Decadal-centennial-scale change in Asian-Pacific summer thermal contrast and solar activity

To study the temporally varying features of summer thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the adjacent ocean on decadal-centennial time scales and the links between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, we used a time series of the reconstructed Asian-Pacific oscillation index and solar irradiance over the past millennium. The results showed that thermal contrast in the Asian monsoon region has quasi-90-year, 10?C13-year, and 3?C7-year periods. On the centennial time scale, thermal contrast showed three abrupt changes, occurring in 1305?C1315, 1420?C1430, and 1625?C1635. There is a significant positive correlation between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, which is particularly strong at 250-year, 120?C160-year, 60?C70-year, and quasi-15-year periods. The three abrupt changes in thermal contrast corresponded to a significantly weakening or strengthening of solar irradiance, lagging 12?C22 years behind the solar irradiance, which possibly reflects an effect of solar irradiance on the abrupt change in Asian monsoon climate on the centennial time scale. On the decadal time scale, the abrupt change in the thermal contrast was not closely associated with solar irradiance, which implies that solar activity may not be a major factor affecting the decadal abrupt change in Asian-Pacific thermal contrast. Relative to thermal contrast, the decadal abrupt change in Northern Hemispheric annual mean surface temperature is more closely associated with solar activity, while its centennial abrupt change has a weaker relationship with solar activity.     

Early Pleistocene formation of the asymmetric east-west pattern of upper water structure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean

Surface-and subsurface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from the upper 43 m of Hole A at the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 807,which was recovered from the western Pacific warm pool during ODP Leg 130,were analyzed for stable oxygen and carbon isotopes.By comparing these results with data from ODP Site 851 in the eastern equatorial Pacific,this study has reconstructed the paleoceanographic changes in upper ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific since 2.5 Ma.During the period from 1.6-1.4 Ma,the oxygen isotopes of surface and subsurface waters were found to markedly change in the western and eastern equatorial Pacific,further confirming the final formation of the well-defined asymmetric east-west (E-W) pattern at that time.This feature was similar to the zonal temperature gradient (sea surface temperature is higher in the west and lower in the east) and the asymmetric upper water structure (thermocline depth is deeper in the west and shallower in the east) in the modern equatorial Pacific.The zonal gradient change of subsurface water δ18O was greater than that of surface water δ18O,indicating that the formation of the asymmetric E-W pattern in the equatorial Pacific should be much more related to the shoaled thermocline and markedly decreased subsurface water temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific.Moreover,since ～1.6 Ma,the carbon isotopic differences between surface and subsurface waters clearly decreased in the equatorial Pacific,and their long-term eccentricity periods changed from 400 ka to ～500 ka,reflecting the reorganization of the ocean carbon reservoir.This probably resulted from the deep water reorganization in the Southern Ocean at that time and its enhanced influence on the tropical Pacific (especially subsurface water).Our study demonstrates that the tropical ocean plays an important role in global climate change.     

Simulated analysis of summer climate on centennial time scale in eastern China during the last millennium

Using Lanczos filtered simulation results from the ECHO-G coupled ocean-atmosphere model, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal structure of temperature and precipitation on centennial time scale to examine how climate change in eastern China responded to external forcing during the last millennium. The conclusions are (1) eastern China experienced a warm-cold-warm climate transition, and the transition from the warm period to the cold period was slower than the cold to warm transition which followed it. There was more rainfall in the warm periods, and the transitional peak and valley of precipitation lag those of temperature. The effective solar radiation and solar irradiance have significant impacts on the temporal variation of both temperature and precipitation. Volcanic activity plays an important role in the sudden drop of temperature before the Present Warm Period (PWP). There is a positive correlation between precipitation and volcanic activity before 1400 A.D., and a negative relationship between the two thereafter. The concentration of greenhouse gases increases in the PWP, and the temperature and precipitation increase accordingly. (2) The spatial pattern of the first leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of temperature on centennial time scale is consistent with that on the inter-annual/inter-decadal (IA-ID) time scales; namely, the entirety of eastern China is of the same sign. This pattern has good coherence with effective solar radiation and the concentrations of greenhouse gases. The first leading EOF mode of precipitation on centennial time scale is totally different from that on the IA-ID time scales. The first leading mode of centennial time scale changes consistently over the entirety of eastern China, while the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are the opposite to the rest of eastern China is the leading spatial pattern on IA-ID time scale. The distribution of precipitation on centennial time scale is affected by solar irradiance and greenhouse gas concentrations.     

