏性作用的风和海浪冲击情况下,验证了模型的适用性。实例证明,“随机冲击-随机阈值”模型为解决非对称性和时变性两类问题,以及单一共因和多个共因2个场景,提供了统一的解决框架。     

加速退化试验与加速寿命试验相结合的产品可靠性评估

提出加速退化试验与加速寿命试验相结合的对高可靠长寿命产品进行快速可靠性评估与寿命预测的新方法. 在建立合适退化轨迹模型的基础上,推出产品各应力下的失效分布函数. 根据这些分布函数利用数值仿真方法产生各应力下的伪失效寿命数据,利用加速寿命试验中的寿命试验数据的处理方法进行处理,然后外推出产品在正常应力下的失效分布函数. 该方法可以避免加速退化模型的分析和建模过程,在评估结果具有一定精度的情况下减少了研究工作量. 最后的实例计算表明了本文方法的有效性.     

Global Practical Exponential Stabilization for One-Sided Lipschitz Systems with Time Delay

This paper addresses the practical stabilization problem for a class of one-sided Lipschitz nonlinear time delay systems with external disturbances. In case there is no perturbation, the exponential convergence of the observer was confirmed. When external disturbances appear in the system, a separation principle is established, and the authors show that the closed loop system is exponentially practical stable. By choosing a suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, the authors derive new sufficient conditions to guarantee the exponential stability of the systems. Finally, a physical model is performed to prove the efficiency and applicability of the suggested approach.

     

多跳筛选无线传感器网络决策融合

为了在保证传感器工作效果的同时控制系统能耗,在资源受限的无线传感器网络决策融合系统中同时引入传感器信息的多跳传输方式和筛选传输策略。在瑞利分布信道模型下,推导出该系统的最优融合规则。但该规则需要信道的实时状态信息,实用性差。为此提出基于信道统计分布信息的次优似然比融合规则,并给出了小信道信噪比情况下的简化形式。理论分析和仿真表明,次优规则性能损失较小,运算量更低,信息需要更少,符合资源受限系统的要求;同时使用筛选策略,降低了系统的传输能耗。     

Measuring Environmental Performance of Provincial Thermal Power Plants in China: A Malmquist DEA Approach with Fixed-Sum Undesirable Outputs

With the development of China’s economy, environmental pollution has become cumulatively serious. The primary source of environmental pollution is thermal power generation, which has attracted the attention of governments and academia in recent years. To effectively reduce environmental pollution, research should study how to constrain the undesirable output of thermal power plants, that is, to limit the total undesirable output of the plants to a certain fixed sum. However, few studies have suggested that these undesirable outputs should be fixed-sum outputs. Moreover, no previous research publication about thermal power plants has analyzed their environmental performance changes. To address these gaps, a novel Malmquist-DEA approach is proposed for evaluate the environmental performance of thermal power plants in this paper. This approach generalizes the equilibrium efficient frontier DEA model with fixed-sum undesirable outputs and incorporates the model into the Malmquist productivity index (MPI). The authors apply this approach to the analysis of provincial thermal power plant environmental performance in China and analyze such plants’ trends based on panel data from 2011 to 2014. The empirical research shows that the environmental performance of regional thermal power plants was positively affected by efficiency change and negatively affected by technical change. Finally, the authors provide policy suggestions based on our findings.

     

航空人-机复杂系统极值风险评估稳定性分析

针对航空人-机复杂系统极值风险评估中存在不确定性、难于验证的理论问题,建立了综合考虑“物理特性”、“随机性”和“非线性”的驾驶员-飞机系统和故障数学模型,通过大量仿真数据分析样本数量、评估次数以及优化算法选取对评估稳定性的影响。为提高极值分布中样本数据序列的拟合精度,针对综合评估模型提出一种随机自适应进化粒子群算法（random adaptive evolutionary particle swarm optimization,RAE-PSO）算法,实现了收敛速度和拟合精度的提高。提出了提高航空人-机系统风险评估稳定性、降低评估误差的方法步骤,并通过案例验证了方法的有效性。