Application of Disaggregated Logit Modeling with Stated Preference Method in Park and Ride Behavior for Non-local Private Car Travelers in Big Events

During big events, non-local private car travelers can be divided into two types which were returning in one day and in several days. It was demonstrated that those two kinds of travelers have distinct behavior on park and ride （P＆R）, due to their different travel demand and behavior attributes. In this paper focusing on the travelers returning in several days, the travel attributes and requirements for P＆R were analyzed with stated preference survey. A P＆R choice behavior disaggregated logit model was established and calibrated based on random utility theory. The model concludes three variables, which were travel time, parking fee and comprehensive attractiveness index for suburban satellite towns comparing to urban district. The results revealed that for travelers returning in several days the primary key point is increasing the attractiveness of suburban satellite towns.     

New method for detection fusion of MAC based on DCM and NP rule

The problem of distributed detection fusion using multiple sensors for remote underwater target detection is studied. Considering that multiple access channel (MAC) schemes are able to offer high efficiency in bandwidth usage and consume less energy than the parallel access channel (PAC), the MAC scheme is introduced into the underwater target detection field. The model of underwater distributed detection fusion based on MAC schemes is established. A new method for detection fusion of MAC based on deflection coefficient maximization (DCM) and Neyman-Pearson (NP) rule is proposed. Under the power constraint of local sensors, this paper uses the DCM theory to derive the optimal weight coefficients and offsets. The closed-form expressions of detection probability and false alarm probability for fusion systems are obtained. The optimal detection performance of fusion systems is analyzed and deeply researched. Both the theory analysis and simulation experiments indicate that the proposed method could improve the detection performance and decrease the error probability effectively under power constraints of local sensors and low signal to noise ratio.     

FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS- DEPENDENCE AND FEEDBACK IN DECISION-MAKING WITH A SINGLE NETWORK

The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a multicriteria theory of measurement used to derive relative priority scales of absolute numbers from individual judgments (or from actual measurements normalized to a relative form) that also belong to a fundamental scale of absolute numbers. These judgments represent the relative influence, of one of two elements over the other in a pairwise comparison process on a third element in the system, with respect to an underlying control criterion. Through its supermatrix, whose entries are themselves matrices of column priorities, the ANP synthesizes the outcome of dependence and feedback within and between clusters of elements. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with its independence assumptions on upper levels from lower levels and the independence of the elements in a level is a special case of the ANP. The ANP is an essential tool for articulating our understanding of a decision problem. One had to overcome the limitation of linear hierarchic structures and their     

Simulation method for reliability of TT&C mission with high redundancy and small time horizon

The tracking, telemetry and command (TT&C) mission is extremely reliable for its characters of small time horizon and high redundancy. The combined forcing and failure biasing (CFFB) method that is usually used for simulating the unreliability of the highly dependable mission system seems not so efficient for the TT&C mission. The concept about the importance of failure transition is proposed based on the logical relationship between TT&C mission and its involved resources. Then, the importance is used for readjusting the transition rate of the failure transition when using the forcing and failure biasing during the simulation. Examples show that the improved CFFB method can evidently increase the occurrence of the TT&C mission failure event and decrease the sample variance. More redundancy of the TT&C mission leads to the improved CFFB method more efficient.     

A Model for Water Quality Assessment Based on the Information Entropy and Its Application in the Case of Huiji River

Based on the information entropy, a model for water quality assessment is Using this model, the paper gives a case study on the water quality assessment River. The space-time variation law of the water quality is analyzed also in this result indicates that the model possesses some clear mathematic and physical and it is simple, practical and accurate.     

LOWER BOUNDS OF RAMSEY NUMBERS

The lower bounds for any R(l_1,…,l_q;r)are investigated.Let K_n~r be the completer-uniform hypergraph on n points.Define R(l_1,…,l_q;r)as the minimal natural number n sothat if the edges of K_n~r are q-colored,there is a set S of l_i(i∈{1,…,q})vertices such that alledges on S are of the i-th color.For the special case of q=r=2,the lower bounds were got byP.Erd(?)s and J.Spencer.In this paper,we shall give the lower bounds for any R(l_1,…,l_q;r).     

