Topics and trends of the on-line public concerns based on Tianya forum

Many social events spread fast through the Internet and arouse wide community discussions. Those on-line public opinions emerge into diverse topics along the time. Moreover, the strength of the topics is fluctuating. How to catch both primary topics and trend of topics over the shifting on-line discussions are not only of theoretical importance for scientific research, but also of practical importance for societal management especially in current China. To try the cutting-edge text analytic technologies to deal with unstructured on-line public opinions and provide support for social problem-solving in the big data era is worth an endeavour. This paper applies dynamic topic model （DTM） to explore the changing topics of new posts collected from Tianya Zatan Board of Tianya Club, the most influential Chinese BBS in mainland China. By analysis of the hot and cold terms trends, we catch the topics shift of main on-line concerns with illustrations of topics of school bus and environment in December of 2011. An algorithm is proposed to compute the strength fluctuation of each topic. With visualized analysis of the respective main topics in several months of 2012, some patterns of the topics fluctuation on the board are summarized.     

国外体系结构研究现状探索

近年来,体系结构研究以其在需求梳理、决策、规划预算等方面发挥的巨大作用越来越受到国内外学者的重视,但作为一门抽象与宏观的方法论,体系结构仍然存在很多难以解决的问题.为整合梳理这些问题,在前人研究的基础上,收集近3年来186篇国外体系结构文献,提取该领域会议期刊检索列表,分析研究学者合作网络、研究学校、研究方向等内容,并与前人研究结果相比较,对未来体系结构的发展作出预测.     

区间算法简介

近年来 ,国际上区间算法运用于计算科学和工程取得了一些显著成果 ,国内也开始了这方面的研究 .区间算法提出初衷是为了提高计算结果的可靠性 ,但是人们很快发现区间算法可以有更广泛的应用 ,如工程 ,金融等多方面 .区间算法对传统浮点算法进行了一个根本改革 ,它把计算的数存储为区间 ,并对这些区间进行运算 ,使避免浮点算法所产生的计算误差成为可能 .另外 ,区间算法使得区间参数能被直接包含在计算之中 ,这在实际应用里具有重要的意义 .区间算法是对浮点算法的一个有益补充 ,值得从事科技计算研究的工作者了解和应用.     

单位根检验中的Wald检验量研究：Bootstrap法VS临界值法

针对Wald临界值检验方法存在检验水平扭曲和功效低下的不足,提出了Wald检验量的Bootstrap检验方法,并从理论上证明了该方法的有效性;借助于蒙特卡罗模拟技术对两种检验方法进行对比.结果表明：在无漂移项数据生成过程中,两种方法的实际覆盖率分别为100%和72.9%,精确程度之比为33：15;在有漂移项的数据生成过程中,实际覆盖率分别为94.4%和77.8%,精确程度之比为20：15;在检验功效方面,Bootstrap方法较临界值检验具有明显的优势,尤其是在小样本下;由标准正态分布得到的临界值对其它误差分布类型缺乏稳健性.实证分析也表明由Bootstrap检验方法得到的模型更符合实际情况.因此,Bootstrap方法可以替代临界值方法进行单位根的Wald检验.     

The 2007 Census Test: a major step towards the 2011 Census

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is planning a major Census field test in 2007. It will form part of the planning and testing programme leading to up the next Census of Population for England and Wales in 2011, which will also include a Rehearsal in 2009. The 2007 Test will be a large-scale test in five local authority (LA) areas selected to reflect a range of field conditions, covering some 100,000 households in total. Within England the Test will cover parts of Bath and North East Somerset, Camden, Liverpool and Stoke-on-Trent. In Wales the Test will take place in Carmarthenshire. The selected LAs have been chosen to provide a varied cross-section of the population and types of housing that would be covered in a full census. This article sets out the main aims for the Test and describes the design and location of the sampled areas and the basis for their selection. It goes on to detail the ways (previously reported in Population Trend 1251) in which the ONS Census team and the LAs involved are working in partnership in planning the census enumeration with the long-term view of improving overall census coverage and user confidence in the results. The article notes that decisions on the topics to be covered in the 2007 Test have only recently been decided, and concludes with an overview of the qustions to be included in the 2007 Test questionnaire.     

基于网络信息的社会动力学研究

主要介绍了传染病、谣言与计算机病毒、社会标签、网络通信以及社会群体等的社会动力学研究概况,阐述了复杂网络、系统动力学、人工社会以及ACP(人工社会+计算实验+平行执行)等社会动力学研究中常用的4类研究方法,分析了社会动力学在公共安全以及电子商务等相关领域的应用状况,并强调了现有社会动力学研究过程中所遇到的一些问题.     

非参数环境生产技术建模及应用研究综述

非参数数据包络分析方法在能源与环境效率评估、污染物影子价格估计、排放权分配等领域获得了广泛应用,其建模的一个重要理论基础是环境生产技术的表征.本文对非参数环境生产技术的理论、模型及应用做了较为系统的回顾与展望.首先,从非期望产出处置方式的角度对常见的非参数环境生产技术进行总结分类,指出各类环境生产技术的关键特征和内在局限.其次,从可处置性、应用领域、污染物种类等方面,系统总结了环境生产技术的最新研究进展,对以环境生产技术为基础的应用研究的特征做了归纳.最后,指出环境生产技术未来可能的研究方向,以期推动环境生产技术相关理论研究和实践应用.     

