Participatory Demographic Scenarios Addressing Uncertainty and Transformative Change in Ethiopia

Projections on future population trends provide important decision support, however are confronted with high uncertainty. In contexts of low data quality, missing and contradicting knowledge on drivers of change, such as in many developing countries, participatory scenarios can support the quality of assumptions needed for quantitative projections. We present a scenario approach designed for contexts of uncertain and missing demographic data and illiteracy, which was successfully tested in three study sites in North-West Ethiopia. The four qualitative scenarios for 2030 supported the inter-subjective definition of assumptions for the calculations, which were again validated by members of the rural communities. We argue that the participation process has resulted in more robust and context-specific projections. The collaborative work on the local drivers of demographic change between science and society provided a valuable space for social learning, so that local stakeholders could identify the need for and scope of local mitigation or adaptation measures to demographic transformation.     

Demographic data for Europe--a review of sources

Population Trends had provided an overview of European and world demographic issues since its inception in 1975. This article covers the abundant sources of demographic data on all European countries with information on their availability in printed and electronic formats.     

A cross country review of the validation and/or adjustment of census data

This article reviews existing procedures employed by various countries in the evaluation of, and/or adjustment, either of census data, or of population estimates based upon census data. The work was carried out to ensure all potential demographic techniques are considered by the ONS for the post census evaluation process of the 2011 Census.     

面向人口属性预测的词嵌入构建方法

本文探讨如何从用户购买数据中学习出高质量词嵌入,以让模型据此实现高效的人口属性预测任务.首先分析购买数据并对其进行编码,并在此基础上构建嵌入向量生成模型,之后用样本数据训练该模型,然后用神经网络程序实现该模型,最后通过实验验证该模型的可行性和高效性.提出的模型不仅能将具有大量模态的分类特征数据转换为低维的高质量词嵌入,...     

A demographic statistics service for the 21st century

This article provides a summary of a review of the uses made of population and household statistics across government in England and Wales, setting out the policy and statistical impacts of demographic change. It looks at the broad span of government uses of population and household statistics--and what these uses imply for the qualities inherent in these statistics. The article considers alternative population definitions and refers to several ongoing projects that are aiming to enhance demographic statistics in England and Wales. Following an analysis of the key issues relating to the implementation of an improved statistical service, a series of action points for ONS emerging from the review is set out.     

The demographic situation in the European Union

This article draws selected material from the annual Yearbook on Demography (2000 edition) published by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Some key comparisons with other regions of the world are included, together with a broad picture of the demographic situation in the European Union. Topic coverage is selective.     

The changing demography of mid-life, from the 1980s to the 2000s

This article examines changes between 1984 and 2007 in the demographic and socio-economic circumstances of British men and women in mid-life. Changing living arrangements in mid-life reflect historical changes in the occurrence and timing of life events such as marriage and parenthood, as well as increased longevity. In order to place mid-life in this wider demographic context, the article first reviews changes over time in kin availability across the adult life course using the British Household Panel Survey (2001) and Understanding Society (2009). The article goes on to use data from the General Household Survey (1984-2007) to document shifts over time in living arrangements for those aged 20- 79. In the final part of the article we focus specifically on those aged between 45 and 64 and examine how their characteristics in terms of marital status, educational attainment, activity status and housing tenure have changed over the past quarter century.     

Fragmented life courses: the changing profile of Britain's ethnic populations

This article describes the potential of the Longitudinal Study to analyse different ethnic groups by broad period of entry. This is illustrated with the use of one variable (childlessness), but could be the basis for further analytical work on other variables. Each group has a unique demographic profile, which is largely explained by its migration history. Migration influences important life course transitions. Differences between more established residents (present in 1981 and 1991) and less established residents (present in 1991 only) imply that generalisations for the entire ethnic group or future generations should not be made.     

The decline of intensive intergenerational care of older people in Great Britain, 1985-1995

There are increasing concerns about the future availability of informal care for older people, particularly care by their children. This article explores past trends in the provision of informal care by children/children-in-law to their older parents/parents-in-law between 1985 and 1995 in Great Britain, using successive General Household Survey data. The article suggests that, during this period, there was a decline in co-resident intergenerational care and that this was associated with a decline in highly intensive intergenerational care. The article explores possible factors underlying these trends, in particular, demographic changes and changes in patterns of formal care for older people.     

EXISTENCE AND UNIQUENESS OF ENDEMIC STATES FOR THE AGE-STRUCTURED SEIR EPIDEMIC MODEL

An age-structured SEIR epidemic model of a vertically as well as horizontally transmitteddisease is investigated.Threshold results for the existence of endemic states are established for mostcases.Under certain conditions,uniqueness is also shown.Threshold used are explicitly computablein term of demographic and epidemiological parameters of the model.     

