Quasi-periodicity of temperature changes on the millennial scale

Quasi-periodicity of temperature changes on the millennial scale is found according to the proxy data both from historical documents and natural evidence in China. The auto-correlation of the temperature changes series for the last 2000 years is most significant on the 1350 a time lag. The period of 1350 a includes 4 warm/cold stages: 200～250 a warm stage, 150～200 a cold stage, 300～350 a warm stage, and 550～600 a cold stage. In contrast to the 550～600 a cold stage, the other three stages can be united in one warm dominant stage. Inferred from the 1350 a period, the 20th century warm stage belongs to the 200～250 a warm stage, which is similar to the warm stage occurring during the 570's～770's. The process of temperature change in the 20th century warm stage is similar to that of the 570's～770's. But the warming rate in the 20th century is more rapid. The temperature anomaly in the 1980's～1990's shows a greater departure from the regression equation of that between 1500's～1900's and 150's～650's. Whether it can be regarded as the forcing of human activities is worth studying further.     

Global mean temperature changes during the last millennium

A synthetic study is made on the global or hemispheric mean temperature series for the last millennium worked out by Mann et al., Jones et al., Crowley and Lowery, and Briffa. The global mean temperature series reconstructed by using proxy data at 30 sites by Wang et al. and simulations from AD 1000 to 2000 by energy balance model are described and compared with the series of others. Wang's series gives greater variability and shows the highest correlation coefficient (0.83) with the simulation results. Uncertainties in the reconstructions and simulations are discussed. The errors in reconstructing a global mean temperature series according to 30 sites as used in the research are estimated. Wang's series indicate that temperature average for the 11th century is higher than the mean of the last millennium. It infers that the Medieval Warm Period predominated to some extent over the globe. However, the 20th century is no doubt the warmest century during the last millennium.     

Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau

Amplitudes, rates, periodicities, causes and future trends of temperature variations based on tree rings for the past 2485 years on the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. The results showed that extreme climatic events on the Plateau, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Warming appeared synchronously with those in other places worldwide. The largest amplitude and rate of temperature change occurred during the Eastern Jin Event (343?C425 AD), and not in the late 20th century. There were significant cycles of 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a, 110 a and 2?C3 a in the 2485-year temperature series. The 1324 a, 800 a, 199 a and 110 a cycles are associated with solar activity, which greatly affects the Earth surface temperature. The long-term trends (>1000 a) of temperature were controlled by the millennium-scale cycle, and amplitudes were dominated by multi-century cycles. Moreover, cold intervals corresponded to sunspot minimums. The prediction indicated that the temperature will decrease in the future until to 2068 AD and then increase again.     

Reconstruction of sea surface temperature series in the last 220 years by use of reef corals in Xisha waters, South China Sea

On the basis of construction of the growth rate thermometers by use ofPorites Iutea from the northern part of the South China Sea and the hindcast sea surface temperature (SST) in the last 100 years, we reconstructed the SST series in the past 220 years in the Xisha waters and analyzed the characteristics of the climatic change of that period. The results show that the low and high SST changes in the last 220 years in the Xisha waters appeared in the stage and the quasi-periodic variation within the century scale. The range of annual SST variation in the interage was increasing. The SST values were slightly rising during the last 100 years.     

