企业经营环境危机及定量预测研究

系统地描述了企业经营环境的主要内容，在对企业经营环境危机定性分析的基础上，重点运用德尔菲法、概率分析法以及宏观景气模型，对企业宏观环境危机进行了定量预测，提出了对经营环境危机评估的方法。     

基于GRA和AHP的GRNN神经网络零件失效概率预测方法

为了提高对机械零件失效概率的预测精度,提出一种基于GRA和AHP的广义回归神经网络零件失效概率预测方法.在分析机械零件失效概率影响因素的基础上,首先利用灰色关联分析法(Grey Relational Analysis,GRA)分析影响机械零件失效概率的主要因素,通过层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)构建机械零件失效概率的评价指标层次体系,评估各个指标对于零件失效概率的权重;结合各个指标权重与初始值,以获取各指标的加权评价值;最后通过广义回归神经网络(Generalized Regression Neural Network,GRNN)建立以各指标加权评价值来预测机械零件失效概率的预测模型.利用本文方法所建立的预测模型对某企业数控转台的上齿盘失效概率进行预测,并与传统的GRNN神经网络预测模型、BP神经网络预测模型和回归预测模型进行对比,结果显示本文所建立的模型预测误差小于0.8%、残差在-0.2%～0.2%范围内,均优于对比模型的预测结果,表明所建立的预测模型具有更高的精度和更强的稳健性,适合于零件失效概率的预测.     

基于模糊层次综合方法的企业内部风险评价

企业的风险管理水平成为决定企业持续发展的关键因素,风险分析与评价是目前风险管理研究中的热点领域.按照企业面临风险的特征,将企业的内部风险因素指标分为组织风险、决策风险、营业风险、财务风险、技术风险、人力资源风险、企业信息风险和信用风险8大类 .在此基础上,提出同时采用层次分析法和主成分分析法进行风险发生概率的评价,必要时辅以模糊综合评价技术对企业内部风险进行分析评价,以提高企业内部风险评价的准确性和科学性.     

基于灰色理论的汽车缺陷风险评估模型

应用事件树方法确定了汽车缺陷风险传递路径,将缺陷风险转化为失效风险进行等效研究. 根据汽车缺陷风险特点,建立了风险评估SPN模型,并以三维矩阵图描述汽车缺陷风险;针对汽车的不合理风险及汽车缺陷数据离散和波动的状态,提出了基于灰色理论的风险预测方法;以失效预测数据作为风险评估的风险概率预测基础,建立汽车缺陷的失效预测模型,采用残差辨识法检验模型精度. 研究结果表明:在掌握实际的汽车售后零部件故障数据情况下,模型对汽车缺陷风险概率预测具有较好的适用性.     

南水北调中线水源工程环境风险评价

研究对象是南水北调中线水源工程与环境复合系统，用层次分析法进行风险识别，用模糊概率──事故树分析法估计风险概率，用统计分析法和类比分析法估计风险后果，最后，用灰色关联分析法和综合指数法进行风险的综合评价。该工程与环境复合系统的主要环境风险事故是溃坝，特大洪水和破坏性地震是其主要致因，溃坝洪水将严重影响大坝下游地区的自然、社会和经济，主要受影响的是荆州地区和襄樊地区。为确保该工程与环境复合系统的安全，应采取有效的风险管理措施。     

技术预测在产品创新过程中的作用分析

技术预测现已成为各国产业布局和产品研发的航向标,成为国家、地区乃至企业在未来制胜的战略高地。一般来讲,技术预测可分为基础研究预测、应用研究预测、开发研究预测。其方法主要有趋势外推法、概率推断法和异同比较法。技术预测可以提高产品研发的精准性和成功率,使企业在行业中具有话语权、定价权,甚至是定标权。     

马氏链在国际工程投标风险预测中的应用

根据国际工程承包的特点，概述国际承包市场现有的主要问题及投标风险研究的必要性，在论证马氏链解决国际工程投标风险预测的适用性后，建立国际工程投标风险预测的马氏链模型。同时，给出利用专家评价法和概率统计确定法来确定转移概率的方法，结合实运用所建立的马氏链预测模型，对国际工程投标的风险预测过程进行了模拟运算，最后求出投标在不同阶段的中标率的风险系数，以提高风险预测的定量化水平和准确程度。     

水库调度中的风险分析及决策方法

针对水库调度的风险问题,探讨了定性风险分析方法和定量风险分析方法,着重探讨了定量风险分析方法中的概率与数理统计分析法、模拟分析法、马尔柯夫过程分析法和模糊数学分析法。引入了不同的风险决策方法,并结合实例进行了分析计算。     

