新产品开发方案选择的层次分析方法

新产品开发方案选择受多种因素影响，属多属性决策。本文利用层次分析法，提出了新产品开发方案选择的层次分析结构模型，并以建材产品为例进行了应用探讨.     

Ranking environmental projects model based on multicriteria decision-making and the weight sensitivity analysis

With the fast growth of Chinese economic,more and more capital will be invested in environmental projects.How to select the environmental investment projects(alternatives)for obtaining the best environmental quality and economic benefits is an important problem for the decision makers.The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-making model to rank a finite number of alternatives with several and sometimes conflicting criteria.A model for ranking the projects of municipal sewage treatment plants is proposed by using exports' information and the data of the real projects.And,the ranking result is given based on the PROMETHEE method. Furthermore,by means of the concept of the weight stability intervals(WSI),the sensitivity of the ranking results to the size of criteria values and the change of weights value of criteria are discussed.The result shows that some criteria,such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost",will influence the ranking result of alternatives very strong while others not.The influence are not only from the value of criterion but also from the changing the weight of criterion.So,some criteria such as"proportion of benefit to projoct cost" are key critera for ranking the projects. Decision makers must be cautious to them.     

基于前景理论的风险决策权重研究

在讨论Tversky和Fox给出的确定权重的两步骤方法基础上,应用累积前景效用理论和概率权 重函数,提出三步骤权重处理框架,对不同风险不确定决策源类型作不同的处理,并对"获得"和"失去" 采用不同的处理方式,从而使得决策者能够得出更加准确的决策权重.     

ADVANCES IN DECISION ANALYSIS AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR MANAGING LARGE-SCALE ENTERPRISES IN A VOLATILE WORLD： INTEGRATING BENEFITS, OPPORTUNITIES, COSTS AND RISKS （BOCR） WITH THE BUSINESS MOTIVATION MODEL （BMM）

1. Introduction Recent advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have occurred in a number of areas includinginformation quality (Chutimaskul and Wangpipatwong 2004), strategy (Sha, Hung and Lin 2004) organization (Crowne 2004), technological change (Mitchell 2004), and utility1. Introduction Recent advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have occurred in a number of areas includinginformation quality (Chutimaskul and Wangpipatwong 2004), strateg…     

投资项目选择的AHP模型及其应用

探讨了投资项目选择问题的重要性,对常用的投资项目选择方法进行了综合分析。论述了层次分析法应用于投资项目选择的基本过程,提出了投资项目选择的层次分析模型,并以实例说明了如何将层次分析法应用于投资项目选择。     

群决策中两类偏好信息——AHP判断矩阵和模糊偏好关系矩阵的一致化方法

在有限方案的群决策问题中，如何统一具有不同形式的偏好信息是一个新的研究课题。本文针对群决策中决策者给出着于方案的两类偏好信息－AHP判断矩阵和模糊偏好关系矩阵，通过构造转换函数，给出关于这两类偏好信息的一致化方法，这为研究群决策中不同形式偏好信息的集成方法和方案排序打下了坚实的基础，最后给出一个算例。     

A hierarchical multiple criteria model for eliciting relative preferences in conflict situations

A multiple criteria decision analysis(MCDA) approach is designed for capturing the relative preference information of a decision maker involved in a conflict.More specifically,an MCDA approach based on the outranking method,ELECTRE III,is employed for ranking states or possible scenarios in the conflict from most to least preferred,where ties are allowed,for a decision maker according to his or her value system.To demonstrate how this preference elicitation methodology can be conveniently implemented in practice within the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution,it is applied to a real world water supply crisis which occurred in the town of North Battleford,located in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan.     

一个有害物品填埋场选址的决策支持系统

有害物品对环境和人类的危害正在日益加深，对于象中国这样的发展中国家来说有害物品的产量大、危害严重而处理率低。将各人口中心（如城镇）产生的有害物品运送到指定地点（填埋场）集中处理和存放是一条既经济又在技术上可行的方法。本文描述了一个支持有害物品填埋场选址优化决策的决策支持系统。该系统是一集成化的优化系统，它通过以下三个步骤完成优化决策：生成模型、优化模型、打印结果报告。有害物品填埋场选址问题一般涉及以下因素：第一，效率或成本，即填埋场同相关有害物品产生地间的总运输成本；第二，风险，即由于填埋场中的有害物品及运送有害物品的车辆会给填理场及沿途附近环境带来潜在的危害，因而象城镇这样的人口密集地均不希望靠近填埋场及所经路线；第三，风险公平性，填埋场选址的风险可能强加在一部分人头上而使其它相关群体没有或只有很少风险。本文在一个ＤＳＳ上实现了考虑上述目标的模型及优化算法，决策者可按组合方式构造特定情形下的优化选址模型，利用权衡表技术帮助决策者在有冲突目标的方案选择时对各种目标的权衡及其结果有直观地感受。本文对于选址问题的求解是基于优化算法的，因而它可以有效地求解相当复杂的同类问题。     

