PREDECESSOR-SET TECHNIQUE FOR RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF A STOCHASTIC MANUFACTURING SYSTEM

This paper studies the reliability evaluation of a stochastic manufacturing system with multiple production lines in parallel.Multiple repairs and different failure rates,never simultaneously addressed in earlier works,are taken into account.First,a revised graphical methodology integrating transformation and decomposition is utilized to construct the stochastic manufacturing system as a multi-state manufacturing network(MSMN).In particular,a "predecessor-set" technique is proposed to deal with multiple repairs.An algorithm is proposed to generate the lowest capacity vectors(LCVs)that stations should provide to satisfy the workloads.Subsequently,the system reliability of the MSMN,which is defined as the probability of demand satisfaction,is calculated in terms of the LCVs.A real case of a printed circuit board manufacturing system is utilized to demonstrate how the system reliability can be evaluated.A further decision making issue is addressed based on the derived system reliability.     

Capacitated stochastic coloured Petri net-based approach for computing two-terminal reliability of multi-state network

Classical network reliability problems assume both networks and components have only binary states,fully working or fully failed states.But many actual networks are multi-state,such as communication networks and transportation networks.The nodes and arcs in the networks may be in intermediate states which are not fully working either fully failed.A simulation approach for computing the two-terminal reliability of a multi-state network is described.Two-terminal reliability is defined as the probability that d units of demand can be supplied from the source to sink nodes under the time threshold T.The capacities of arcs may be in a stochastic state following any discrete or continuous distribution.The transmission time of each arc is also not a fixed number but stochastic according to its current capacity and demand.To solve this problem,a capacitated stochastic coloured Petri net is proposed for modelling the system behaviour.Places and transitions respectively stand for the nodes and arcs of a network.Capacitated transition and self-modified token colour with route information are defined to describe the multi-state network.By the simulation,the two-terminal reliability and node importance can be estimated and the optimal route whose reliability is highest can also be given.Finally,two examples of different kinds of multistate networks are given.     

System reliability of assured accuracy rate for multi-state computer networks from service level agreements viewpoint

From the viewpoint of service level agreements, the transmission accuracy rate is one of critical performance indicators to assess internet quality for system managers and customers. Under the assumption that each arc＇s capacity is deterministic, the quickest path problem is to find a path sending a specific of data such that the transmission time is minimized. However, in many real-life networks such as computer networks, each arc has stochastic capacity, lead time and accuracy rate. Such a network is named a multi-state computer network. Under both assured accuracy rate and time constraints, we extend the quickest path problem to compute the probability that d units of data can be sent through multiple minimal paths simultaneously. Such a probability named system reliability is a performance indicator to provide to managers for understanding the ability of system and improvement. An efficient algorithm is proposed to evaluate the system reliability in terms of the approach of minimal paths.     

Estimated and exact system reliabilities of a maintainable computer network

This paper presents an algorithm to evaluate estimated and exact system reliabilities for a computer network in the cloud computing environment. From the quality of service (QOS) viewpoint, the computer network should be maintained when falling to a specific state such that it cannot afford enough capacity to satisfy demand. Moreover, the transmission time should be concerned as well. Thus, the data can be sent through several disjoint minimal paths simultaneously to shorten the transmission time. Under the maintenance budget B and time constraint T, we evaluate the system reliability that d units of data can be sent from the cloud to the client through multiple paths. Two procedures are integrated in the proposed algorithm-an estimation procedure for estimated system reliability and an adjusting procedure utilizing the branch-and-bound approach for exact system reliability. Subsequently, the estimated system reliability with lower bound and upper bound, and exact system reliability are computed by applying the recursive sum of disjoint products (RSDP) algorithm.     

具有不确定性的多态系统可靠性

在对多态系统进行可靠性分析时,由于很难精确地估算元素各个状态的概率,人们常常利用模糊隶属函数及概率区间来表示这些概率。介绍了用模糊及区间模型估算多态系统可靠性的方法,并介绍了元素不确定性重要度的算法。在LevV.Utkin提出的元素不确定性重要度算法基础之上,提出了不确定性重要度的改进算法。改进算法不仅全面考虑了区间概率的不同含义,而且提高了可靠性分析的精度和可信度。     

具有多维诊断参数系统的检测策略研究

研究具有多维诊断参数系统的可靠性和检测策略问题.为了判定系统是正常还是异常,每隔一段随机时间对系统检测一次,检测结果有可能出现错误,而诊断参数是多维随机变量.系统处于正常和异常状态的时间分别服从参数不同的指数分布,系统的修理时间是连续型随机变量,检测周期为任意随机变量.利用概率分析、补充变量和最优化方法,导出了系统的可靠性指标和最优检测策略.     