应用极值理论预测开放式基金赎回量

对产生开放式基金流动性风险的主要原因之一开放式基金的巨额赎回做了阐述,将极值理论运用在流动性风险的测量之中·通过分析发现,I型极值分布适用于预测开放式基金赎回量发生的概率,并运用极大似然法对参数进行了估计及拟合优度检验·同时还应用蒙特卡罗方法对所得结果做进一步的模拟实验,对基金赎回量的均值和标准差做出预测·基金管理人可以根据一定的概率,预测出基金的赎回量,进而预留出适当的现金,为合理地规避开放式基金的流动性风险提供了一种很好的预测方法·     

建设项目全寿命周期成本的CIM风险评估模型

建立风险评价指标体系的基础上,运用控制区间和记忆(CIM)模型,辅以层次分析法,建立建设项目全寿命周期成本(LCC)风险评估模型.选用层次分析法确定建设项目LCC在各阶段的风险权重,运用控制区间和记忆模型计算各阶段次级风险因素的概率分布,对建设项目全寿命周期成本风险做出预测和评价.工程实例分析表明:项目风险集中在较低和低风险层次,低风险的可能性最大;设计阶段风险适中的概率较大,而其余阶段都集中于低风险层次.     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Features of Women's language

Language is a means of verbal communication. People use language to communicate with each other. In the society, no two speakers are exactly alike in the way of speaking. Some differences are due to age, gender, statue and personality. Above all, gender is one of the obvious reasons. The writer of this paper tries to describe the features of women＇s language from these perspectives： pronunciation, intonation, diction, subjects, grammar and discourse. From the discussion of the features of women＇s language, more attention should be paid to language use in social context. What＇s more, the linguistic phenomena in a speaking community can be understood more thoroughly.     

An Analysis of Catherine＇s Character——Wuthering Heights

Wuthering Heights, Emily Bronte＇s only novel, was published in December of 1847 under the pseudonym Ellis Bell. The book did not gain immediate success, but it is now thought one of the finest novels in the English language. Catherine is the key character of this masterpiece, because everybody and everything center on her though she had a short life. We can understand this masterpiece better if we know Catherine well.     

Lower Paleozoic oil relationships within Williston Basin, Canada

The Williston Basin is a significant petroleum province, containing oil production zones that include the Middle Cambrian to Lower Ordovician, Upper Ordovician, Middle Devonian, Upper Devonian and Mississippian and within the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The oils of the Williston Basin exhibit a wide range of geochemical characteristics defined as "oil families", although the geochemical signature of the Cambrian Deadwood Formation and Lower Ordovician Winnipeg reservoired oils does not match any "oil family". Despite their close stratigraphic proximity, it is evident that the oils of the Lower Palaeozoic within the Williston Basin are distinct. This suggests the presence of a new "oil family" within the Williston Basin. Diagnostic geochemical signatures occur in the gasoline range chromatograms, within saturate fraction gas chromatograms and biomarker fingerprints. However, some of the established criteria and cross-plots that are currently used to segregate oils into distinct genetic families within the basin do not always meet with success, particularly when applied to the Lower Palaeozoic oils of the Deadwood and Winnipeg Formation.     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.     

Achieving Unusual States of Matter Under High Pressure

正The periodicity of the elements and the non-reactivity of the inner-shell electrons are two related principles of chemistry,rooted in the atomic shell structure.Within compounds,Group I elements,for example,invariably assume the+1 oxidation state,and their chemical properties differ completely from those of the p-block elements.These general rules govern our understanding of chemical structures and reactions.Using first principles calcula-     

Exchange-Correlation and Electronic Excitation Energies from Pairing Matrix Fluctuations

We have developed an adiabatic connection to formulate the ground-state exchange-correlation energy in terms of pairing matrix linear fluctuations.This formulation of the exchange-correlation energy opens a new channel for density functional approximations based on the many-body perturbation theory.We illustrate the potential of such approaches with an approximation based on the particle-particle Random Phase Approximation(pp-RPA).This re-     

Density Functional Theory for the Response of Periodic Systems to Electric Fields Based on the Vector Potential Approach

正The electronic and nuclear(structural/vibrational)response of 1D-3D nanoscale systems to electric fields gives rise to a host of optical,mechanical,spectral,etc.properties that are of high theoretical and applied interest.Due to the computational difficulty of treating such large systems it is convenient to model them as infinite and periodic(at least,in first approximation).The fundamental theoretical/computational problem in doing so is that     

Call for Papers

<正>"The Journal of Shanghai Normal University:Mathematics"is published by Shanghai Normal University as regular issues of The Journal of Shanghai Normal University each year from 2014 in English.The editors-in-chief of the issues are professors Yuhao Cong and Maoan Han.The Journal of Shanghai Normal University was started in 1958 with