Late quaternary glacial cycle and precessional period of clay mineral assemblages in the western pacific warm pool

Variability of clay mineral assemblages in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) over the past 370 ka shows the prominent glacial-interglacial cyclicity. Smectite (62%?C91%) is the dominant clay mineral, with decreased contents during interglacials while increased in glacials. In contrast, variations in chlorite (4%?C21%), illite (4%?C12%), and kaolinite (2%?C10%) share a similar pattern with higher contents during interglacials than glacials, mirroring to that of smectite. The results indicate that the smectite-dominated clay minerals derive mainly from the river detrital inputs of New Guinea. The glacial-interglacial cycle of clay mineral assemblages well correspond to the fluctuation of sea level. When the sea level was low, the river materials can travel more easily across the narrow shelf off the island of New Guinea, inject directly into the subsurface currents flowing westwards, then merge into the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC), and eventually deposit on the central part of WPWP. Precessional periods of the smectite content indicate the intensity of mechanical erosion in its provenance of New Guinea, responding to the river runoff and precipitation, and this could also be linked to the meridional migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).     

Anomalous activity of East Asian winter monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTA

The relationship between the anomalous East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) activity and the tropical Pacific SST anomalies has been identified using the results of 40-year integration of the IAP CGCM1 model and 10-year observational data. In the strong EAWM year, the western and central Pacific are dominated by positive SST anomalies while the eastern Pacific is negative ones. In the weak EAWM year, the SSTA pattern is quite different and shows El Nino-like SST anomalies. The strong EAWM activity tends to create extra easterly flow to the east and extra westerly flow to the west of the warm SSTA region over the equatorial western and central Pacific, thus leading to the enhancement of convergence and convection of the flow in this region and favorable to the maintenance and development of such an SSTA pattern. On the other hand, the warm SST anomaly over the western and central Pacific, as a forcing, may lead to a specific pattern of the northern extratropical atmosphere, which is favorable to the strong EAWM activity. The tropical Pacific SSTA pattern related closely to the strong EAWM activity differs significantly from that of the La Nina year.     

A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model

To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and 20th century global warming (20CW), six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. This model was developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale, except for at mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. However, the magnitude of the warming is weaker than that in the 20th century. The warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is stronger than that in the Southern Hemisphere. The LIA cooling is also evident on a global scale, with a strong cooling over the high Eurasian continent, while the cooling center is over the Arctic domain. Both the MWP and the 20CW experiments exhibit the strongest warming anomalies in the middle troposphere around 200?C300 hPa, but the cooling center of the LIA experiment is seen in the polar surface of the Northern Hemisphere. A comparison of model simulation against the reconstruction indicates that model??s performance in simulating the surface air temperature changes during the warm periods is better than that during the cold periods. The consistencies between model and reconstruction in lower latitudes are better than those in high latitudes. Comparison of the inter-annual variability mode of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall during the MWP, LIA and 20CW reveals a similar rainfall anomalies pattern. However, the time spectra of the principal component during the three typical periods of the last millennium are different, and the quasi-biannual oscillation is more evident during the two warm periods. At a centennial time scale, the external mode of the EASM variability driven by the changes of effective solar radiation is determined by the changes of large scale land-sea thermal contrast. The rainfall anomalies over the east of 110°E exhibit a meridional homogeneous change pattern, which is different from the meridional out-of-phase change of rainfall anomalies associated with the internal mode.     

Signal propagations and linkages of subsurface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean

The propagation characteristics of signals along different zonal-time profiles are analyzed using surface and subsurface temperature anomalies over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans. Analyses show that there are intrinsic relationships between El Nio events in the eastern equatorial Pacific and dipole events in the equatorial Indian Ocean. In the region of tropical North Pacific between the equator and 16°N, there is a circle of propagation of subsurface temperature anomalies. El Nio events only happen when the warm subsurface signals reach the eastern equatorial Pacific. Dipole events are characterized when a warm subsurface signal travels along off-equatorial Indian Ocean to the western boundary. From these analyses, we believe that subsurface temperature anomalies can be considered to be the oceanographic early signal to forecast El Nio events in Pacific Ocean and dipole events in Indian Ocean, respectively.     