一种多人递阶资源分配问题的模糊满意解

在同时考虑下层利益冲突和上、下层权力分配的条件下,就多人递阶资源分配问题提出了对决策者模糊满意度进行两步折衷的求解方法.先用下层各部门目标对于资源之影子价格所构成的非冲突函数为权,对下层决策者进行折衷;然后将折衷后的下层视为一个整体,用依据上、下层决策权力所分配的权进行上、下层的折衷,以此得到各个决策者都满意的折衷解.算例表明本文方法的可行性和有效性.     

On Consistency in AHP and Fuzzy AHP

The analytic hierarchy process(AHP) is used widely for analyzing decisions made in various real-world applications. Its basic idea is to construct a hierarchy of concepts encountered in a given decision problem and to choose the best alternative according to pairwise comparison matrices given by the decision maker. Under the assumption of fully rational economics, a reasonable decision should be consistent. It becomes an important issue on how to analyze and ensure the consistency of comparison matrices together with the judgments of the decision maker. The main objectives of the present paper are threefold. First, we review the basic idea and methods used to define the consistency and the transitivity of multiplicative reciprocal matrices, additive reciprocal matrices and comparison matrices with fuzzy interval and triangular fuzzy numbers. The existing controversy behind the applications of fuzzy set theory to the AHP in the literature is presented. Second, the consistency of the collective comparison matrices in group decision making based on AHP and fuzzy AHP is further analyzed. We point out that the weak consistency of preference relations with fuzzy numbers in fuzzy AHP and group decision making should be investigated comprehensively. Third, under the consideration of the vagueness in the process of evaluating the judgements, a new concept of fuzzy consistency of comparison matrices in the AHP is given.     

DSS信息组织技术的现状与未来

DSS是一种为管理服务的信息系统。在现代社会, 决策任务、决策环境及决策过程是复杂多变的, 因此, 在这种信息系统中, 信息组织的结构、形态及加工处理方法, 都要与复杂多变的决策任务、决策环境及决策过程相适应, 才能为用户提供有效的决策支持。本文在回顾DSS二十年的发展历程中, 已经取得的信息组织技术成就基础上, 阐述了需要继续研究的各种技术方法, 并对进入21世纪未来十年DSS信息组织技术研究可能取得的突破作了进一步展望。     

基于模糊指派的多目标多工程选址决策

提出了一种新的多个工程选址的多目标决策方法 .运用模糊关系合成矩阵将各种情况下的多目标工程选址问题转化为模糊指派或模糊广义指派问题 ,并用传统的匈牙利算法来求解 .最后给出一个应用实例.     

考虑可信度和方案偏好的犹豫模糊决策方法

研究了对方案有偏好的犹豫模糊多属性决策问题。对每一个评价值给出相应的可信度,用来表示决策者对专业领域的熟悉程度。基于可信度提出几个犹豫模糊信息关联度公式,并讨论了它们之间的关系。基于决策者的主观偏好与客观偏好之间的关联度建立属性权重模型。给出一种考虑可信度且对方案有偏好的犹豫模糊多属性决策方法。算例证明了所提方法的有效性。     

多目标线性规划模糊决策的加权集成方法

在已有多目标线性规划问题研究的基础上，探讨了加权算术平均算子和加权极大极小算子的性质以及在目标可补偿性的各种情况下求解的方法，利用这两种加权算子，不仅可以保证得到有效解而且随着权重的变化可以得到全部的有效解，在此基础上提出了改进的两阶段法。所提方法在实际决策过程中不仅具有可靠理论基础，而且也给决策者提供了更多的选择余地。     