Reconstruction and analysis of time series of ENSO for the last 500 years

This paper reports the classification of ENSO into seven categories according to annual (March to February of next year) mean SST of Ni(n)o 3.4 and composite index (ΔI) for the period of 1861～2000. Categories +3, +2, and +1 denote very strong, strong and weak warm episodes (E), -3, -2, and -1 mean very strong, strong and weak cold episodes (A). Absolute SST anomalies are about 1.5 ℃, 1.0 ℃ and 0.5 ℃ respectively for the categories 3, 2, and 1 (or -3, -2, and -1). The normal years are expressed as category 0. Annual categories of ENSO are estimated on the basis of proxy data from AD 1501 to 1860. And a series of ENSO category is established for the period of 1501～2000 in conjunction with the observational data. Comparison of proxy data with observations for 1874～1973 indicates that about 80% of the El Ni(n)o years and La Ni(n)a years can be reconstructed from proxy data, and the reliability of the reconstruction is verified. Analysis of the power spectrum of the reconstructed ENSO series shows significant peaks at QBO, 3～4a (year), 5～6a, and 10a period, the former three are in accordance with the observations for the last 100 years or more. Studies on long term variability of ENSO indicates that ENSO frequency is relatively stationary during the last 500 years, including the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1550～1850) and Modern Warming Period (the 20th century). However, the frequency of E is a little higher in the 20th century and that of A is somewhat higher during the LIA.     

Key points on temperature change of the past 2000 years in China

Itisimportanttostudythetemperaturechangeduringthepast 2 0 0 0 yearsforunderstandingtheis suessuchasthegreenhouseeffectandglobalwarminginducedbyhumanactivities .Chinahasadvantagesinreconstructinghistoricalclimatechangeforitsabun dantdocumentedhistoricalrecordsandothernaturalevidenceobtainedfromtreerings ,lakesediments ,icecores ,andstalagmite .SinceDr .Chulaidafounda tiononthestudyoftemperaturechangeinChinaforthepast 5 0 0 0 years[1] ,significantprogressinthestudyoftemperaturechangeofthepast 2…     

Temperature and precipitation in Mongolia based on dendroclimatic investigations

Recent tree-ring studies in Mongolia provide evidence of unusual warming that is in agreement with large-scal reconstructed and recorded temperaturec for the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic.One Mongolian proxy record for temperature extends back over 1000 years and several others are over 350 years in length.Precipitation reconstructions based on thee rings reflect recent increases but also indicate that the increases are within the long-term range of varlations.Spectral analyses of recorded preciplta-tion data and the reconstructions support the hypotheses of quasi-solar periodicity in precipitation variation,previously suggested by others.     

Simulation of the climatic effects of natural forcings during the pre-industrial era

The MPM-2,an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,is employed to study the climate sys-tem response to natural forcings during the pre-industrial era (1000-1800 AD),with a special focus on the surface air temperature (SAT) evolution. Solar radiation and volcanism are the primary natural forcings during this period. In the MPM-2,the solar radiation forcing determines the long-term trend of the climate system change,and the volcanic forcing intensifies (weakens) this trend. Ultimately,the combination of solar and volcanic forcings dominates the long-term changes of the climate system. These results are in good agreement with other model data or temperature reconstructions. Natural forcings can well explain the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). At the large regional scale,the SAT response to natural forcings is almost coincident with that of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on MPM-2 model results,it is concluded that the global climate gradually became cold during the pre-industrial era. However,MPM-2 model results substantially correlate with recon-structed solar and volcanic forcings. Namely,to some great extent,these results strongly rely on the forcing series data we choose. Therefore,in order to accurately simulate the secular variation of the historical climate,it is very important to reconstruct well the solar radiation change and volcanic forc-ing data are well reconstructed for the past 10000 years,at least for the past 2000 years,in addition to the model improvements. The sensitivity study on the abrupt solar radiation change indicates that the increased solar radiation not only strengthens the nonlinear response of SAT,but intensifies the global hydrological cycle. At the same time,the biosphere is also affected obviously.     