Astronomically modulated late Pliocene equatorial Pacific climate transition and Northern Hemisphere ice sheet expansion

The equatorial Pacific underwent a significant climate transition during the late Pliocene, which is characterized by cooling of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and formation of a marked SST gradient between the eastern and western equatorial Pacific. Moreover, this transition was nearly synchronous with the late Pliocene Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Probing the relationship among solar insolation, low and high latitude processes is the key to unravel the mechanism of this climate transition. A se...     

An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate

The thermal structure and composition of the atmosphere is determined fundamentally by the incoming solar irradiance. Radiation at ultraviolet wavelengths dissociates atmospheric molecules, initiating chains of chemical reactions-specifically those producing stratospheric ozone-and providing the major source of heating for the middle atmosphere, while radiation at visible and near-infrared wavelengths mainly reaches and warms the lower atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Thus the spectral composition of solar radiation is crucial in determining atmospheric structure, as well as surface temperature, and it follows that the response of the atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance depends on the spectrum. Daily measurements of the solar spectrum between 0.2?μm and 2.4?μm, made by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instrument on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite since April 2004, have revealed that over this declining phase of the solar cycle there was a four to six times larger decline in ultraviolet than would have been predicted on the basis of our previous understanding. This reduction was partially compensated in the total solar output by an increase in radiation at visible wavelengths. Here we show that these spectral changes appear to have led to a significant decline from 2004 to 2007 in stratospheric ozone below an altitude of 45?km, with an increase above this altitude. Our results, simulated with a radiative-photochemical model, are consistent with contemporaneous measurements of ozone from the Aura-MLS satellite, although the short time period makes precise attribution to solar effects difficult. We also show, using the SIM data, that solar radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase with solar activity. Currently there is insufficient observational evidence to validate the spectral variations observed by SIM, or to fully characterize other solar cycles, but our findings raise the possibility that the effects of solar variability on temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations.     

Dust direct radiative effects on the earth-atmosphere system over east Asia: Early spring cooling and late spring warming

Focusing on three dust storms occurring in spring 2001,we developed a detailed aerosol parameterization scheme and integrated it in a radiative transfer model to characterize possible impacts of solar altitude angle on dust direct radiative effects over China desert regions and the North Pacific,using actual daily solar altitude angles.Increasing solar altitude angle from early spring (or winter) to late spring (or summer) leads to increase of positive clear sky radiative forcing,and decrease of negative radiative forcing due to dust aerosols at the top of the atmosphere.Because solar altitude angle increases from early to late spring,dust-clear sky radiative forcing may change from negative to positive at the top of atmosphere,showing a change from cooling to heating of the earth-atmosphere system over high-albedo deserts and nearby regions.Over low-albedo ocean negative clear sky radiative forcing by dust may decrease,suggesting a change from strong to weak cooling on the earth-atmosphere system.The impacts of solar altitude angle on cloudy sky radiative forcing due to dust are similar to those of clear sky.Impacts of low cloud on dust radiative forcing are the same as increasing surface albedo.This causes the transition of dust cooling effects into heating effects over deserts to occur earlier,and causes decrease of negative radiative forcing over the ocean and even cause a change from weak negative radiative forcing to weak positive forcing over local areas.Even in the same East Asian desert regions and nearby areas,the strength and sign of the radiative forcings depend on storm dates and thus solar altitude angle.The nearer to early spring (or winter) a dust storm occurs,the easier it leads to negative radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere,which indicates cooling effects on the earth-atmosphere system.In contrast,the nearer to late spring (or summer) a dust storm occurs,the easier it leads to positive radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere,showing heating effects.Over East Asian deserts and nearby regions,dust layers may be regarded as cooling sources in early spring (winter) and warming sources in late spring (summer).     

Prediction of decadal variability of sea surface temperature by a coupled global climate model FGOALS_gl developed in LASG/IAP

A decadal climate prediction was performed by a coupled global climate model FGOALS_gl developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) within the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),Chinese Academy of Sciences.First,an Incremental Analysis Updates(IAU) scheme was applied to assimilate surface and subsurface ocean temperature and salinity fields derived from oceanic objective analysis data,for the initialization of the ocean component of the model.Starting from the initialized states,hindcast integrations were performed with the specified historical solar cycle variations,concentrations of greenhouse gasses and sulfate aerosol,following the standard 20C3M scenario used in phase three of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3).Based on the hindcast integrations,we performed forecast integrations under the radiative forcing of the A1B scenario in the CMIP3.Compared with the 20C3M run,the hindcast integrations have a much higher ability to simulate the decadal variability of SST(Sea Surface Temperature) in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and mid-latitude northeastern Pacific.This suggests that the ocean initialization is able to enhance the model skill in the regions with large decadal variability.The forecast integrations suggest that the SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific has reached its trough phase,and will gradually increase in the following 10-15 years.Meanwhile,the global mean surface temperature predicted by the forecast integrations increases slower than that projected by the A1B scenario run over 2000-2010,but faster than the latter after that.     