Which authorities are alike?

This article describes the first results from the recent revision to The ONS classification of local and health authorities of Great Britain to allow for boundary changes. For each local and health authority of Great Britain as at April 1999 it presents 'most similar' authorities as measured by a selection of 37 socioeconomic and demographic variables from the 1991 Census. These results will assist local and health authorities in identifying other appropriate authorities for comparative studies. A second article, to be published in Population Trends 99, will present the results of the analysis to identify groups of authorities in a hierarchy of new Clusters, Groups and Families for the revised classification.     

The demographic characteristics of the oldest old in the United Kingdom

Those aged 85 and over (the oldest old) are the fastest growing age group in the population of many developed countries. However it is still uncommon to find statistics and analysis of this age group in current reporting. This article draws together demographic characteristics of people aged 85 and over from various different national data sources to provide an up-to-date picture of the oldest old.     

Perceptions of Pediatric Nurses on Ethical Decision Making Processes

The purpose of this study was to determine how pediatric nurses decide on ethical issues in sample cases and how they evaluate those issues in terms of ethical principles, as well as to determine the problem-solving approaches that they recommend in this regard. Qualitative methods were used in this study and the data was collected from 100 pediatric nurses using a demographic data form and an open-ended questionnaire. The demographic data form included questions about the characteristics of nurses and their participation in decisions made about ethical issues. Whereas the open-ended questionnaire consisted of questions regarding sample cases, which were developed by the investigators using current literature. Forty-four percent of the pediatric nurses reported an attempt to solve ethical issues that they encountered through their professional experiences using personal values. On the other hand, 53 % of the pediatric nurses stated that their decisions were sometimes taken into consideration in the treatment plan of their own patients, while 49 % reported that they could not participate in decision-making regarding patients’ discharge. Seventy-six percent of the pediatric nurses did not define the ethical issues in the three sample cases. However, in other cases, most of the nurses evaluated ethical issues correctly and recommended correct approaches. No statistically significant difference was found between their educational backgrounds, professional experiences, the ethical issues that they evaluated, and the approaches recommended for problem solving. It is recommended that nurses receive more undergraduate and in-service ethics training in order to develop appropriate approaches toward the ethical issues they will encounter during their professional lives.     

Older workers' withdrawal from the labour market 1991 to 2007: impact of socio-demographic characteristics, health and household circumstances

This article presents an analysis of the withdrawal from the labour market of older workers in England and Wales between 1991 and 1995 and in England between 2002/03 and 2006/07. It examines the relationship between withdrawal from the labour market and demographic and socio-economic characteristics of older workers, their labour market status, health status, housing, household circumstances and caring commitments at the start of each period being considered.     

Living arrangements in contemporary Britain: having a partner who usually lives elsewhere and living apart together (LAT)

This article explores the subject of 'living apart together' (LAT). LAT is a relationship in which the two partners regard themselves as a couple but they are not co-residentially cohabiting. The phenomenon of 'living apart together' is difficult to measure but has become increasingly recognised in international sociological and demographic literature. However, in Great Britain there has so far been little research of this subject and no attempt, until now, to estimate its extent.     

The sizes and characteristics of the minority ethnic populations of Great Britain--latest estimates

This article presents estimates of the minority ethnic populations of Great Britain in 2000 and describes the regional distributions of the different groups. It also discusses changes in the sizes of the different minority ethnic populations during the 1990s. The paper provides information on some key demographic features of these populations at the end of the 1990s--age and sex structures, proportions born in the United Kingdom and whether children lived with their natural parents.     

Uncovering the Dynamics of the Saudi Youth Unemployment Crisis

This paper explores a systems thinking approach to the persistent and urgent issue of youth unemployment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a complex problem given the unique social contract between government and citizens in the Kingdom. Generations of government-dependent Saudi nationals have come of age in recent decades, unfit for private sector needs and unprepared for its realities. Attempts to force this population into the private workforce are futile, resisted by Saudi workers and by private sector employers. The authors present a systems map inclusive of employment trends, education, and social dynamics, whose interactions undermine employment among Saudi youth. This mental model indicates that unemployment among this particular demographic is exacerbated by increased government spending on education, and by government-initiated measures aimed at protecting Saudi nationals in the private sector. Uncovering an archetypal systems thinking relationship between major stakeholders, that of accidental adversaries, the authors present the first steps towards modeling solutions.     

Estimating the changing population of the 'oldest old'

The population of England and Wales is becoming older. This poses an increasing demand for detailed data on the size an trends of the population at the oldes ages. Using the recently released Offic for National Statistics estimates of th population aged 90 and over in England and Wales, this article shows trends in the population of the oldest old and demographic causes of the rapid increase in centenarians during the twentieth century. It also presents further validation of the ON estimates of the oldest old with estimat from other data sources.