Groundwater recharge and climatic change during the last 1000 years from unsaturated zone of SE Badain Jaran Desert

The history of groundwater recharge and cli-matic changes during the last 1000 years has been estimated and reconstructed using environmental chloride from un-saturated zone profde in the southeast Badain Jaran Desert,NW China. By using a steady-state model for duplicate un-saturated zone chloride profiles, the long-term recharge at the site was estimated to be 1.3 mm yr^-1. From one profde,which reached the water table, the climatic change events of 10-20 years duration were well preserved. There were 3 wet phases and 4 dry episodes during the recent 800 years ac-cording to the peaks and troughs of recharge rate calculated via chloride concentration and moisture content. There was a dry episode before 1290 AD. At ca. 1500-1530 AD, which is an important date, there was an abrupt change from drought to wet conditions. At the beginning of the 1800s, local climate changed from wet to dry occurred and subsequently dete-riorated over the past 200 years,The unsaturated profile was compared with the Guliya ice core records.The agreement of wet and dry phases from 1200 to 1900 AD is quite good,whilst trends diverged during the last 100 years.It seems that the large-scale climate difference took place between mountain regions and the desert basin in NW China during the 20th century,which closely correspond to the water table reduction of some l metre.     

High resolution stalagmite δ18O records over the past 1000 years from Dongge Cave in Guizhou

Based on MC-ICP-MS U-series dating andstable O-isotope analysis results, a 4-5 years resolution monsoon record over the past 1000 years has been established for two stalagmites from Dongge Cave, Guizhou. The high resolution oxygen isotope record serves as a proxy for variations in rainfall of Asian southwest monsoon over the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. A close relation of the δ18O record with the A^14C record from tree rings largely reflects impact of centennial-scale solar activity on the monsoon climate changes. The conspicuous decrease in the δ18O value at AD 1720 indicates an abrupt increase in monsoon rainfall, suggesting that an atmospheric-oceanic couple over the tropical Indian Ocean plays an important role in rapid increase of the Northern Hemisphere temperature over the last century.     

Reconstructing temperature change in Central East China during 601–920 AD

Using historical records on first and last frost and snow, spring cultivation, David peach blossom, autumn crop harvest, grade of sea freeze and change in northern citrus boundary, we reconstructed temperature change during 601–920 AD. The mean temperature of the winter half-year (October to April) over Central East China during this period was about −0.22°C higher than that of the present (1961–2000 AD mean). During 601–820 AD, mean temperature was about −0.52°C higher than the present. During 821–920 AD, the mean temperature was 0.42°C lower than the present. The temperature fluctuations were characterized by a maximum amplitude of 1.05°C at the centennial scale, 1.38°C at the 50–year scale, 2.02°C at the 30-year scale, and 2.3°C at the 20-year scale. There were four peaks warmer than today (601–620 AD, mean of 1°C higher temperature; 641–660 AD, 1.44°C; 701–720 AD, 0.88°C; 781–800 AD, 0.65°C). Three cold periods were in 741–760, 821–840, and 881–900 AD, the mean temperature of which was 0.37–0.87°C lower than the present.     

Northern Hemisphere forcing of climatic cycles in Antarctica over the past 360,000 years

The Milankovitch theory of climate change proposes that glacial-interglacial cycles are driven by changes in summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The timing of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere at glacial-interglacial transitions (which are known as terminations) relative to variations in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere is an important test of this hypothesis. So far, it has only been possible to apply this test to the most recent termination, because the dating uncertainty associated with older terminations is too large to allow phase relationships to be determined. Here we present a new chronology of Antarctic climate change over the past 360,000 years that is based on the ratio of oxygen to nitrogen molecules in air trapped in the Dome Fuji and Vostok ice cores. This ratio is a proxy for local summer insolation, and thus allows the chronology to be constructed by orbital tuning without the need to assume a lag between a climate record and an orbital parameter. The accuracy of the chronology allows us to examine the phase relationships between climate records from the ice cores and changes in insolation. Our results indicate that orbital-scale Antarctic climate change lags Northern Hemisphere insolation by a few millennia, and that the increases in Antarctic temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration during the last four terminations occurred within the rising phase of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. These results support the Milankovitch theory that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation triggered the last four deglaciations.     