风云二号静止气象卫星双星观测策略

风云二号卫星是我国第一代地球静止轨道气象卫星,可连续对我国及其周边地区天气变化进行实时监测,对准确进行中长期天气预报及灾害预报具有重要作用.风云二号D星发射成功,意味着两颗静止气象卫星定点在我国东、西部上空同时进行对地观测业务,复合观测模式不仅对我国天气预报、减灾防灾和地球变化监测具有重要意义,整个东南亚地区、甚至澳大利亚和非洲部分地区将获益于我国的卫星云图资料,使我国成为全球气象卫星的重要国家之一.随着科技的发展和卫星的研制、发射和运行管理技术日趋成熟,卫星的可靠性在增加、性能在提高、使用寿命在逐渐延长,应用系统拟用不同控制策略和运行模式,充分利用在轨卫星,使之更有效地为气象业务和国民经济服务.     

基于模糊层次分析的小小区性能评估

小小区的引入大幅提高了蜂窝网络的覆盖和容量,同时也带来了更复杂的无线环境。提出了一种基于改进的模糊层次分析（fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, FAHP）的小小区性能评估方法;建立了小小区层次结构模型;分析了影响小小区性能的影响因素,并结合模糊数学原理提出相应的指标测量及量化方法;改进了模糊层次分析法的权重计算方法,在此基础上得出各小小区方案性能评估结果。仿真结果表明,提出的方法能在不同的小小区配置方案中选择出最优方案,为小小区的设计与部署提供参考。     

多项式0-1规划中隐枚举算法的改进及应用

提出了一个求解多项式0-1规划问题的隐枚举算法.通过应用p次范数约束划归,多项式0-1规划问题的多个约束可以被一单一等价约束来替代.利用这一显著特性,新算法在搜寻最优解过程中,能改进探寻(fathoming)和折返(backtrack)策略以提高隐枚举法的计算效率.通过一个算例说明这个新算法的计算步骤并对随机产生的问题进行了测试,得到了较好的结果.     

2011 census coverage assessment and adjustment strategy

Every effort is made to ensure everyone is counted in a census. However, no census is perfect and some people are missed. This underenumeration does not usually occur uniformly across all geographical areas or across other sub-groups of the population such as age and sex groups. Coverage levels in censuses across the world are declining leading to an increasing need to firstly slow the decline through improved enumeration, and secondly in improved methods and data for measuring coverage. In order to achieve the mission critical aims of the 2011 Census, a coverage assessment and adjustment strategy is required. This article outlines the proposed strategy for the 2011 UK Census. The strategy is to significantly improve upon the 2001 One Number Census, and use it as a platform to develop an improved coverage assessment and adjustment methodology. The article also outlines the key areas of innovation for the 2011 strategy and the options that will be considered in order to develop the final strategy. Stakeholder management is also an important part of the strategy to ensure that key users both buy into and understand the methodology. ONS will look to build on the consultation carried out prior to the 2001 Census and widen the user base with which it engages on this important topic.     

当前我国管理科学与社会经济系统工程领域的热点和焦点

近几年我国经济／管理科学界正以承先启后、推陈出新的时代特征向经济／管理系统工程的特定领域发展。了解我国当前在发展经济／管理科学与工程中的若干热点有助于进一步开拓社会经济／管理系统工程的广阔空间。如果能在此基础上探讨我国当前在社会经济和管理中一些值得系统科学工作者为之苦心孤诣出谋划策的焦点，也许更能体现联系实际。本文拟对此综合地、提纲挈领地加以讨论。     

理性群体决策的概率集结研究

探讨如何集结多个专家的不确定性信息,以获得群体一致判断．首先分析群体理性存在的可能性;在此基础上,给出了几种集结个体概率的模型及算式,讨论了这些模型的特点,实际应用的可能性;最后,评述了Ｄａｌｋｅｙ个体概率集结不可能性定理中潜在的问题。得出几个研究的结论,并且提出了需要进一步研究的问题。     

Exploring on-line societal risk perception for harmonious society measurement

The nearly 30-year economic growth miracle brings the consequent tremendous poor-rich gap leading strong drives for social transformation in current China. Chinese top leaders have realized to increase the peoples＇ income, improve quality of life and construct a ＂harmonious society＂ as key missions especially in recent 10 years. How to measure a harmonious society is one important topic as different measures may lead to different development policies. This paper outlines over 10 indices relevant to measure a harmonious society. Some are global indicators, while some are contributed by domestic researchers and arouse debates. Most of those indicators require conducting surveys on social attitudes under micro levels, which is always time consuming with problem of data quality. As Internet technology advances provide ways to record and disseminate fresh community ideas and thoughts conveniently, detecting topics or emotions from on-line public opinions is becoming a trend or one supplement way to overcome those data acquisition problems. This paper discusses one approach to on-line societal risk perception using hot search words and BBS posts. Such a trial aims to provide another way to societal risk perception different from those in traditional socio psychology studies. Challenges are also indicated.     