基于HGERT网络模型的退化型失效可靠性评估

针对退化型失效的复杂装备系统,提出基于隐图解评审技术(hidden graphic evaluation and review technique,HGERT)网络模型来进行系统可靠性预计和评估的方法。图解评审法(graphic evaluation and review technique,GERT)网络中的节点代表装备失效过程中正常状态到失效状态的转移,通过传感器将反映系统隐性状态的性能特征参数进行量化输入,从而将GERT网络中的各个劣化状态节点进行展开。应用Viterbi算法对模型参数进行解码和学习,确定退化型失效系统状态转移概率。将装备运行中所处的工作应力、环境载荷等影响性能衰退的因素作为输入,将关键性能指标退化量作为输出,建立装备性能退化的一般控制模型并将其作为GERT网络活动传递的随机变量。借助于信号流图理论对参数进行解析,监测系统处于不同状态时的性能退化水平,为故障预测和装备健康管理提供支持。案例通过对铣床性能退化量的分析,证明所构模型的可行性和合理性。     

基于d-最小割集的多状态网络可靠度矩阵分解算法

鉴于基于d-最小割集应用容斥原理计算多状态网络可靠度精确值的复杂性, 借鉴分解的思想, 基于事件并运算之间的吸收律, 通过定义d-最小割集矩阵及矩阵概率, 提出了一种矩阵分解算法. 算法的基础是在一定规则下反复对矩阵进行分解、简化, 并通过迭代计算矩阵概率得到可靠度精确值. 同时, 通过定义删除函数以及动态选择分解边加速分解过程. 相关分析表明算法的复杂度随网络中边的数目成指数增加. 算例分析表明算法计算结果正确, 且结构清晰、易于实现, 验证了其正确性和有效性.     

Analysis of Reliability for 3-State Device Network with Link-Capacities

1.INTRODUCTION2-statesystemreliabilityoftenassumesthatthesystemisrepresentedbyaprobabilisticgraphG=(V,E),withasetV~{yi,v2,'',}ofvenicesandasetE~{el,e2,'',}ofedges(orlinks,branches)containedinit.Thesystemisfunctioningifthereexistsapathfromtheinputnodetotheoutputnode.Thusthereliabilityisconsideredwithamatterofconnectivityonlyandthereliabilityanalysishasbeenprimarilyconcernedwiththeenumerationofpathesorcutsinthereferences[1-4].Butinmanyphysicalsystemsuchaspowertransmissionsystems,oilorwat…     

基于堵塞割集评估随机流动网络的可靠性

基于流动单元在网络中随机流动的特点,提出一种新的网络模型——随机流动网络;建立了该网络模型中个体流动单元随机流动的饱和流模型。网络有多种饱和状态并且总有相对应的堵塞割集。尝试用两端点网络饱和流值不小于给定需求的概率评估网络实际流通能力的可靠性。基于饱和流模型,可以仿真出网络中饱和流分布及各弧流量分布情况;利用网络中堵塞割集弧流量分布建立了评估网络可靠性的表达式。最后通过实例分析给定不同网络需求时相对应的可靠性。     

Algorithmof communication network reliability combining links,nodes and capacity

1 .INTRODUCTIONWhen communication networkis studied macroscopi-cally,exchange nodes ,links and transmission capaci-ty are the most i mportant parameters .If all these pa-rameters are consideredtogether ,the performancein-dex of communication network can be objectivelyshown.In Refs .[1 ,2] the reliabilityindex of a com-munication network whichintegrates the capacity andthe connection reliability of the links is defined.InRef .[1] ,the reliabilityindexis defined as the trans-mission probab…     

多状态系统故障树的一种生成方法

介绍一种多状态系统故障树生成方法．首先对传统的可靠性框图方法加以改进,提出一种新的框图分析方法．然后在可靠性框图分析的基础上,依据判定表,自动生成故障树．本方法适合多状态系统可靠性分析     

利用极小割计算随机流网络可靠度的一种算法

对随机流网络可靠度的计算问题进行了研究.提出了网络元件(边和结点)容量下确界的概念,在求基于每个极小割集的每个元件的容量向量时,对其满足的约束条件进行了改进,使其可行解集合大大减小.同时给出了两个引理,根据这两个引理,使得求基于极小割集的所有d-上界点变得非常简单,从而得到了一个计算随机流网络最大流量不少于给定需求流量d+1的可靠度的有效算法.最后,通过实例验证了该方法的有效性.     