气温变化的层次结构与未来气候变化趋势预测

用子波变换分析了Jones和Vinnikov南北半球近百年来气温资料,确定了气温变化的层次结构。结果发现,北半球在1923年前后、南半球在1939年前后发生了一次较大时间尺度的冷暖突变。提出了预测未来气候变化趋势的新思路,即根据气温变化的层次结构和不同层次的冷暖期特征时间尺度,预测未来气候变化。认为在北半球1923至2001年为大暖期,从2001年起将进入大冷期,大冷期约有77年;1991年至2001年是大暖期中相对凉爽的时期,80年代的增温事件将从1991年起趋于缓和。     

Reconstruction of temperature series of China for the last 1000 years

This paper reports a study on reconstructing temperature series for ten regions of China over the last 1000 years with a time resolution of 10 a. The regions concerned are: Northeast, North, East, South China, Taiwan, Central, Southwest, Northwest China, Xinjiang and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A variety of proxy data, such as ice core, tree-rings, stalagmites, peat, lake sediments, pollen and historical records, were validated with instrumental observations made in the last 120 years, and applied in the recon- struction of the temperature series. A temperature series for whole China is then established by aver- aging the ten regional series with a weighting proportional to the area of each region. Finally, tem- perature variations for the last 1000 years are examined, with special focus placed on the characteris- tics of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and Modern Warming (MW).     

Simulated and reconstructed winter temperature in the eastern China during the last millennium

Since the 1990s, under the auspicious impetus of two international research programs, the “Past Global Changes” (PAGES) and the “Climate Variability and Pre- dictability” (CLIVAR), massive research work has been carried out on climate and environment changes over the past 2000 years[1-3]. But majority of the studies has been centered on obtaining various kinds of climatic proxy data (such as historical documents, tree rings, ice cores, lake cores) and focused on the reconstruction of…     

A 1000-year chironomid-based salinity reconstruction from varved sediments of Sugan Lake, Qaidam Basin, arid Northwest China, and its palaeoclimatic significance

A 1000-year high-resolution （-10 years） chironomid record from varved sediments of Sugan Lake, Qaidam Basin on the northern Tibetan Plateau, is presented. The chironomid assemblages are mainly composed of the relatively high-saline-water taxa Psectrocladius barbimanus-type and Orthocladius/ Cricotopus, and the relatively low-saline-water taxa Procladius and Psectrocladius sordidellus-type. Variations in the chironomid fauna and inferred salinities suggest that over the last millennium, the Sugan Lake catchment has alternated between contrasting climatic conditions, having a dry climate during the period 990-1550 AD, a relatively humid climate during the Little Ice Age （LIA） （1550-1840 AD）, and a dry climate again from 1840 AD onwards. At the decadal to centennial scale, a wet event around 1200-1230 AD, interrupting the generally arid period （990-1550 AD）, and a dry event around 1590-1700 AD, punctuating the generally humid period （1550-1840 AD）, are clearly documented. Trends in the chironomid-based salinity time series indicate a highly unstable climate during the LIA when salinity fluctuations were of greater magnitude and higher frequency. The effective moisture evolution in the Sugan Lake catchment during the last millennium reconstructed by chironomid analysis is in broad agreement with previous palaeo-moisture data derived from other sites in arid Northwest China （ANC）. The LIA, characterized by generally humid conditions over the westerly-dominated ANC was distinctly different from that in monsoonal China, implying an ＂out-of-phase＂ relationship between moisture evolution in these two regions during the past 1000 years.     

Progress in studies of the climate of humid period and the impacts of changing precession in early-mid Holocene