防空导弹武器系统仿真导论

本文简要地介绍了系统仿真的概念,并以防空导弹武器为例重点探讨了系统仿真问题,包括技术发展历史和实际应用,仿真建模哲理,模型“验证”和“确认、有效”的基本概念,武器研制与仿真试验一体化设计问题。最后归纳出7条简要结论。本文对于其它大系统仿真都有实际参考价值。     

基于游客环境属性意愿支付的游憩承载力评价研究

游憩承载力是衡量国家森林公园利用限度的一个重要指标.然而,游憩承载力的内涵和度量方法在学术界尚未形成一个统一的认知.已有的研究多以社会承载力和工程方法测算单位时间内景区允许进入游客的数量.这种做法虽然在管理上具有一定的可操作性,但却不能准确反映承载力概念的科学内涵.文章从旅游效用最大化视角出发,构建基于景区环境属性水平的游憩承载力理论框架,并估计各种属性的承载力阈值.研究过程运用选择实验法进行问卷设计和条件logit模型进行参数估计.模型结果表明,植被覆盖率承载力阈值为78%,垃圾数量承载力阈值为3件/20 m,游客密度承载力阈值为14人/200 m~2,水的能见度承载力阈值为1.45 m.     

网络--探索复杂性的新途径

简单系统由于非线性关系可以呈现复杂行为，而复杂系统可以遵循简单规则自组形成、近年来，作为探索复杂系统结构和功能的复杂网络引起了国际科学界的高度重视，已成为数理科学、生命科学、社会科学、技术科学和管理科学的研究热点之一．论文首先介绍了在复杂网络研究方面已经取得的某些进展，从典型模型．重要概念，网络分类一直到网络结构涌现，其中也包括了作者所做的工作；然后对某些值得注意的问题做了简短的评述．     

基于加权Minkowski距离的IFS相异度度量方法

针对现有直觉模糊集合间距离度量的局限性,提出一种基于加权Minkowski距离的相异度度量方法。该度量方法适合于连续论域中集合间距离的测量,而且通过引入加权参数解决了各个属性具有不同权重的实际问题,同时克服了现有IFS距离度量的缺陷,进而解决了几个特殊直觉模糊集合之间距离度量问题。通过算例分析比较,证明了该方法在现存的距离度量方法中是比较优越的。     

基于遗传算法的区域覆盖共地面轨迹卫星星座的优化设计

讨论了使用MATLAB的遗传算法工具箱GATOOL进行区域覆盖共地面轨迹卫星星座的优化设计方法。介绍了共地面轨迹卫星星座的参数特性,讨论了使用遗传算法工具箱GATOOL进行区域覆盖共地面轨迹卫星星座优化设计的方法,针对中国区域进行了仿真设计。仿真结果表明,该类型星座能够以较少数量的卫星为我国提供良好的覆盖性能,适于我国的区域覆盖卫星通信系统采用。     

DECISION MAKING - THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY ANDNETWORK PROCESSES （AHP／ANP）

This is the first part of an introduction to multicriteria decision making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The discussion involves individual and group decisions both with the independence of the criteria from the alternatives as in the AHP and also with dependence and feedback in the entire decision structure as in the ANP. This part explains the Analytic Hierarchy Process, with examples, and presents in some detail the mathematical foundations. An exposition of the Analytic Network Process and its applications will appear in later issues of this journal. Thomas L. Saaty holds the Chair of University Professor, Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, and obtained his Ph.D. in mathematics from Yale University. Before that he was a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania for ten years. Prior to that he spent seven years at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency in the State Department in Washington, DC, that carried out the arms reduction negotiations with the Soviets in Geneva. His current research interests include decision-making, planning, conflict resolution and synthesis in the brain. As a result of his search for an effective means to deal with weapons tradeoffs at the Disarmament Agency and, more generally, with decision-making and resource allocation, Professor Saaty developed The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). He is co-developer of the software Expert Choice and of the software Super Decisions for decisions with dependence and feedback. He has authored or co-authored twelve books on the AHP/ANP. Professor Saaty has also written a number of other books that embrace a variety of topics, including Modern Nonlinear Equations, Nonlinear Mathematics, Graph Theory, The Four Color Problem, Behavioral Mathematics, Queuing Theory, Optimization in Integers, Embracing the Future and The Brain: Unraveling the Mystery of How It Works. His most recent book is Creative Thinking, Problem Solving & Decision Making. The book is a rich collection of ideas, incorporating research by a growing body of researchers and practitioners, profiles of creative people, projects and products, theory, philosophy, physics and metaphysics...all explained with a liberal dose of humor. He has published more than 300 refereed articles in a wide variety of professional journals. He has been on the editorial boards of Mathematical Reviews, Operations Research, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Mathematical and Computer Modeling, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Applied Mathematics Letters, and several others. He also served as consultant to many corporations and governments.