Robust On-Line Fault Diagnosis for Nonlinear Difference-Algebraic Systems Using Least Squares Estimate

A new robust on-line fault diagnosis method based on least squares estimate for nonlinear difference-algebraic systems (DAS) with uncertainties is proposed. Based on the known nominal model of the DAS, this method firstly constructs an auxiliary system consisting of a difference equation and an algebraic equation, then, based on the relationship between the state deviation and the faults in the difference equation and the relationship between the algebraic variable deviation and the faults in algebraic equation, it identifies the faults on-line through least squares estimate. This method can not only detect, isolate and identify faults for DAS, but also give the upper bound of the error of fault identification. The simulation results indicate that it can give satisfactory diagnostic results for both abrupt and incipient faults.     

Call for Papers：International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management

October 25 to 27,2006, Troyes, France http ://www.utt.fr/ieee-sssm06/Sponsored by Service Systems and Organization Committee, IEEE Systems, Man and Cybernetics SocietyIEEEThemeService is an emerging sector for economic growth in the 21st century. It covers our daily life and almost all industries, from medical care to the production of high-tech products. A nation's economic evolution highly relies on its service systems and service management. The production of a product in a manufacturing plant may be interrupted because of the shortage of required components caused by an unreliable logistics service. The living standard of people in a country may be degraded because of its ineffective medical care system. In the information era where the industrialized world is no longer characterized by scarcity of merchandises, service and quality of life have become the primary focus for social and economic development.Given the increasing importance, the complexity, and the interdisciplinary nature of service systems and service management, it is essential to bring researchers and professionals from all relevant disciplines (system theory and systems engineering, marketing and organizational behavior, logistics and operations management, quality assurance, information technology, etc) together to discuss issues and share their research and development results and experiences in the areas of service systems and service management, in order to develop innovative and advanced concepts, strategies, system design and operations management methods for the 21st century's service. Authors are invited to submit their     

On functional decomposition of multivariate polynomials with differentiation and homogenization

This paper gives a theoretical analysis for the algorithms to compute functional decomposition for multivariate polynomials based on differentiation and homogenization which were proposed by Ye,Dai,and Lam(1999) and were developed by Faugere,Perret(2006,2008,2009).The authors show that a degree proper functional decomposition for a set of randomly decomposable quartic homogenous polynomials can be computed using the algorithm with high probability.This solves a conjecture proposed by Ye,Dai,and Lam(1999).The authors also propose a conjecture which asserts that the decomposition for a set of polynomials can be computed from that of its homogenization and show that the conjecture is valid with high probability for quartic polynomials.Finally,the authors prove that the right decomposition factors for a set of polynomials can be computed from its right decomposition factor space.     

组织适应性学习、联盟网络结构与网络外部性市场演化

从两种互不兼容技术同时扩散的视角出发,运用行为经济学理论分析了组织适应性学习和组织网络结构的交互作用对网络外部性市场的技术演化的影响。仿真结果表明：组织适应性学习的类型和强度以及联盟网络结构的聚集效应特征是驱动网络外部性市场演化的重要因素,在一定程度上决定了市场演化的均衡结果。当组织采取强化型学习行为时,市场演化的均衡结果总是两种技术共存;当组织采取信念型学习行为时,在组织学习效应很强且联盟网络结构聚集效应特征不明显的条件下,市场演化呈现赢家通吃现象,反之依然为两种技术共存。这些结论有助于企业进一步理解网络外部性市场演化的内在机制和赢家通吃的边界条件。     