The wavelet analysis of satellite sea surface temperature in the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean

Using wavelet transform, the sea surface temperature (SST) during the period of 1982–1999 of the South China Sea and the equatorial Pacific, from datasets of NOAA/AVHRR, was analyzed. It is shown that there are 4- and 8-year interannual oscillations in the eastern equatorial Pacific and 8-year interannual oscillation in the western equatorial Pacific. In terms of attractive time-frequency localization and multi-scale properties of wavelet transform, as shown by the Morlet wavelet, it is found that an in-phase coupling oscillation occurs between the SCS and the equatorial Pacific. The SST changes of SCS will have echoed every event of EI Niño (abnormally warm) and La Niño (abnormally cold) in the equatorial Pacific. There is a positive correlation between the SCS and the western equatorial Pacific in the 8-year time-scale. Evidence is presented that the SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific influence the SST of the SCS.     

Occurrence of two types of El Nin?o events and the subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific

The relationships between the evolution of two types of El Ni?o events and the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly(SOTA) in the equatorial Pacific are compared in this study. The results show that both types of El Ni?o are negatively correlated to the SOTA in the equatorial western Pacific, but relationships are different in different phases of El Ni?o. Furthermore, the occurrence of different types of El Ni?o is related to different features of the equatorial thermocline, e.g. its zonal gradient, significant variation area, amplitude and duration of thermocline oscillation. The propagation of SOTA in the equator plays an important role during the evolution of both types of El Ni?o, but shows dramatic differences in intensity, duration and phase reverse of warm SOTA. Moreover, the pathways of SOTA signal are different between these two types of El Ni?o. The dominant pathway in the life cycle of Eastern Pacific(EP)-El Ni?o lies on the equator and to its north, but there is no loop to the south of the equator. In contrast, the dominant pathway in Central Pacific(CP)-El Ni?o is located on the equator and to its south, and the propagation signal of SOTA to the north of the equator is very weak.The relationships between the zonal wind anomalies and the two types of El Ni?o are also preliminarily discussed. It is shown that EP-El Ni?o is more likely to respond to the westerly anomalies over the equatorial central and western Pacific, while CP-El Ni?o is more likely to respond to the westerly anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific and need the cooperation of easterly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific to certain extent.     

Occurrence of two types of El Niño events and the subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific

The relationships between the evolution of two types of E1 Nifio events and the subsurface ocean temperature anomaly （SOTA） in the equatorial Pacific are compared in this study. The results show that both types of E1 Nifio are negatively correlated to the SOTA in the equatorial western Pacific, but relationships are different in different phases of E1 Nifio. Furthermore, the occurrence of different types of E1 Nifio is related to different features of the equatorial thermocline, e.g. its zonal gradient, significant variation area, amplitude and duration of thermocline oscillation. The propagation of SOTA in the equator plays an important role during the evolution of both types of E1 Nifio, but shows dramatic differences in intensity, duration and phase reverse of warm SOTA. Moreover, the pathways of SOTA signal are different between these two types of E1 Nifio. The dominant pathway in the life cycle of Eastern Pacific （EP）-E1 Nifio lies on the equator and to its north, but there is no loop to the south of the equator. In contrast, the dominant pathway in Central Pacific （CP）-E1 Nifio is located on the equator and to its south, and the propagation signal of SOTA to the north of the equator is very weak. The relationships between the zonal wind anomalies and the two types of E1 Nifio are also preliminarily discussed. It is shown that EP-E1 Nifio is more likely to respond to the westerly anomalies over the equatorial central and western Pacific, while CP-E1 Nifio is more likely to respond to the westerly anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific and need the cooperation of easterly anomalies over the equa- torial eastern Pacific to certain extent.     

Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes

Time series of solar radiation and north Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) index were used to analyze their causality relationship with various periodic oscillations in reconstructed millennial global-mean temperature series. The three long-term periods of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent Global Warming Period (GWP) were distinct in the temperature series. 21-year, 65-year, 115-year and 200-year oscillations were derived from the temperature series after removing three long-term climatic temperatures. The phases of temperature oscillations significantly lagged behind oceanic SST and solar radiation variability. The recent decadal warm period was caused by the quasi-21-year temperature oscillation. At this century-cross period, the four oscillations reached their peaks simultaneously, which did not occur during the last millennium. Based on the long-term trend during the GWP and the four periodic oscillations, global-mean temperature is expected to drop to a new cool period in the 2030s and then a rising trend would be towards to a new warm period in the 2060s.     

Links between annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability

Climate variability exists at all timescales-and climatic processes are intimately coupled, so that understanding variability at any one timescale requires some understanding of the whole. Records of the Earth's surface temperature illustrate this interdependence, having a continuum of variability following a power-law scaling. But although specific modes of interannual variability are relatively well understood, the general controls on continuum variability are uncertain and usually described as purely stochastic processes. Here we show that power-law relationships of surface temperature variability scale with annual and Milankovitch-period (23,000- and 41,000-year) cycles. The annual cycle corresponds to scaling at monthly to decadal periods, while millennial and longer periods are tied to the Milankovitch cycles. Thus the annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability together represent the response to deterministic insolation forcing. The identification of a deterministic control on the continuum provides insight into the mechanisms governing interannual and longer-period climate variability.     

南京地区夏季暴雨年际变化的主要模态及其与大气环流的联系

EEMD(集合经验模态分解)方法在处理非线性及非平稳时间序列时表现出了很大的优势和应用潜力。利用EEMD方法研究南京地区夏季暴雨年际变化周期,对55年(1946-2000)的南京地区夏季暴雨频数进行分解,分别得到一系列模式,其中包含有2-3年周期分量和7年周期分量,而且2-3年周期分量幅度较大,变化特征与暴雨频数原始数据变化具有很高的相似性。不同于传统方法,EEMD方法给出了暴雨频数在不同时间尺度上各自分离的变化特征.这两种时间变化模态对应于不同的200hPa环流型,前者主要作用区域在南亚和欧亚大陆到西太平洋的副热带地区,而后者相关区域在西太平洋热带和亚洲中纬度地区。     

Forced response of atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium simulated by a climate system model

Variations in global atmospheric oscillations during the last millennium are simulated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. The model was driven by reconstructions of both natural forcing (solar variability and volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol). The model results are compared against proxy reconstruction data. The reconstructed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was out of phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the last millennium. During the ...     

A signature of cosmic-ray increase in AD 774-775 from tree rings in Japan

Increases in (14)C concentrations in tree rings could be attributed to cosmic-ray events, as have increases in (10)Be and nitrate in ice cores. The record of the past 3,000 years in the IntCal09 data set, which is a time series at 5-year intervals describing the (14)C content of trees over a period of approximately 10,000 years, shows three periods during which (14)C increased at a rate greater than 3‰ over 10 years. Two of these periods have been measured at high time resolution, but neither showed increases on a timescale of about 1 year (refs 11 and 12). Here we report (14)C measurements in annual rings of Japanese cedar trees from ad 750 to ad 820 (the remaining period), with 1- and 2-year resolution. We find a rapid increase of about 12‰ in the (14)C content from ad 774 to 775, which is about 20 times larger than the change attributed to ordinary solar modulation. When averaged over 10 years, the data are consistent with the decadal IntCal (14)C data from North American and European trees. We argue that neither a solar flare nor a local supernova is likely to have been responsible.     

Stable sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool over the past 1.75 million years

About 850,000 years ago, the period of the glacial cycles changed from 41,000 to 100,000 years. This mid-Pleistocene climate transition has been attributed to global cooling, possibly caused by a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, evidence for such cooling is currently restricted to the cool upwelling regions in the eastern equatorial oceans, although the tropical warm pools on the western side of the ocean basins are particularly sensitive to changes in radiative forcing. Here we present high-resolution records of sea surface temperatures spanning the past 1.75 million years, obtained from oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios in planktonic foraminifera from the western Pacific warm pool. In contrast with the eastern equatorial regions, sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool are relatively stable throughout the Pleistocene epoch, implying little long-term change in the tropical net radiation budget. Our results challenge the hypothesis of a gradual decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a dominant trigger of the longer glacial cycles since 850,000 years ago. Instead, we infer that the temperature contrast across the equatorial Pacific Ocean increased, which might have had a significant influence on the mid-Pleistocene climate transition.