节点相依失效下的方格网络可靠性建模与分析

以二维方格网络为拓扑结构,在考虑同一地理区域节点存在共因失效关系、同一类节点存在关联失效关系、网络体系结构存在协议层与层之间的级联失效关系等3 种依赖关系的条件下,建立失效概率的依赖模型来模拟节点相依失效。以节点之间连通的概率为可靠性测度,利用Monte Carlo 法进行近似计算,分析依赖关系对网络可靠性的影响。研究表明,级联失效比共因失效带给网络可靠性的影响更大;关联失效带来的影响是灾难性的,尽管节点自身失效概率很小,只要关联程度足够大,就会使节点故障在网络中快速传播。     

A performance evaluation index system for multimedia communication networks and forecasting for web-based network traffic

This paper presents a new index system for the performance evaluation and network planning of multimedia communication systems using measurement on actual systems to support several different traffic types. In this index system, we develop an expert system to evaluate the performance of such multimedia communication networks including channel utilization and call blocking probability and packet delay, and apply the network planning methods to optimize the networks and forecast the demand of the growing multimedia communications systems. Two important planning problems for the multimedia communication systems are presented: optimization problem for construction of the world system and forecast problem for increasing traffic demands. We first discuss analysis methods, performance measures for the multimedia communication systems. Then, we describe network planning methods for the multimedia communication systems and give some efficiency network planning methods. Finally, we present some results studied in     

一种不改变RBD拓扑结构的三态贝叶斯网络

针对将可靠性框图(RBD)转化为等价三层贝叶斯网络(BN)时存在的与RBD结构差异大的缺陷及组合爆炸问题,提出了一种将RBD转化为同构三态BN网络的方法.通过将失效分为"物理故障"和"正常却不工作"两种模式,提出将网络节点转换为包含正常状态以及上述两种失效模式的三态节点,取代仅有正常和失效两种模式的传统模型节点.并在此基础上深入分析了三态BN模型节点的条件概率表(CPT)设置方法.最后建立了与某型飞机航行任务RBD等价的三层BN模型和同构三态BN模型,并对两种BN进行分析计算.理论和实例分析均表明,本文建立的三态BN不仅与原RBD拓扑结构相同,且能够有效解决三层BN存在的组合爆炸问题,可成为系统可靠性分析的有效手段.     

具有温储备失效和延迟修理的M/G/1可修排队系统的可靠性指标

本文考虑了具有温储备失效特征的M/G/1可修排队系统.在该系统中,服务台故障分为两类:第一类是服务台在服务员的"广义忙期"中以故障率为α(0≤α∞)的泊松过程发生故障,第二类是服务台在系统闲期中以分布函数为Y(t)的更新过程发生故障,而且发生第二类故障时不能得到立即修理.利用全概率分解技术和拉普拉斯变换工具,分别讨论了在两类故障模式下服务台的瞬态不可用度和稳态不可用度,(0,t]时间内的平均故障次数和稳态故障频度等可靠性指标,进一步还讨论了服务台由温储备失效引起等待修理的概率.最后,通过数值计算例子讨论了系统有关参数对服务台的第二类稳态不可用度和第二类稳态故障频度的影响.     

考虑时间相关故障的多状态系统可靠性与任务成功性仿真评估方法

针对考虑时间相关故障、多状态性能输出、系统冗余储备等因素的系统可靠性与任务成功性评估问题使用解析法难以建模求解, 而一般仿真方法又存在抽样效率慢和估值精度低的问题, 提出具有时间相关故障抽样与统计方差减小相结合的蒙特卡罗仿真评估方法。首先,设计了非指数剩余分布抽样的数值计算方法, 实现了时间相关故障的随机事件抽样。其次,在此基础上结合受迫转移、失效偏倚等方差减小方法, 提高了小概率事件的仿真抽样效率, 改善了仿真评估方法的估值精度。最后,通过舰船航渡任务的算例, 验证了该方法对评估复杂系统行为和故障机制条件下系统可靠性及任务成功性的合理性和有效性。     

基于模糊概率的多状态贝叶斯网络可靠性分析

利用贝叶斯网络对多状态系统进行可靠性分析时,各根节点不同状态的精确概率难以获得。因此提出了把模糊理论与贝叶斯网络方法相结合,将不同专家给出的根节点各状态发生概率的语言变量转化为三角模糊数,并经过均值化、解模糊和归一化得到不同状态的发生概率的精确值。将其代入多状态贝叶斯网络中,计算叶节点不同状态的发生概率,进而计算各根节点的后验概率及风险增加当量重要度。通过实例分析验证了该方法的可行性。应用该方法能够提高贝叶斯网络处理不确定性问题的能力,使其在解决多状态不确定性系统可靠性和安全性问题时发挥更大的作用。     

区域通行能力与出行时间可靠性综合仿真模型

在城市路网中,路段通行能力退化和交通需求随机波动都会增加路网的不确定性。为研究路网中单个区域的交通可靠性问题,通过采用区域备用能力作为综合性能指标,建立了度量区域交通服务水平的双层规划模型。基于此提出了区域通行能力和出行时间综合可靠度的概念及其Monte Carlo仿真算法。最后通过一个数值算例对模型和仿真算法进行验证,仿真结果说明了区域通行能力、服务水平与可靠性之间的相互替代关系。