问题情境、注意力质量与组织从偶发事件中学习:以民用航空事故为例

近年来,组织从偶发事件中学习已成为组织学习研究领域的一个热点议题,但是现有研究较多关注当前发生的单次偶发事件,忽视了当前偶发事件与曾经发生的相关偶发事件之间的内在联系,而这些相关偶发事件的叠加能够强化组织所面临的问题情境,通过影响注意力质量来改变组织从偶发事件中学习的成效.因此,本研究利用20年间美国民用航空产业所经历的安全事故数据,从稳定性和发散性两个方面检验了问题情境中组织注意力质量与组织从偶发事件中学习成效之间的关系.注意力稳定性的作用体现在:偶发事件之前重复发生的次数越多、相关偶发事件的时间间隔越大,则组织从偶发事件中学习成效越好;注意力发散性的作用体现在:一定时期内组织所在行业全部偶发事件原因的发散程度与组织从偶发事件中学习成效呈现U型关系,而本组织全部偶发事件原因的发散程度与组织从偶发事件中学习成效呈现倒U型关系.     

Toward Fostering Systems Learning in Organizational Contexts

This article explores the ways in which the process of systems learning can be nurtured in organizational contexts. I posit that in order to mobilize systems learning at the individual, group, and organizational levels, an integrated, holistic approach must be pursued. It is suggested that the challenge of not only teaching the systems thinking concepts but also using their actual applications in practice is more than just an issue of pedagogical improvement. The cultural and material issues integral to the use of systems thinking must be taken into consideration as well. I argue that our efforts to improve our pedagogical practices to foster systems learning in organizational contexts can benefit from the social constructivist perspective, which represents a system of ideas about learning. The qualities of systems pedagogy resided in social constructivism are proposed as a framework to think with in designing the meaningful systems learning activities. This article also discusses how to create the cultural and material environments in which the process of systems learning can be nurtured.     

From Bureaucracy to Learning Organization: Critical Minimum Specification Design as Space for Sensemaking

What does it take of a municipal organization to be a significant participant in the dynamic, learning oriented interaction within a triple helix constellation of partners aimed at regional development? The short answer is that it needs to develop the receptivity (Morgan, 1996) and the flexibility to act in novel ways, which are the traits of a learning organization. However, how these abilities are enhanced in organizations that are basically organized as bureaucracies aimed at maintaining a stable and standardized function of its operations, is an under-researched phenomenon within the triple helix discussions. In this paper, I investigate this question through an analysis of a change and development process within a municipal organization that aimed to enhance the capacity of the organization to interact receptively and dynamically with their environment, by changing their organizational structure from a bureaucratic to a post-bureaucratic type. The main finding is that rather than the new formal structure as such; it is the process of sensemaking following the introduction of this new formal structure that creates the capacity for learning and development. However, this outcome is dependent on the sensemaking process being turned over from a defensive mode into a learning oriented mode. The paper explores how this turn may be facilitated.     

团队领导学习策略对组织学习影响的仿真研究

组织学习领域的已有研究主要探讨了团队领导如何在组织学习过程中发挥重要的支持性作用,但却忽视了团队领导个人学习对组织学习的直接影响.以此不足为切入点,提出团队领导应根据外部环境特征采取不同的学习策略来与其他成员开展双向学习互动.一系列基于agent的计算机仿真实验结果表明:当外部环境平稳时,团队领导应采取平衡型的个人学习策略,既要通过自身学习促进组织知识的积累,同时又要激发下属主动寻找答案解决问题,避免下属对团队领导的个人知识产生依赖;当外部环境持续变化时,团队领导应采取减弱与团队工作任务相关的个人学习的策略,促进差异化知识在组织内部存留与传播,进而衍生出能够适应新环境的全新解决方案,提高组织整体适应变化环境的能力.     

组织行为学专家系统开发工具的研制与应用

概述了传统计算机软件在组织行为学领域中的应用现状及存在的问题, 指出可借助于专家系统技术解决这些问题, 即研制出“组织行为学专家系统开发工具”, 使得领域专家运用该工具即可制作出适用的专家系统, 本文介绍该工具的基本功能和基本的制作方法, 并结合具体实例介绍了如何运用该工具制作组织行为学领域的专家系统。     

Systems Thinking and Systems Practice: Working in the Fifth Dimension

This paper describes how a messy organizational problem was tackled using a systems approach which led to a resolution of the problem and to an improvement in the working relationships of the people involved. The example also shows how people who are not familiar with systems thinking, as such, can quickly be helped to develop a shared systemic view of a complex situation using activity modeling. At a deeper level, the paper also shows how the underlying dynamics of the problem situation was altered as a result of using a cooperative, dialogical working method, leading to an improvement in the quality of service provided by that part of the organization. The paper uses Peter Senge's five disciplines of a learning organization, together with various systems concepts, as a framework for describing how the process of change was brought about through the simultaneous management of task and social processes, leading to both individual and organizational learning.     