信息不确定下的主动打断项目组合选择问题鲁棒优化

在项目组合选择问题中,历史数据的缺乏以及预测和估计过程中出现的不可避免的误差,会导致模型中的参数无法被准确地估计,进而给决策带来巨大的风险.因此,构建合适的鲁棒优化模型,为企业提供能有效应对参数不确定性的鲁棒解,对企业的风险防范具有极其重要的现实意义.本文首先对确定参数下的主动打断项目组合选择问题数学模型的特点进行了分析.进一步地,介绍了鲁棒优化问题中不确定情境集的概念,并给出了允许管理者根据其偏好确定不确定情境集大小的方法,构建了全新的基于情境的鲁棒优化模型,进而计算出在所规定的不确定情境集内的最坏情境下能保持可行性与最优性的鲁棒解,实现了鲁棒性与最优性间的权衡,最后,通过GAMS/BARON进行了算例分析,验证了模型的合理性与有效性.从理论上,本文首次将鲁棒优化理论扩展到了主动打断项目组合选择问题中,针对现有的项目组合选择问题鲁棒优化理论仅能应对有限个可行解的不足之处,提出了一类新的鲁棒优化方法,使其能够应对具有无穷多可行解的主动打断项目组合问题.从实践上,随着我国高新产业的发展,具有超前性与特殊性的研究与发展(RD)、信息科技与信息系统(IT/IS)等新兴项目的投资日益受到重视.相较于传统项目,这类项目的高度不确定性使得探究项目组合选择问题的鲁棒优化理论日益迫切.故而本文的研究具有明显的理论价值和现实意义.     

基于满意度函数的群决策排序方法

针对层次分析法中决策成员对决策元素的两两比较判断值与群体偏好值往往会偏离的情形,提出基于满意度函数的群体决策排序方法.该方法利用基于离差的满意度函数,通过建立偏好度集结的目标规划来确定层次分析法中的属性权重.该方法能避免目前多数研究中仅将决策成员当成信,包提供者的情况.还能解决判断值缺失下的群体偏好度集结问题与决策成员的不同权重问题.最后给出一个具体的算例证明该方法有效.     

IDSS: Designing to Extend the Cognitive Limits

The paper presents the conceptual and operational basis of the creation of IDSS based on our recent research experience. In this paper, an intelligent decision support system, IDSS is defined as: any interactive system that is specially designed to improve the decision making of its user by extending the user's cognitive decision making abilities. As a result, this view of man-machine joint cognitive system stresses the need to use computational technology to aid the user in the decision making process. And the human's role is to achieve total systems's objectives. The paper outlines the designing procedure in successive steps. First, the decision maker's cognitive needs for decision support are identified. Second, the computationally realizable support functions are defined that could be provided by IDSS. Then, the specific techniques that would best fill the decision needs are discussed. And finally, for system implementation the modern computational technology infrastructure is emphasized.     

An analytic hierarchy process model of group consensus

In group decision making, a certain degree of consensus is necessary to derive a meaningful and valid outcome. This paper proposes a consensus reaching model for a group by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）. It supports people to improve their group consensus level through an updating of their judgments. In this model, a moderator suggests the most discoraant aeclslon manet to update his judgment in each step. The proposed consensus reaching model allows decision makers to accept or reject the suggestion from the moderator. This model ensures that the judgment updating is effective and the final solution will be of acceptable consistency. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed consensus reaching model.     

IDSS: Designing to Extend the Cognitive Limits

The paper presents the conceptual and operational basis of the creation of IDSS basedon our recent research experiences.In this paper,an intelligent decision support system,IDSS isdefined as:"any interactive system that is specially desinged to improve the decision making of its     

灰色群组聚类和改进CRITIC赋权的供应商选择VIKOR多属性决策

针对武器装备供应商选择问题, 提出了一种基于灰色群组(grey group clustering, GGC)和改进标准间冲突性相关性(improved criteria importance through intercriteria correlation, ICRITIC)组合赋权的扩展多属性妥协解(VIKOR)决策方法。采用考虑决策专家意见差异程度的群层次分析法对供应商初选指标体系进行降维遴选, 构建武器装备供应商优选指标体系; 结合GGC和ICRITIC组合赋权方法确定主客观权重, 并设计权偏好系数进行加法组合赋权; 基于VIKOR决策方法集结备选供应商折衷排序值。针对不同折衷系数、排序方法和赋权方法从决策灵活性和稳定性两个维度进行对比分析, 验证所提方法的有效性。