Studies on the climate of humid period and the impacts of changing precession in the early-mid Holocene are reviewed in this paper. High-resolution proxy data indicated that the African Humid Period, strong summer monsoon from the Arabian Sea to South Asia, northward migration of ITCZ （Intertropical Convergence Zone） over the northern South America, and the humid period of China appeared in 10.5-5.5 kaBP, 10.0--6.0 kaBP, 10.5-5.4 kaBP, and 11.0-8.0 kaBP, respectively. Modeling studies proved that summer insolation over the Northern Hemisphere increased following the changes of precession in the early Holocene, which increased the land-sea temperature contrasts, intensified the summer monsoon circulation over the area under the influence of summer monsoon. However, in the Northern Hemisphere, and finally induced a humid climate modeling results underestimated the increase of precipitation and the degree of northward extension of monsoon rain belt compared with palaeo-environmental data. These discrepancies between the modeling results and the palaeo-environmental data may be associated with the changes of North Atlantic circulation, sea ice and vegetation covers. Moreover, climate of the humid period was not stable, in which several droughts were inlaid on centennial scale. In this review, perspectives for further studies of the climate change of the humid period in the early-mid Holocene are also proposed. demy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier Limited and Science in China Press. All rights reserved.     

Tree-ring-based May–July mean temperature history for Lüliang Mountains,China, since 1836

As a consequence of recent global warming and its social impact, regional climate change is attracting an increasing amount of attention from scientists. A May-July temperature proxy extending back to 1836 was developed from tree-ring width of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) found in the middle Lüliang Mountains, northern China. Correlations with climatic data from six nearby meteorological stations range from −0.58 to −0.65, indicating a strong response of tree-ring index to May-July mean tem-peratures, which were subsequently reconstructed. The reconstruction captures 45% (F=38.474, P<0.001) of the regional variance in the instrumental data over the calibration period 1955–2003. Reconstructed warm and cold periods were verified by additional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring data from northern China. In addition, the reconstruction was significantly correlated with May-July mean temperatures from 13 other meteorological stations in northern China, suggesting that our reconstruction is also representative of north-central China. The warming trend during the second half of the 20th century is seen in the reconstruction, but only the 1994–2002 mean temperature seems unprecedented over the whole reconstructed period.     

Spatial and temporal variations of light rain events over China and the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Based on observed daily precipitation data, monthly gridded radiosonde upper air temperature and sea surface temperature data from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, monthly surface air temperature from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data, this study investigates the spatial and temporal variations of light rain events over China and the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during 1961-2010, and discusses the relationship between the change of light rain events and atmospheric stability, sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. The light rain events over East China display a decreasing trend of 3.0%/10 a in summer and winter half years. Over Northwest China, an increasing trend of 4.1%/10 a is found in winter half years, but there is no trend in summer half years. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, it is found that the first two principal components of light rain events over the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere show long time scale variations in summer and winter half years. The first EOF modes (EOF1s) for summer and winter half years both depict a long-term increase in light rain events over North America and Southern Europe as well as Northwest China (except in summer half years), and a long-term decrease over most of the Eurasia (Central Europe, Eastern Europe, North Asia and East China). The second EOF mode (EOF2) for summer half year shows that light rain events increase over North America, Southern Europe and South China, but decrease over Eurasia north of 45°N from 1961 to early 1980s, while the trends reverse from late 1980s to 2010. The second EOF mode (EOF2) for winter half years indicates that light rain events increase over North America and South and North China, but decrease over Eurasia north of 40°N from 1961 to early 1980s, while the trends reverse from late 1980s to 2009. Correlation analysis and linear regression analysis suggest that EOF1s may be related to the change in atmospheric static stability associated with global warming, and EOF2s are possibly linked to the AMO.     

New evidence for the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau as a pilot region of climatic fluctuation in China

Over 40 a observed temperature data in 172 stations in China and historical proxy data were analyzed. Evidence suggested that during 1980–1994, the warmest year appeared first in southeastern part of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (henceforth SETP) and then gradually spread northwards and eastwards to eastern China. The climatic change on century time scale in recent 600 a shows 3 relatively warm and clod stages in China. Each warm and cold stage appeared first in Tibet Plateau (henceforth TP) and then in the Qilian Mountains, then in the eastern parts of China. The warm and cold stages in TP were 10–60 a earlier than in the eastern China. The facts show that TP is a pilot region of climatic fluctuation in China on the time scale shorter than 10³a.