移动应用供应链中考虑质量与交付期约束的合作契约设计

考虑由ERP厂商、APP厂商与客户企业组成的移动应用供应链,针对ERP厂商与APP厂商产品与服务合作中客户企业的需求存在变更、ERP厂商提供的售前服务会影响软件开发质量等问题,构建以ERP厂商为主导的两阶段动态博弈模型。设计了基于固定支付、提前交付奖励与维护成本共担的合作契约,分析了客户企业的需求变更、交付期约束等对合作双方的交付策略以及供应链总利润的影响。研究表明：随着客户企业对交付期的要求不同,以及需求分布的均值在不同范围内变动,合作双方的产品交付策略有准时交付高质量、准时交付等质量、提前交付高质量以及提前交付等质量4种策略;若客户企业对交付期的要求小于临界值,需求变动不影响供应链成员的决策与总利润;若对交付期的要求大于临界值且需求变动的均值大于某一阈值,需求变动会影响供应链成员的决策与总利润;若对交付期的要求大于临界值且需求变动的均值小于阈值,合作过程中无论由APP厂商或ERP厂商决策交付时间均不影响合作绩效,且需求变动不影响供应链成员的决策与总利润。     

Toward a Holistic View of Staff Development of Regional Tutorial Staff at the Open University

This paper presents a personal account of the theory and practice of staff development of Open University (OU) tutorial staff, based on nearly 30 years' experience, during which I have consciously reflected on my work, continually building on what has seemed important. It results from an extensive process of reflection in which I have tried to capture an understanding of what I do, with the aid of systems models. Some of the basic assumptions and systems models I present have more or less stood the test of time for a number of years; others are the result of my latest reflections. I show how I have used systems concepts and methods to form a coherent, holistic framework for developing tutorial staff in the East Anglian Region of the OU. Two aspects of this work are emphasized: first, the role that staff development can play in improving tutors' basic skills and understanding of their role; second, how the quality of their work is managed through using feedback and the notions of single- and double-loop learning. An important feature of this work has been the setting-up of communities of practice which enable learning by individual tutors to be shared with their peers and transformed into organizational learning for general use. Starting with some basic assumptions about staff development, a number of systemic models are presented which fit into a coherent framework, linking theory to practice and embodying Rene Dubos' (1972) well-known dictum to "Think globally, act locally."     

考虑交付质量和交付期约束的移动应用供应链决策与协调

针对由ERP厂商、APP厂商与客户企业组成的移动应用供应链,考虑客户企业对软件质量与交付时间存在约束,ERP厂商的售前服务会影响软件开发质量等问题,构建了基于软件质量与交付时间的收益模型,分析了分散与集中决策下双方的最优决策策略以及APP厂商的售后维护成本分担比例与应急成本对双方决策水平的影响,比较了两种决策下对应的合作绩效,提出了双向成本分担与提前交付奖励的供应链协调策略.研究表明:随客户企业的质量感知度增大,ERP厂商通过适当延长交付时间产生的质量改进效应大于延长交付期产生的负效应,使总效应增加;当客户企业的交付期敏感程度小于临界值时,ERP厂商可通过交付高质量软件产品提高自身利润,当交付期敏感程度大于临界值时,可通过提前交付提高自身利润;通过对供应链进行协调,可使原本因无法满足客户企业对质量与交付期的要求而使双方放弃合作的情形变得可合作,使原本可合作时双方的合作绩效与利润更高;当APP厂商独自承担售后维护成本时,实施供应链协调产生的价值大于双方共同承担时对应的值.